Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Duke 93, Wake 70

So, I'm at a little bit of a disadvantage for this recap because, for some reason (they decided Virginians preferred to watch Maryland-Clemson), the game wasn't on in Charlottesville, so I didn't get to see a single minute of game play. By the numbers, the defense played better, particularly in the second half. We held Wake under 1.00 ppp, the first time our defense has accomplished that since the Virginia game. And, unsurprisingly, the offense was extremely efficient - over 1.35 ppp, helped out by Redick posting 1.58 number on his own. Looking at the box score made me very happy, and not just because we won big - the game played out exactly as the statistics up to this point predicted it would (and thus, as I predicted it would yesterday). Wake killed us on the glass, but couldn't play a lick of defense, and turned the ball over too much. The game was fast paced and high scoring. About the only thing that didn't go as expected was our 3 point shooting - 6 of 18 is below our season average, and below the average that Wake gives up. I say this not to pat myself on the back (though it does feel good), but just to point out that these numbers do have real predictive value, and not just in saying who will win or lose, but in showing how the game will be won and lost. Results like last night's game help validate the recent efforts that amateur (and not-so-amateur) statisticians have put in to breaking the game down to try to reach a more in depth understanding of what happens on the court, and what that says about what will happen on the court in the future.

No comments: