In what is now its third annual incarnation - a look at the teams remaining in the Sweet 16. For what it's worth, my titling of these year's has been, well, less than successful in terms of predicting a final four. The first year was offense heavy in the Sweet 16, and none of the 7 best offensive teams in the Sweet 16 made the final 4. Last year was one of balance - and that prediction held better. UCLA was the only Final Four team not in the top 20 in both offense and defense. This year, the remaining teams are collectively stronger on the defensive side of the ball. The top 6 defensive teams in the country are all alive and well, compared to only 5 of the top 10 on the offensive side of the ball. The 5 that didn't make the Sweet 16 all had poor defenses - no one ranked higher than 56th, and Oregon's was worst at 120th. Three teams are in the top 10 in both categories, and two of those - UCLA and Memphis - have better defenses than offenses. If this trend holds, it gives cause for concern to those teams that are more heavily dependent on their offenses - UNC (#2 offense, #29 defense), Texas (#3 offense, #32 defense), and Tennessee (#11 offense, #22 defense). Here are the lists.
Offense
1) Kansas - 126.7
2) UNC - 126.5
3) Texas - 123.0
6) UCLA - 119.3
10) Memphis - 118.4
11) Tennessee - 118.3
14) Washington State - 118.0
15) Xavier - 117.9
18) Michigan State - 117.5
21) Stanford - 116.8
25) West Virginia - 116.3
27) Wisconsin - 116.0
31) Davidson - 115.1
35) Louisville - 114.7
60) Villanova - 110.4
62) Western Kentucky - 110.3
Defense
1) Wisconsin - 81.1
2) UCLA - 82.8
3) Memphis - 83.9
4) Kansas - 84.1
5) Louisville - 84.2
6) Washington State - 86.7
9) Stanford - 87.3
19) Michigan State - 89.3
22) Tennessee - 89.8
23) West Virginia - 89.9
26) Xavier - 90.6
29) UNC - 90.8
32) Texas - 91.5
36) Villanova - 92.0
40) Davidson - 92.3
68) Western Kentucky - 94.5
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Monday, March 24, 2008
West Virginia 73, Duke 67
The big question in the mind of Duke fans out there is, quite simply, what happened? Through the game at Virginia, Duke had a dynamic, multi-dimensional offense that could score in a variety of ways - really every way except consistent back-to-the-basket scoring - and that was as efficient as any in the country. Yes, there had been a couple of hiccups along the way (most notably the Pitt game), but by and large, against both good opponents and bad, the offense was a well-oiled machine. And for good reason: Duke had 7 players that could shoot the three, plus 5 that could reliably get into the lane and finish one-on-one. The offensive spacing was designed to create both driving lanes on the inside and open looks on the outside, and it largely accomplished this goal.
And then, all of a sudden, something happened. The offense went from multi-dimensional to one-dimensional, dynamic to static. Duke had just 9 games all year with an offensive rating lower than 103. Four of these occurred in the last five games - UNC, Clemson, Belmont, West Virginia. Duke had just 10 games all year with an efg below 50%. Again, four of these occurred in the last five games. Part of the drop off came from a change in the defense - Duke forced fewer turnovers, scored fewer points off of turnovers, and fewer fast break points - just over 5 per game in the above-mentioned four. But another part came from what appeared to be a loss of confidence in the offense as a whole. The flow, the movement, the willingness to pass out of drives - it just wasn't there. Duke recorded just 15 assists combined in the NCAA tournament, after recording at least that many in 16 separate games this season. And of course, part of it came from shots going cold at just the wrong time. In the four above-mentioned games, Duke shot a combined 27.6% from three - in all other games combined this year, Duke shot 39.1% (and even in all other ACC games, Duke was 37.7%).
As for why this sudden transformation occurred, I really have no idea. Generally speaking, this was as well-conditioned a team as Duke has had. Only Nelson played more than 30 min/game. I really don't believe that they were hit by fatigue (although the flu has been tossed around as a possible explanation - as to the merits of this, I'm not a team doctor). Something just happened. Coach K gets the offseason (or at least the part when he's not in Beijing) to try to figure out why and to try to prevent it from happening again.
That being said, Duke's defensive performance against West Virginia was largely stellar (with one glaring exception). I spent so much time watching Scheyer play ball-denial against Alex Ruoff because it was so much fun to watch. Try as he might, Ruoff could hardly get the ball in his hands. Scheyer did the same thing to Sean Marshall last year, and will do the same thing again to prime-time shooters over the next couple of years - he's just an excellent off-the-ball defender. West Virginia shot just as poorly as Duke did, and turned the ball over a lot. The only downside was our inability to secure a rebound. People jumped on this as a "key weakness" for Duke, as if we got dominated on the glass every game. That's simply not true - this game was probably our worst rebounding game of the season. In most games, Duke was a very competent rebounding team. True, we didn't have a single dominant rebounder, but the squad hit the boards well as a unit. Again, for whatever reason, they simply didn't get the job done on the glass against West Virginia.
Around the ACC
UNC's offense = wow. They scored over 1.5 points per possession over the weekend, and the total line is just ridiculous. 72 of 104 from 2. 15 of 32 from 3. 29 of 55 available offensive rebounds. 53 assists. 16 turnovers. Who cares if they didn't really play defense. If you score like that, it just doesn't matter.
VT's defense = wow. They held UAB to about .70 points per possession, and notably forced Robert Vaden into a 3 of 17 shooting night. They would have been such a dangerous 11 or 12 seed in the tourney - I guarantee you Michigan State is very, very happy they didn't have to play the Hokies.
Miami's comeback = so close. It was frantic and furious, and it almost panned out (with a little airball assistance from DJ Augustin - this reminded me so much of Mike Dunleavy in Dec. 2000), but the better team prevailed in the end. By the way, Texas gets to play the rest of its games in its home state - I also guarantee you Memphis isn't happy about having to take on 30,000 Longhorn fans to get to San Antonio.
Virginia = still alive, after storming back to beat ODU. Thank goodness.
And then, all of a sudden, something happened. The offense went from multi-dimensional to one-dimensional, dynamic to static. Duke had just 9 games all year with an offensive rating lower than 103. Four of these occurred in the last five games - UNC, Clemson, Belmont, West Virginia. Duke had just 10 games all year with an efg below 50%. Again, four of these occurred in the last five games. Part of the drop off came from a change in the defense - Duke forced fewer turnovers, scored fewer points off of turnovers, and fewer fast break points - just over 5 per game in the above-mentioned four. But another part came from what appeared to be a loss of confidence in the offense as a whole. The flow, the movement, the willingness to pass out of drives - it just wasn't there. Duke recorded just 15 assists combined in the NCAA tournament, after recording at least that many in 16 separate games this season. And of course, part of it came from shots going cold at just the wrong time. In the four above-mentioned games, Duke shot a combined 27.6% from three - in all other games combined this year, Duke shot 39.1% (and even in all other ACC games, Duke was 37.7%).
As for why this sudden transformation occurred, I really have no idea. Generally speaking, this was as well-conditioned a team as Duke has had. Only Nelson played more than 30 min/game. I really don't believe that they were hit by fatigue (although the flu has been tossed around as a possible explanation - as to the merits of this, I'm not a team doctor). Something just happened. Coach K gets the offseason (or at least the part when he's not in Beijing) to try to figure out why and to try to prevent it from happening again.
That being said, Duke's defensive performance against West Virginia was largely stellar (with one glaring exception). I spent so much time watching Scheyer play ball-denial against Alex Ruoff because it was so much fun to watch. Try as he might, Ruoff could hardly get the ball in his hands. Scheyer did the same thing to Sean Marshall last year, and will do the same thing again to prime-time shooters over the next couple of years - he's just an excellent off-the-ball defender. West Virginia shot just as poorly as Duke did, and turned the ball over a lot. The only downside was our inability to secure a rebound. People jumped on this as a "key weakness" for Duke, as if we got dominated on the glass every game. That's simply not true - this game was probably our worst rebounding game of the season. In most games, Duke was a very competent rebounding team. True, we didn't have a single dominant rebounder, but the squad hit the boards well as a unit. Again, for whatever reason, they simply didn't get the job done on the glass against West Virginia.
Around the ACC
UNC's offense = wow. They scored over 1.5 points per possession over the weekend, and the total line is just ridiculous. 72 of 104 from 2. 15 of 32 from 3. 29 of 55 available offensive rebounds. 53 assists. 16 turnovers. Who cares if they didn't really play defense. If you score like that, it just doesn't matter.
VT's defense = wow. They held UAB to about .70 points per possession, and notably forced Robert Vaden into a 3 of 17 shooting night. They would have been such a dangerous 11 or 12 seed in the tourney - I guarantee you Michigan State is very, very happy they didn't have to play the Hokies.
Miami's comeback = so close. It was frantic and furious, and it almost panned out (with a little airball assistance from DJ Augustin - this reminded me so much of Mike Dunleavy in Dec. 2000), but the better team prevailed in the end. By the way, Texas gets to play the rest of its games in its home state - I also guarantee you Memphis isn't happy about having to take on 30,000 Longhorn fans to get to San Antonio.
Virginia = still alive, after storming back to beat ODU. Thank goodness.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
West Virginia Preview
Let's take a closer look at the Mountaineers, this afternoon's opponent. After Thursday's win, West Virginia moved up to #19 in the Pomeroy Ratings. Their adjusted offense and defense are about equal relative to other schools - the former is 23rd in the country, the latter 24th. West Virginia played a very light non-conference schedule. They lost to their two toughest opponents (Tennessee, by only 2, and Oklahoma by 6), and their toughest foe after that was either Winthrop or New Mexico State. In conference play, they got to 11-7 largely by avoiding bad losses - their two best wins in conference play were over Marquette and Pittsburgh, both at home. The remaining nine victories were over Syracuse, St. John's (twice), Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence (twice), South Florida, and DePaul. Thus, against top competition, the Mountaineers generally lost - 2-7 against the top 50 in the regular season.
As mentioned on Wednesday, the single thing the Mountaineers do best is avoid turnovers - 6th in the nation in terms of holding on to the ball. That's helped propel a team with shooting and rebounding that are both just slightly above average to the top 10% of the offensive rankings. Each and every West Virginia player is stingy with the basketball - Nichols, Ruoff, Alexander, and Butler are all in the top 500 in the country for their low turnover rates. When it comes to putting the ball in the basket, all four mentioned above are equally capable (and almost equally responsible). Ruoff and Nichols are the outside specialists, Butler and Alexander love working inside, and Alexander gets to the line a lot (where he's an 81.3% free throw shooter). Ruoff's easily the best shooter on the team, and one of the best in the country - his 61.0% efg ranks 50th.
Aside from Jamie Smalligan, whose minutes are limited, West Virginia lacks a big body in the middle. But they do have 5 guys who run between 6'6" and 6'8", at least three of which are on the court at any given time. This is not a small team, particularly on the wings, where they will have a size advantage over Duke.
West Virginia has discarded much of Beilein ball, but it's likely that these players remember its principles. After seeing how well the spread and backcuts by Belmont worked, look for West Virginia to reach back to last year, at least some, and spread guys around the perimeter to test Duke's defense. For Duke, it would be ideal for them to adopt an attack mentality in this game, and try to get the ball going toward the basket via the drive or the pass. West Virginia is very foul prone, and although Wellington Smith and Joe Alexander are good shotblockers, they tend to pick up early fouls. The Mountaineers are not particularly adept at defending the three, so if Duke can get the perimeter guys looking to help on drivers and cutters, it could open up better opportunities from the outside. And Duke has to be careful not to give the ball away. Over the past month, Duke's turnover percentage has been a problem, and they've been committing some of the same unforced errors that plagued them last season. West Virginia is not particularly aggressive about trying to take the ball away, so Duke can't help them out by giving it up for free.
Of course, foul trouble and turnovers won't matter as much if Duke can't hit shots. Keep an eye on Duke's efg% throughout the game. If it's 50% or better, smile - Duke is 23-1 this year with an efg of 50% or more (Miami is responsible for the 1). If it's under 50%, be concerned. When Duke isn't hitting the equivalent of half their shots (remember, you only need to hit 1/3 of your threes for a 50% efg), they're just 5-4, and the wins are over Princeton, Cornell, Temple, Georgia Tech, and Belmont. Reaching 50% has been less certain in recent weeks - the team has failed to hit that mark in 5 of the last ten games, after being at least that efficient in 19 of the first 23. So Devils, go out there and hit your shots today, and let's head back to the Sweet 16 - it wasn't the same last year without you!
Around the ACC
Carolina cruised, to no one's surprise. It was their most efficient offensive performance of the year, and they excelled in all categories - 65.5% efg, 12% turnover rate, and 58.1% on the offensive glass (the Heels got 18 of their 31 misses). That earned the regulars a healthy rest - Wood, Moody, Wooten, Tanner, and Campbell played the last 5 minutes of the game, and only Hansbrough, Green, and Ellington played more than 20 minutes. Of ever so slight concern, Mt. St. Mary's scored almost a point per possession. But that number was helped by 5 minutes against the scrubs - before the walk-ons came in, UNC's D Rating was around 90 - still high for an opponent like Mt. St. Mary's, but less cause for concern.
Jack McClinton pulled the Canes on his back and carried them by St. Mary's in the second half, putting up 30 of his 38 points in the last 20 minutes. He was 12-19 from the floor, including 3-6 from 3, and hit all 11 of his free throws. As a reward, the Canes earn a second round matchup with Texas on Sunday, who rather easily disposed of Austin Peay.
And then there was Clemson. With a few minutes left in the first half, it was 36-18, and I was thinking about putting on a movie. Then Nova cut it to 12 by halftime. And then the Tigers went ice, ice cold. 7 of 28 in the second half, including just 2 of 16 from behind the arc. Conversely, 'Nova couldn't miss - 11 of 17, including all four 3-pointers, and a very impressive 22 of 27 from the line. All in all, it ended up being a 24 point turnaround in under 24 minutes, and the Tigers suddenly found themselves heading home. Another frustrating come-from-ahead loss for the 2008 Tigers to put on their mantle next to the two Tar Heel games, and a trendy final four pick bowed out in the first round.
As mentioned on Wednesday, the single thing the Mountaineers do best is avoid turnovers - 6th in the nation in terms of holding on to the ball. That's helped propel a team with shooting and rebounding that are both just slightly above average to the top 10% of the offensive rankings. Each and every West Virginia player is stingy with the basketball - Nichols, Ruoff, Alexander, and Butler are all in the top 500 in the country for their low turnover rates. When it comes to putting the ball in the basket, all four mentioned above are equally capable (and almost equally responsible). Ruoff and Nichols are the outside specialists, Butler and Alexander love working inside, and Alexander gets to the line a lot (where he's an 81.3% free throw shooter). Ruoff's easily the best shooter on the team, and one of the best in the country - his 61.0% efg ranks 50th.
Aside from Jamie Smalligan, whose minutes are limited, West Virginia lacks a big body in the middle. But they do have 5 guys who run between 6'6" and 6'8", at least three of which are on the court at any given time. This is not a small team, particularly on the wings, where they will have a size advantage over Duke.
West Virginia has discarded much of Beilein ball, but it's likely that these players remember its principles. After seeing how well the spread and backcuts by Belmont worked, look for West Virginia to reach back to last year, at least some, and spread guys around the perimeter to test Duke's defense. For Duke, it would be ideal for them to adopt an attack mentality in this game, and try to get the ball going toward the basket via the drive or the pass. West Virginia is very foul prone, and although Wellington Smith and Joe Alexander are good shotblockers, they tend to pick up early fouls. The Mountaineers are not particularly adept at defending the three, so if Duke can get the perimeter guys looking to help on drivers and cutters, it could open up better opportunities from the outside. And Duke has to be careful not to give the ball away. Over the past month, Duke's turnover percentage has been a problem, and they've been committing some of the same unforced errors that plagued them last season. West Virginia is not particularly aggressive about trying to take the ball away, so Duke can't help them out by giving it up for free.
Of course, foul trouble and turnovers won't matter as much if Duke can't hit shots. Keep an eye on Duke's efg% throughout the game. If it's 50% or better, smile - Duke is 23-1 this year with an efg of 50% or more (Miami is responsible for the 1). If it's under 50%, be concerned. When Duke isn't hitting the equivalent of half their shots (remember, you only need to hit 1/3 of your threes for a 50% efg), they're just 5-4, and the wins are over Princeton, Cornell, Temple, Georgia Tech, and Belmont. Reaching 50% has been less certain in recent weeks - the team has failed to hit that mark in 5 of the last ten games, after being at least that efficient in 19 of the first 23. So Devils, go out there and hit your shots today, and let's head back to the Sweet 16 - it wasn't the same last year without you!
Around the ACC
Carolina cruised, to no one's surprise. It was their most efficient offensive performance of the year, and they excelled in all categories - 65.5% efg, 12% turnover rate, and 58.1% on the offensive glass (the Heels got 18 of their 31 misses). That earned the regulars a healthy rest - Wood, Moody, Wooten, Tanner, and Campbell played the last 5 minutes of the game, and only Hansbrough, Green, and Ellington played more than 20 minutes. Of ever so slight concern, Mt. St. Mary's scored almost a point per possession. But that number was helped by 5 minutes against the scrubs - before the walk-ons came in, UNC's D Rating was around 90 - still high for an opponent like Mt. St. Mary's, but less cause for concern.
Jack McClinton pulled the Canes on his back and carried them by St. Mary's in the second half, putting up 30 of his 38 points in the last 20 minutes. He was 12-19 from the floor, including 3-6 from 3, and hit all 11 of his free throws. As a reward, the Canes earn a second round matchup with Texas on Sunday, who rather easily disposed of Austin Peay.
And then there was Clemson. With a few minutes left in the first half, it was 36-18, and I was thinking about putting on a movie. Then Nova cut it to 12 by halftime. And then the Tigers went ice, ice cold. 7 of 28 in the second half, including just 2 of 16 from behind the arc. Conversely, 'Nova couldn't miss - 11 of 17, including all four 3-pointers, and a very impressive 22 of 27 from the line. All in all, it ended up being a 24 point turnaround in under 24 minutes, and the Tigers suddenly found themselves heading home. Another frustrating come-from-ahead loss for the 2008 Tigers to put on their mantle next to the two Tar Heel games, and a trendy final four pick bowed out in the first round.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
The Great Escape
(Disclaimer: I haven't watched the game. I was at the first round games in Anaheim today, and for some reason my DVR decided not to tape it. I was having a heart attack constantly refreshing my blackberry for the score, and ended up completely missing about 7 minutes of BYU-Texas A&M, even though I never left my seat.)
The box score shows two teams that played almost equal games. Shooting, free throws, turnovers, even rebounds, all were very close. Which is what you expect in the NCAA tournament, and what you expect in a 1-point game. It is not, however, what you expect in a 2/15 matchup. Gerald Henderson's coast-to-coast layup and DeMarcus Nelson's steal mean that this game will be a footnote, rather than Exhibit A. An almost, a what-might-have-been. It would have been the biggest first-round upset in NCAA history, not because it was the biggest talent disparity between teams, but because of Duke's pedigree. Instead, it's another Georgetown 50, Princeton 49 - remembered, but not legend.
So how did the Devils find themselves in this situation? First, Belmont had an excellent game plan - spread the floor, take advantage of Duke's overplays, and go 1-on-1 wherever there's a mismatch. It sounds a lot like the gameplan Georgetown ran against us in their win at the MCI Center two years ago, and it's a style of offense that Duke has always been and will always be vulnerable to. Kudos to the Bruins for executing it so well, and to Coach Byrd for drawing it up. Second, Duke was 6-21 from 3. This team needs the outside to open up the inside, because it can't really do it vice versa. When the outside shots aren't falling, the offense will always be less than optimal. And third, Duke missed some opportunities. They had 13 offensive rebounds, but only 9 second chance points. They had 11 steals, but only 14 points of turnovers and 10 fast break points. Turnovers and offensive rebounds are the best chances for easy points, but the Devils couldn't get them easily tonight. Nonetheless, they did just enough (and I mean just enough) to scrape out a win. West Virginia awaits - more on that matchup tomorrow.
Around the ACC
The only other ACC team in action tonight was the Maryland Terrapins, who bowed out of the NIT in a loss at Syracuse. While it's disappointing to see the Terps leave the NIT so quickly, Syracuse was probably a better team no matter where the game was played, and certainly better in the Carrier Dome. Gist and Osby combined for 44 and 18 on excellent shooting, but the Terps couldn't get outside shots to fall and couldn't get stops at all. The ACC currently stands at 4-2 in all postseason play, with Miami, Clemson, and UNC lacing them up for the first time tomorrow.
East ACC Pod Preview
Speaking of UNC, here's the preview for their pod, which on Saturday could present the first in a series of difficult matchups for the Tar Heels on the road to San Antonio.
Indiana as an 8 seed is one of the most unusual decisions the committee has made in a while - it clearly has bought into the notion that the Hoosier players are simply not interested in playing for Dan Dakich. The Hoosiers have both the stats and the record to merit a 5 or 6 seed, not to mention the talent. Eric Gordon is a prime-time player as a freshman guard, and DJ White is as strong and talented of a low post player as UNC will have seen all year. The offense revolves around this inside-outside combo, and particularly thrives on getting both players to the line - nearly 500 attempts between the two of them. If the team that played for Kelvin Sampson shows up, they should have no trouble with Arkansas, and should give the Heels a run for their money. But if the team that lost 3 of its last 4 a) by 29 to Michigan State; b) to Penn State; and c) to Minnesota shows up, they'll be headed home hat in hand before the weekend. I'd like to think DJ White has too much pride to let that happen, but who knows. As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks have been a little bit of an afterthought in this matchup, but they're a mighty talented team themselves. Patrick Beverly and Sonny Weems are solid offensive threats, and Beverly is a tremendous rebounder for a 6'1" guard. Arkansas has three big bodies that love banging the offensive boards for second chance points - Darian Townes, Charles Thomas, and Steven Hill. And those same big bodies have made it very tough on opponents to score inside - Arkansas is 13th nationally in block rate. But the Razorback offense is less than stellar and they really shoot themselves in the foot by turning it over a ton. Still, with 4 guys 6'10" or taller, Arkansas has the height to make life miserable for DJ White and Tyler Hansbrough, if they can advance.
UNC starts off the weekend with Mt. St. Mary's, winner of the play-in game. It's a team playing for a fallen fellow athlete - a track star at the school died just before the conference championship. Unfortunately for Mt. St. Mary's, this is not a matchup they can plausibly win. UNC is one of the best two rebounding teams in the country (along with UCLA) - the Mountaineers are short, and one of the worst rebounding teams in the tourney. UNC loves putting its guys (Hansbrough especially) on the line - the Mountaineers struggle to limit opponents' free throw attempts. UNC is more vulnerable to being beat from the perimeter than from inside - the Mountaineers are not a good outside shooting team. But regardless of what happens tomorrow, they picked up an emotional win on Tuesday and have an NCAA Tournament victory in 2008, which is more than 309 other teams in college basketball can say.
The box score shows two teams that played almost equal games. Shooting, free throws, turnovers, even rebounds, all were very close. Which is what you expect in the NCAA tournament, and what you expect in a 1-point game. It is not, however, what you expect in a 2/15 matchup. Gerald Henderson's coast-to-coast layup and DeMarcus Nelson's steal mean that this game will be a footnote, rather than Exhibit A. An almost, a what-might-have-been. It would have been the biggest first-round upset in NCAA history, not because it was the biggest talent disparity between teams, but because of Duke's pedigree. Instead, it's another Georgetown 50, Princeton 49 - remembered, but not legend.
So how did the Devils find themselves in this situation? First, Belmont had an excellent game plan - spread the floor, take advantage of Duke's overplays, and go 1-on-1 wherever there's a mismatch. It sounds a lot like the gameplan Georgetown ran against us in their win at the MCI Center two years ago, and it's a style of offense that Duke has always been and will always be vulnerable to. Kudos to the Bruins for executing it so well, and to Coach Byrd for drawing it up. Second, Duke was 6-21 from 3. This team needs the outside to open up the inside, because it can't really do it vice versa. When the outside shots aren't falling, the offense will always be less than optimal. And third, Duke missed some opportunities. They had 13 offensive rebounds, but only 9 second chance points. They had 11 steals, but only 14 points of turnovers and 10 fast break points. Turnovers and offensive rebounds are the best chances for easy points, but the Devils couldn't get them easily tonight. Nonetheless, they did just enough (and I mean just enough) to scrape out a win. West Virginia awaits - more on that matchup tomorrow.
Around the ACC
The only other ACC team in action tonight was the Maryland Terrapins, who bowed out of the NIT in a loss at Syracuse. While it's disappointing to see the Terps leave the NIT so quickly, Syracuse was probably a better team no matter where the game was played, and certainly better in the Carrier Dome. Gist and Osby combined for 44 and 18 on excellent shooting, but the Terps couldn't get outside shots to fall and couldn't get stops at all. The ACC currently stands at 4-2 in all postseason play, with Miami, Clemson, and UNC lacing them up for the first time tomorrow.
East ACC Pod Preview
Speaking of UNC, here's the preview for their pod, which on Saturday could present the first in a series of difficult matchups for the Tar Heels on the road to San Antonio.
| 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | ||
| UNC | 97.76% | 70.84% | |
| Indiana | 63.79% | 20.97% | |
| Arkansas | 36.21% | 8.06% | |
| Mt. St. Marys | 2.24% | 0.13% | |
Indiana as an 8 seed is one of the most unusual decisions the committee has made in a while - it clearly has bought into the notion that the Hoosier players are simply not interested in playing for Dan Dakich. The Hoosiers have both the stats and the record to merit a 5 or 6 seed, not to mention the talent. Eric Gordon is a prime-time player as a freshman guard, and DJ White is as strong and talented of a low post player as UNC will have seen all year. The offense revolves around this inside-outside combo, and particularly thrives on getting both players to the line - nearly 500 attempts between the two of them. If the team that played for Kelvin Sampson shows up, they should have no trouble with Arkansas, and should give the Heels a run for their money. But if the team that lost 3 of its last 4 a) by 29 to Michigan State; b) to Penn State; and c) to Minnesota shows up, they'll be headed home hat in hand before the weekend. I'd like to think DJ White has too much pride to let that happen, but who knows. As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks have been a little bit of an afterthought in this matchup, but they're a mighty talented team themselves. Patrick Beverly and Sonny Weems are solid offensive threats, and Beverly is a tremendous rebounder for a 6'1" guard. Arkansas has three big bodies that love banging the offensive boards for second chance points - Darian Townes, Charles Thomas, and Steven Hill. And those same big bodies have made it very tough on opponents to score inside - Arkansas is 13th nationally in block rate. But the Razorback offense is less than stellar and they really shoot themselves in the foot by turning it over a ton. Still, with 4 guys 6'10" or taller, Arkansas has the height to make life miserable for DJ White and Tyler Hansbrough, if they can advance.
UNC starts off the weekend with Mt. St. Mary's, winner of the play-in game. It's a team playing for a fallen fellow athlete - a track star at the school died just before the conference championship. Unfortunately for Mt. St. Mary's, this is not a matchup they can plausibly win. UNC is one of the best two rebounding teams in the country (along with UCLA) - the Mountaineers are short, and one of the worst rebounding teams in the tourney. UNC loves putting its guys (Hansbrough especially) on the line - the Mountaineers struggle to limit opponents' free throw attempts. UNC is more vulnerable to being beat from the perimeter than from inside - the Mountaineers are not a good outside shooting team. But regardless of what happens tomorrow, they picked up an emotional win on Tuesday and have an NCAA Tournament victory in 2008, which is more than 309 other teams in college basketball can say.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
West ACC Pod Preview
The West region is where our own Duke Blue Devils reside. Their pod includes two high quality opponents in the 7/10 game and a 24-game winner in Belmont. But first, the odds of reaching the Sweet 16:
You'll notice that West Virginia and Arizona are essentially equal (I believe West Virgina has an ever so slight advantage that goes out somewhere past the three decimals Pomeroy puts up on his site). However, the truth of their equality depends on how much you trust Pomeroy's SOS adjustment - in raw terms, West Virginia's slightly better on offense and a whole lot better on defense. The Mountaineers are no longer the bombs-away boys of the Beilien era, although they maintain at least one of the same tendencies - they never turn the ball over. In fact, that's really the hallmark of the offense - West Virginia is a decidedly ordinary in terms of shooting, rebounding, and getting to the line. Joe Alexander primarily carries the offense, but Darris Nichols, Alex Ruoff, and Da'Sean Butler are all valuable contributors. For Arizona, its the B&B show - Bayless and Budinger are the only reliable and consistent offensive threats. Bayless is really something - I've seen him play in person, and he merits every bit of the lottery talk surrounding him. But the 'Cats supporting cast is pretty poor overall, and there's a good possibility that the team simply never bought into the Kevin O'Neill era. That's especially true on defense, where Arizona doesn't rebound well, doesn't force turnovers, and doesn't really prevent the ball from going in the basket. Arizona probably has the two best players in this game (and maybe three of the best four, if you count Jordan Hill), but they don't have the best team.
The Belmont Bruins will try to pull a Hampton-esque upset over the second-seeded Devils. About the only thing Belmont does well is shoot the ball, and their effective field goal percentage is boosted because they shoot 47.6% of their shots from beyond the arc - 7th in the nation. 5 players attempted over 100 threes, including Andy Wicke, who took 200, and Keaton Belcher, who hit triple digits in just 13 minutes/game. The Bruins are a deep team, with 10 players averaging double digit minutes. Jordan Hare, the team's only senior, is also the unequivocal leader - he takes the most shots, and is deadly at the line. On defense, though, Belmont is not very good. They're relatively easy to score on, they don't force turnovers, and they are just terrible on the glass. They're a dangerous first round opponent, because they could potentially get hot from outside and put up a big number on the scoreboard. But Duke is equally capable of putting up a big number, and will almost certainly have an easier time doing so against the Belmont defense than vice versa.
Around the ACC
Virginia Tech carried forward their quality play, handling a decent Morgan State team a 32-point defeat. The Hokies opened the second half by making their first 15 field goals, and shot 19 of 23 overall in the second frame. AD Vassallo had a terrific shooting game, and the Hokies got to go very deep into the bench and rest up their players. Next up is UAB, also at the Cassell.
| 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | ||
| Duke | 97.42% | 67.58% | |
| West Virginia | 50.00% | 16.14% | |
| Arizona | 50.00% | 16.14% | |
| Belmont | 2.58% | 0.15% | |
You'll notice that West Virginia and Arizona are essentially equal (I believe West Virgina has an ever so slight advantage that goes out somewhere past the three decimals Pomeroy puts up on his site). However, the truth of their equality depends on how much you trust Pomeroy's SOS adjustment - in raw terms, West Virginia's slightly better on offense and a whole lot better on defense. The Mountaineers are no longer the bombs-away boys of the Beilien era, although they maintain at least one of the same tendencies - they never turn the ball over. In fact, that's really the hallmark of the offense - West Virginia is a decidedly ordinary in terms of shooting, rebounding, and getting to the line. Joe Alexander primarily carries the offense, but Darris Nichols, Alex Ruoff, and Da'Sean Butler are all valuable contributors. For Arizona, its the B&B show - Bayless and Budinger are the only reliable and consistent offensive threats. Bayless is really something - I've seen him play in person, and he merits every bit of the lottery talk surrounding him. But the 'Cats supporting cast is pretty poor overall, and there's a good possibility that the team simply never bought into the Kevin O'Neill era. That's especially true on defense, where Arizona doesn't rebound well, doesn't force turnovers, and doesn't really prevent the ball from going in the basket. Arizona probably has the two best players in this game (and maybe three of the best four, if you count Jordan Hill), but they don't have the best team.
The Belmont Bruins will try to pull a Hampton-esque upset over the second-seeded Devils. About the only thing Belmont does well is shoot the ball, and their effective field goal percentage is boosted because they shoot 47.6% of their shots from beyond the arc - 7th in the nation. 5 players attempted over 100 threes, including Andy Wicke, who took 200, and Keaton Belcher, who hit triple digits in just 13 minutes/game. The Bruins are a deep team, with 10 players averaging double digit minutes. Jordan Hare, the team's only senior, is also the unequivocal leader - he takes the most shots, and is deadly at the line. On defense, though, Belmont is not very good. They're relatively easy to score on, they don't force turnovers, and they are just terrible on the glass. They're a dangerous first round opponent, because they could potentially get hot from outside and put up a big number on the scoreboard. But Duke is equally capable of putting up a big number, and will almost certainly have an easier time doing so against the Belmont defense than vice versa.
Around the ACC
Virginia Tech carried forward their quality play, handling a decent Morgan State team a 32-point defeat. The Hokies opened the second half by making their first 15 field goals, and shot 19 of 23 overall in the second frame. AD Vassallo had a terrific shooting game, and the Hokies got to go very deep into the bench and rest up their players. Next up is UAB, also at the Cassell.
South ACC Pod Preview
The conference's lone representative in the South region is 7th-seeded Miami. Despite being the higher seed, Miami is an ever-so-slight statistical underdog to St. Mary's (and both have lower than 1 in 5 odds against Texas).
Texas showed this season that the recruiting class in addition to that Durant guy last year had some seriously good players. You've all certainly heard about DJ Augustin, but just as integral to the team's success has been the development of Damion James. As a freshman, he showed the ability to be an inside presence on both ends of the court, but he gave little contribution away from the basket. This year he's taken on much more of the scoring load and showed reliable touch from outside - 44.1% from 3 on about 2 attempts per game. He and Connor Atchley are very, very tricky matchups because both can take their defender outside, as well as beat you down low. As a team, Texas has the second most efficient offense in the country largely by never turning it over and by relentlessly attacking the offensive glass (James in particular). Austin Peay also hangs on to the ball remarkably well, but unlike Texas, they're quite proficient in forcing TOs as well. The Governors lead the entire nation in steal percentage. Unfortunately, that's the only thing they do well on defense - they play the absolute worst fg% defense of any team in the tournament. On offense, Austin Peay shares the scoring load pretty well - all 5 starters score between 12-16 points per game. Todd Babington, who's hit 90 threes on the year, is the most likely to keep this interesting.
In the 7/10 matchup, a lot of people (and numbers, see above) see St. Mary's as the favorite and better team. However, they come into the NCAAs losing 3 of 5, and the offense isn't what it was earlier in the year. But the loss to Gonzaga notwithstanding, the defense is still very good. St. Mary's is one of the toughest teams in the nation to score against. Opponents can't score inside (44.2% from 2) or outside (30.3% from 3). Diamon Simpson and Omar Sahman do excellent work protecting the rim. Dwayne Collins will likely not have a career high in this one. On offense, the Gaels rely heavily on Patty Mills outside, and Simpson inside. By the way, just 2 seniors in the St. Mary's rotation - they'll be very good again next year. As for Miami, people have pointed out that they were outscored by conference opponents. Which is true. By 18 points, to be precise. Of course, as I pointed out before, Miami played the single toughest schedule in conference, traveling to almost all the difficult home venues and hosting almost all the best road warriors. Plus, Miami finished conference play on a 6-2 push (7-3 if you count the ACCT) that included two road wins and a win over Duke. Miami will be looking first and foremost (and second and next-most) to Jack McClinton to carry the offense. St. Mary's is a tough draw for the Canes, because their primary point of struggle is putting the ball in the basket - no one on the team shoots particularly well, and only a low turnover rate and an ability to get to and convert from the line made their offense even average. They scored just 49 points against Virginia Tech on Friday, and could struggle to crack 60 against St. Mary's.
Around the ACC - NIT Action
First the good - Maryland won @ Minnesota thanks to their defense. The Terps shot under 40% and turned the ball over a ton but still managed to pick up the win. Of course, the Gophers shot much, much worse - 13 of 37 from 2, and 8 for 30 from 3. Ugh. Next up for the Terps - a trip the 'Cuse.
And the bad - FSU lost in overtime to Akron. Another ugly game - it was tied at 51! going into the extra frame. Uche Echefu and Jason Rich recorded double doubles, although Echefu's (20 points, 10 rebounds) was much more helpful than Rich's (10 rebounds, 10 turnovers). In a 225 minute game (45 minutes x 5 players), FSU got a grand total of 34 minutes and 3 points from the bench. FSU lost this one because they simple couldn't hold on the ball - Akron got give-aways once out of every 3 possessions. Ugh.
CBI Action
In the new (lesser) tournament, Virginia snuck by Richmond 66-64. Singletary led the way with 18. I really don't have much to say about this. Quite frankly, I'm very disappointed to see three underwhelming performances from the ACC. If we're going to lay claim to being the best conference in the country, we can't go throwing three dogs out there on one night again.
| 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | ||
| Texas | 97.53% | 79.08% | |
| Miami | 49.75% | 10.25% | |
| St. Mary's | 50.25% | 10.43% | |
| Austin Peay | 2.47% | 0.24% | |
Texas showed this season that the recruiting class in addition to that Durant guy last year had some seriously good players. You've all certainly heard about DJ Augustin, but just as integral to the team's success has been the development of Damion James. As a freshman, he showed the ability to be an inside presence on both ends of the court, but he gave little contribution away from the basket. This year he's taken on much more of the scoring load and showed reliable touch from outside - 44.1% from 3 on about 2 attempts per game. He and Connor Atchley are very, very tricky matchups because both can take their defender outside, as well as beat you down low. As a team, Texas has the second most efficient offense in the country largely by never turning it over and by relentlessly attacking the offensive glass (James in particular). Austin Peay also hangs on to the ball remarkably well, but unlike Texas, they're quite proficient in forcing TOs as well. The Governors lead the entire nation in steal percentage. Unfortunately, that's the only thing they do well on defense - they play the absolute worst fg% defense of any team in the tournament. On offense, Austin Peay shares the scoring load pretty well - all 5 starters score between 12-16 points per game. Todd Babington, who's hit 90 threes on the year, is the most likely to keep this interesting.
In the 7/10 matchup, a lot of people (and numbers, see above) see St. Mary's as the favorite and better team. However, they come into the NCAAs losing 3 of 5, and the offense isn't what it was earlier in the year. But the loss to Gonzaga notwithstanding, the defense is still very good. St. Mary's is one of the toughest teams in the nation to score against. Opponents can't score inside (44.2% from 2) or outside (30.3% from 3). Diamon Simpson and Omar Sahman do excellent work protecting the rim. Dwayne Collins will likely not have a career high in this one. On offense, the Gaels rely heavily on Patty Mills outside, and Simpson inside. By the way, just 2 seniors in the St. Mary's rotation - they'll be very good again next year. As for Miami, people have pointed out that they were outscored by conference opponents. Which is true. By 18 points, to be precise. Of course, as I pointed out before, Miami played the single toughest schedule in conference, traveling to almost all the difficult home venues and hosting almost all the best road warriors. Plus, Miami finished conference play on a 6-2 push (7-3 if you count the ACCT) that included two road wins and a win over Duke. Miami will be looking first and foremost (and second and next-most) to Jack McClinton to carry the offense. St. Mary's is a tough draw for the Canes, because their primary point of struggle is putting the ball in the basket - no one on the team shoots particularly well, and only a low turnover rate and an ability to get to and convert from the line made their offense even average. They scored just 49 points against Virginia Tech on Friday, and could struggle to crack 60 against St. Mary's.
Around the ACC - NIT Action
First the good - Maryland won @ Minnesota thanks to their defense. The Terps shot under 40% and turned the ball over a ton but still managed to pick up the win. Of course, the Gophers shot much, much worse - 13 of 37 from 2, and 8 for 30 from 3. Ugh. Next up for the Terps - a trip the 'Cuse.
And the bad - FSU lost in overtime to Akron. Another ugly game - it was tied at 51! going into the extra frame. Uche Echefu and Jason Rich recorded double doubles, although Echefu's (20 points, 10 rebounds) was much more helpful than Rich's (10 rebounds, 10 turnovers). In a 225 minute game (45 minutes x 5 players), FSU got a grand total of 34 minutes and 3 points from the bench. FSU lost this one because they simple couldn't hold on the ball - Akron got give-aways once out of every 3 possessions. Ugh.
CBI Action
In the new (lesser) tournament, Virginia snuck by Richmond 66-64. Singletary led the way with 18. I really don't have much to say about this. Quite frankly, I'm very disappointed to see three underwhelming performances from the ACC. If we're going to lay claim to being the best conference in the country, we can't go throwing three dogs out there on one night again.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Midwest ACC Pod Preview
This year, with only four ACC teams, in the tournament, they're rather tidily divided among the four regions. First to get a look is the Midwest, where the recent finalist Clemson Tigers suit up as the 5 seed.
By the numbers, Clemson is a heavy favorite to come out of this region on top. To give you an idea of how far Clemson grades out ahead of Vanderbilt, consider the following - Clemson's winning percentage against Vanderbilt (75.2%) is just barely shy of Vanderbilt's winning percentage against Siena. So in layman's terms, the statistical gap between the Tigers and the 'Dores is as large as that between Vanderbilt and Siena.
As for the 4-13 matchup, Vanderbilt encounters, in Siena, one of the most extreme teams in college basketball. The Saints are in the top 10 nationally in 4 categories and the top 52 in 4 others, but rank below 200 in 8 separate categories. Siena is one of the hardest teams to turnover, one of the best in picking up steals, and one of the least likely to send an opponent to the line (oddly enough, opponent's also shoot just 64.5% from the line against Siena, 11th worst in the nation). However, they're a terrible rebounding team and very poor in field goal percentage defense. The Saints got lucky in one regard - Vanderbilt is also a poor rebounding team, and not likely to exploit Siena too heavily on the glass. But the 'Dores are in the top 25 in shooting percentage, and 7th nationally from beyond the arc. Moreover, Vanderbilt is reasonably stingy in terms of giving the ball away. For the Saints to win, they absolutely need to force turnovers and score in transition, and they need Edwin Ubiles to have a big game. But Shan Foster, AJ Ogilvy, and company will likely prove too talented to overcome. Shan Foster is having a ridiculous season - 67.7 efg%, coming from 61.8% from 2 and 47.5% from 3. Wow.
In the 5/12 matchup, Clemson gets a Villanova team that grades out very similarly to Vanderbilt in terms of overall efficiency, but not in style of play. While the Commodores are very lax on defense and rely heavily on the offense to carry the day, Villanova uses a generally stingy defense to carry a rather poor offense. No Wildcat shoots the ball well, particularly not Corey Fisher and Scottie Reynolds, who take the lion's share of the shots. The offense is somewhat vulnerable to the turnover, and extremely vulnerable to the blocked shot - only 14 teams in America had a higher percentage of shot attempts blocked. Clemson, of course, can exploit both of these areas well. The Tigers are 29th in the nation forcing turnovers and 30th blocking shots. If Clemson starts racking up the steals and blocks, it'll be look out below for Villanova.
The likely pod final is Clemson-Vanderbilt. Clemson is simply the better team, and their style of defense is designed to neutralize the Commodores' biggest threat - the 3-ball. Clemson, like Duke, forces teams to score inside the arc. Part of this comes from the full court press, which can result in lots of layups (or at least layup attempts) for a team that breaks it. But part of it also comes from harassing perimeter defense by Hammonds, Perry, and Rivers that is more than happy to feed guards into Booker and Gist, who block tons of shots, especially for their size. Clemson is simply a better team than Vanderbilt (and underrated on the whole - they score 13th in the pre-tournament Pomeroy Ratings), and should win this game.
Of course, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is free throw shooting. Memphis and Winthrop are the only tournament teams that shoot worse from the line than the Tigers. In a perverse way of demonstrating the law of averages, Clemson opponents are almost as good from the line as the Tigers are bad - they shoot 71.2% from the stripe, a full 7% better than Clemson and 68th best in the country. If either game comes down to a free throw shooting contest, Clemson is likely to have difficulty holding on. The key for the Tigers will be to get the ball to their best free throw shooters - Oglesby, Stitt, and Rivers - and then cross their fingers nonetheless.
| 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | ||
| Vanderbilt | 77.07% | 23.98% | |
| Clemson | 76.97% | 60.71% | |
| Villanova | 23.03% | 12.44% | |
| Siena | 22.93% | 2.87% | |
By the numbers, Clemson is a heavy favorite to come out of this region on top. To give you an idea of how far Clemson grades out ahead of Vanderbilt, consider the following - Clemson's winning percentage against Vanderbilt (75.2%) is just barely shy of Vanderbilt's winning percentage against Siena. So in layman's terms, the statistical gap between the Tigers and the 'Dores is as large as that between Vanderbilt and Siena.
As for the 4-13 matchup, Vanderbilt encounters, in Siena, one of the most extreme teams in college basketball. The Saints are in the top 10 nationally in 4 categories and the top 52 in 4 others, but rank below 200 in 8 separate categories. Siena is one of the hardest teams to turnover, one of the best in picking up steals, and one of the least likely to send an opponent to the line (oddly enough, opponent's also shoot just 64.5% from the line against Siena, 11th worst in the nation). However, they're a terrible rebounding team and very poor in field goal percentage defense. The Saints got lucky in one regard - Vanderbilt is also a poor rebounding team, and not likely to exploit Siena too heavily on the glass. But the 'Dores are in the top 25 in shooting percentage, and 7th nationally from beyond the arc. Moreover, Vanderbilt is reasonably stingy in terms of giving the ball away. For the Saints to win, they absolutely need to force turnovers and score in transition, and they need Edwin Ubiles to have a big game. But Shan Foster, AJ Ogilvy, and company will likely prove too talented to overcome. Shan Foster is having a ridiculous season - 67.7 efg%, coming from 61.8% from 2 and 47.5% from 3. Wow.
In the 5/12 matchup, Clemson gets a Villanova team that grades out very similarly to Vanderbilt in terms of overall efficiency, but not in style of play. While the Commodores are very lax on defense and rely heavily on the offense to carry the day, Villanova uses a generally stingy defense to carry a rather poor offense. No Wildcat shoots the ball well, particularly not Corey Fisher and Scottie Reynolds, who take the lion's share of the shots. The offense is somewhat vulnerable to the turnover, and extremely vulnerable to the blocked shot - only 14 teams in America had a higher percentage of shot attempts blocked. Clemson, of course, can exploit both of these areas well. The Tigers are 29th in the nation forcing turnovers and 30th blocking shots. If Clemson starts racking up the steals and blocks, it'll be look out below for Villanova.
The likely pod final is Clemson-Vanderbilt. Clemson is simply the better team, and their style of defense is designed to neutralize the Commodores' biggest threat - the 3-ball. Clemson, like Duke, forces teams to score inside the arc. Part of this comes from the full court press, which can result in lots of layups (or at least layup attempts) for a team that breaks it. But part of it also comes from harassing perimeter defense by Hammonds, Perry, and Rivers that is more than happy to feed guards into Booker and Gist, who block tons of shots, especially for their size. Clemson is simply a better team than Vanderbilt (and underrated on the whole - they score 13th in the pre-tournament Pomeroy Ratings), and should win this game.
Of course, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is free throw shooting. Memphis and Winthrop are the only tournament teams that shoot worse from the line than the Tigers. In a perverse way of demonstrating the law of averages, Clemson opponents are almost as good from the line as the Tigers are bad - they shoot 71.2% from the stripe, a full 7% better than Clemson and 68th best in the country. If either game comes down to a free throw shooting contest, Clemson is likely to have difficulty holding on. The key for the Tigers will be to get the ball to their best free throw shooters - Oglesby, Stitt, and Rivers - and then cross their fingers nonetheless.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
ACC Wrap-Up
Another great escape for UNC. Another disappointment for the Tigers. This time, however, the two didn't happen in the same game. Carolina barely snuck by Virginia Tech on what was, to be perfectly honest, a player-of-the-year type play by Tyler Hansbrough (followed by an America's Funniest Home Videos type dance/run in celebration). Side note to Jeff Allen - on the last offensive play of the game, you maybe, just maybe, want to think about boxing out the best rebounder in the ACC. Just a thought.
As for the Hokies, at least Seth Greenberg can look forward to next year. It took half a season to get his freshmen up to speed and to figure out his rotation. That half a season cost them their bid. But they played as good as anyone in the country after mid-February. They lost two games - at Clemson, and essentially at UNC - by 3 points and 4.4 seconds. They played the absolute best defense against the Tar Heels as any team all season. If the season were a week longer, or the Hokies had come together a week or so earlier (or freaking Georgia hadn't run over the SEC), they might have been sitting there as a deadly matchup for a 5 seed (you think Drake would want to play the Hokies right now?). But it was not to be. Still, with everyone except D-ron back next season, the Hokies are in prime position for another tourney run in 2008-09.
In the championship game, Carolina won it in about 7 minutes of play. From the 15 minute mark to the 8 minute mark of the second half, the Heels turned a 1-point lead into 13, scoring 22 points in 13 possessions, during which Clemson recorded precisely zero defensive rebounds (UNC had 10 scoring possessions and 3 turnovers, and picked offensive boards on all 4 of their missed shots). Although Clemson made a valiant run to get back in it, the 13 point deficit was just too much to overcome. KC Rivers played one heck of a game, and Booker was fierce down low on defense, but it wasn't enough for the Tigers.
Now it's on to the tournament. Only 4 teams in the ACC got in, and while we can all bitch and moan about the top RPI conference getting the fewest teams of any major conference (tied with the Big 10), the only team that really had possible cause for complaint was Virginia Tech, and when you lose games to Penn State and Richmond, you can't complain too loudly. Early returns on the brackets are that UNC got a rough road (Tennessee, Louisville, Indiana, even Notre Dame), Clemson has a chance to make some noise, Miami got a reasonably good matchup with St. Mary's, and Duke has a decent shot of matching up with UCLA in the Elite 8. Check back in during the week for more in depth pod previews, and a look at those teams continuing their post-season play in non-NCAA environments.
As for the Hokies, at least Seth Greenberg can look forward to next year. It took half a season to get his freshmen up to speed and to figure out his rotation. That half a season cost them their bid. But they played as good as anyone in the country after mid-February. They lost two games - at Clemson, and essentially at UNC - by 3 points and 4.4 seconds. They played the absolute best defense against the Tar Heels as any team all season. If the season were a week longer, or the Hokies had come together a week or so earlier (or freaking Georgia hadn't run over the SEC), they might have been sitting there as a deadly matchup for a 5 seed (you think Drake would want to play the Hokies right now?). But it was not to be. Still, with everyone except D-ron back next season, the Hokies are in prime position for another tourney run in 2008-09.
In the championship game, Carolina won it in about 7 minutes of play. From the 15 minute mark to the 8 minute mark of the second half, the Heels turned a 1-point lead into 13, scoring 22 points in 13 possessions, during which Clemson recorded precisely zero defensive rebounds (UNC had 10 scoring possessions and 3 turnovers, and picked offensive boards on all 4 of their missed shots). Although Clemson made a valiant run to get back in it, the 13 point deficit was just too much to overcome. KC Rivers played one heck of a game, and Booker was fierce down low on defense, but it wasn't enough for the Tigers.
Now it's on to the tournament. Only 4 teams in the ACC got in, and while we can all bitch and moan about the top RPI conference getting the fewest teams of any major conference (tied with the Big 10), the only team that really had possible cause for complaint was Virginia Tech, and when you lose games to Penn State and Richmond, you can't complain too loudly. Early returns on the brackets are that UNC got a rough road (Tennessee, Louisville, Indiana, even Notre Dame), Clemson has a chance to make some noise, Miami got a reasonably good matchup with St. Mary's, and Duke has a decent shot of matching up with UCLA in the Elite 8. Check back in during the week for more in depth pod previews, and a look at those teams continuing their post-season play in non-NCAA environments.
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