Duke 82, Virginia 63

Here's the chart from tonight's game against the Cavs:

Player	Off. Poss.	Off. PPP	Def. Poss.	Def. PPP
Paulus-on	55.5	1.32	56	.84
Paulus-off	13.5	.67	12	1.33
Redick-on	59	1.29	58.5	.91
Redick-off	10	.60	9.5	1.05
Dockery-on	49	1.18	49.5	.95
Dockery-off	20	1.20	18.5	.86
McRoberts-on	37.5	1.07	37.5	.91
McRoberts-off	31.5	1.33	30.5	.95
Williams-on	62	1.31	61	.90
Williams-off	7	.14	7	1.14
Melchionni-on	33.5	1.28	34.5	.90
Melchionni-off	35.5	1.10	33.5	.96
Nelson-on	36.5	1.01	34.5	.99
Nelson-off	32.5	1.38	33.5	.87
Pocius-on	5	.4	63.5	.90
Pocius-off	64	1.25	4.5	1.33
Boykin-on	3	.00	2	2.00
Boykin-off	66	1.24	66	.89
Boateng-on	2	.00	1	2.00
Boateng-off	67	1.22	67	.91
J. Davidson-on	2	.00	1	2.00
J. Davidson-off	67	1.22	67	.91
Team Totals	69	1.188	68	.926

Williams had a fantastic game - for those of you scoring at home, that's 8-1 UVA while he was on the bench, and 81-55 Duke the rest of the time. Note that the offense also (unsurprisingly) struggles a bit with Redick on the bench - only 6 points in 10 possessions tonight, and in the 5 games I've charted the difference is 1.18 against .78 (though that .78 is a pretty small sample size at just 23 offensive possessions). But I want to talk about Greg Paulus. Paulus has been getting a lot of flak for his turnovers, which are admittedly high. Of course, he helps offset that by leading the conference in assists. But what shocked me when I was putting together these numbers tonight was that the team has the best offensive efficiency (again, just in the 5 I've charted) when Paulus is on the floor. The team converts at a 1.20 ppp when Greg is manning the point, which is better than the team's ppp with any other player. Now, am I saying that if I had to choose one guy between Redick or Paulus to be on the court, I'd take Paulus? Of course not. But he's a big part of the reason that the offense has been running as smoothly as it has been, and the numbers prove that out. Yes, he makes freshman mistakes. But he also makes some brilliant plays - witness the running bounce pass to Nelson that was perfectly on his hands and the thread-the-needle-between-three-defenders bounce pass to Williams in the post. So take any criticism of him you read with a grain of salt, because I certainly don't think this offense would be better with someone else running the point.

As for the game, each half was itself a story of halves - Duke won the first half of each half by very large margins, but sort of hit cruise control in the latter 10 minutes and gave up easy scores to Virginia. I don't have it by the clock, but by possessions, the scores look like this: 1st 1/2 of the first half: 20-8 Duke (1.11ppp to .42)
2nd 1/2 of the first half:16-15 UVA (.94 to .83)
1st 1/2 of the second half: 29-14 Duke (1.71 to .875)
2nd 1/2 of the second half: 25-18 UVA (1.56 to 1.12)

Now, outscoring them by a combined 27 points in each first half obviously put the game out of reach, but it wasn't fun watching us play sloppy ball at the end of the first half, and it certainly wasn't fun watching a poor offensive team score almost at will in the second half (yes, a lot of their 2nd half offense was free throws, but usually you get free throws when you beat the defense and force a foul to prevent a made basket). There was a lot of good in this game (general offensive execution, JJ, early intensity, JJ, Shelden, ball movement, and, oh yeah, JJ) but there was also plenty that needs to be fixed (turnovers, sustained intensity, holding and expanding leads). We'll need to keep up the good and fix some of the bad for the game at BC this Wednesday.