Saturday, November 10, 2007

Duke 121, NCCU 56

Duke's first "real" opponent of the season was, functionally, another exhibition game. Actually, just last year, it was an exhibition game. This is NCCU's first year up with the D-I big boys, and it looks like it will be a long one (think Savannah St.). Last night was probably the best performance for Duke of the exhibition level games. They shot lights out, finally dialing it in from 3. They continued to rebound extremely well - nearly 60% on offense and 75% on defense. And they forced turnovers on 1/3 of NCCU's possessions. Here's the HD Box for Duke from last night's game (click on the link for an explanation):


O. Poss D. Poss +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA Ast TO STL BLK ORB DRB
Henderson 41 39 +45 15/65 3-8 2-2 3-4 10/37 2/16 0/41 2/39 2/26 0/17 5/18
Thomas 41 38 +40 9/68 2-3 0-0 5-5 3/37 1/19 0/41 4/38 0/28 1/16 1/16
King 39 40 +38 20/66 2-2 5-7 1-2 9/33 3/16 3/39 0/40 2/31 3/13 3/23
Smith 42 41 +33 16/66 3-5 2-3 4-5 8/35 4/17 2/42 0/41 0/35 0/16 0/25
Scheyer 51 52 +32 13/72 1-4 3-4 2-2 8/41 6/20 0/51 2/52 1/41 0/20 4/28
Singler 45 45 +30 15/61 5-6 0-1 5-5 7/38 2/13 3/45 1/45 3/31 5/20 3/18
Nelson 42 42 +29 10/56 3-6 1-5 1-1 11/36 0/14 4/42 0/42 0/29 2/18 6/17
Paulus 36 36 +29 5/49 0-0 1-3 2-2 3/32 4/14 1/36 1/36 0/23 0/17 1/14
Zoubek 37 39 +22 6/47 2-4 0-0 2-3 4/30 3/14 3/37 0/39 1/30 4/17 5/23
Pocius 24 25 +16 10/37 1-2 2-3 2-2 5/20 2/8 2/24 0/25 0/20 2/10 2/14
Davidson 7 8 +11 2/18 1-1 0-0 0-1 1/6 0/6 0/7 0/8 0/6 0/1 0/4
Duke 81 81 +65 121 23-41 16-28 27-32 69 27/39 18/81 10/81 9/60 19/33 30/40





0.561 0.571 0.844
69.23 22.22 12.35 15.00 57.58 75.00

For both Henderson and Thomas (and Davidson), the team was a full point per possession better than NCCU while they were on the court. One thing to notice - the possession spread among the players was largely equal - 8 of the top 10 guys played between 36 and 45 possessions a piece, with Scheyer getting a few more and Pocius getting fewer. Once again, the Devils controlled the middle against a smaller opponent - the post players all shot well (11-15 from 2) and the team was dominant on the glass and blocked a lot of shots (9 of just 42 2 point attempts).

One noticeable thing about the substitution pattern from last night's game is that Coach K wanted to get his 1st and 2nd lineups a lot of time together. The starters - Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Singler, and Thomas - played 26 of the 81 possessions together, essentially 1/3 of the game. Last season, Duke never had a game where one lineup got 1/3 of the floor time together. The "second" team - Smith, Scheyer, Pocius, King, and Zoubek - played 20 possessions together, or about 25%. So over half the game, Duke had one of two set lineups on the floor. Notably, both lineups exceeded the performance of rest of the combinations. The starters' e-margin on the game was a ridiculous 117, and the second team put up a margin of 70. All other lineups put up a collective margin of 57.1 over 35 possessions.

It seems like K is more committed this year to establishing some set lineups and getting players comfortable with one another. Paulus and Smith still have not shared floor time, Scheyer has played a lot more with Smith than with Paulus (vice versa for Nelson), and the post rotations seem to be primarily Singler & Thomas together, and Zoubek & King together. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the course of the year.

One final thing of note - Duke's highest possession game last year was 78 (the exhibition against NCCU). Its highest regular season possession game was 75 (twice - Georgia Southern and UNC). So far this year in two exhibition games and a glorified one against NCCU, Duke's average pace is 86.17! A lot of this is inflated by low-level opponents turning the ball over a lot, but Duke has definitely ratcheted up the pace this year. The average will certainly come down, but look for this team to try to play games in the 70-75 possession range, rather than the 64-68 range from last season.

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