Thursday, November 29, 2007

Wisconsin HD Box

Here's the box for the game (note to DBR readers: Jumbo and I have a different +/- for this game, and I can't figure out why. I've gone through the play-by-play twice, and still get the discrepancy).


O. Poss D. Poss +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA Ast TO STL BLK ORB DRB
Scheyer 48 50 +24 10/60 2-5 0-2 6-6 7/40 2/16 1/48 0/50 0/44 3/24 6/33
Nelson 63 62 +21 9/73 3-9 0-2 3-4 11/56 7/21 2/63 3/62 2/55 1/33 6/36
Singler 56 58 +19 13/68 2-3 3-4 2-4 7/51 1/20 3/56 1/58 0/48 3/28 3/30
King 37 40 +15 15/49 0-1 5-9 0-1 10/31 0/10 0/37 2/40 1/36 0/18 5/27
Paulus 50 49 +15 18/53 2-6 4-7 1-1 13/44 1/9 1/50 2/49 0/41 1/31 1/27
Smith 27 29 +11 6/34 3-4 0-0 0-0 4/20 1/10 3/27 1/29 0/28 0/7 0/21
Henderson 42 40 +9 11/39 3-8 0-0 5-6 8/32 1/8 1/42 0/40 1/34 2/22 4/23
Zoubek 14 14 +6 0/12 0-0 0-0 0-0 0/6 1/2 1/14 0/14 1/15 0/5 0/13
Thomas 28 25 +3 0/25 0-1 0-0 0-0 1/24 0/9 2/28 1/25 0/22 1/15 0/13
McClure 1 2 +0 0/0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0/1 0/0 0/1 0/2 0/2 0/1 0/2
Davidson 1 2 +0 0/0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0/1 0/0 0/1 0/2 0/2 0/1 0/2
Duke 73 74 +24 82 15-37 11-24 19-23 61 14/26 14/73 10/74 5/65 12/37 28/45





0.405 0.458 0.826
53.85 19.18 13.51 7.69 32.43 62.22

Brief Catchup

Another year of the ACC/Big Televen challenge, another win for the ACC (by the way, thumbs up to last night's Maryland fans for chanting "ACC, ACC" at Illinois as the game was being put away). I wonder if the Big 10 is ever going to get tired of losing and back out of the challenge (or if the ACC would look elsewhere, like the SEC, to play). Several ACC teams - Duke, Virginia, BC, FSU - looked impressive, and it shows that even in a "down" year, there aren't going to be any games off this year in conference play (well, maybe Virginia Tech).

I'll put up the HD Box from the Wisconsin game tonight, as well as update the Duke stats, lineup stats, and reintroduce the ACC leaderboards. Sorry it wasn't up earlier, but I've been busy with my actual job (believe me, I wish that blogging about college basketball was my actual job, but no such luck). Stats and wrap-ups may be a little slower coming this season than in years past, but I'll do my best to stay current.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Previewing the ACC/Big-10 Challenge

First off, great work (in a manner of speaking) by Wake Forest taking the game at Iowa. It was an absolutely atrocious game. The teams combined for 3-30 from beyond the arc, and turned the ball over more than 1 out of every 4 possessions. The winning offensive efficiency was 79.60 - I have a hunch this will be the lowest ORating from a winning ACC team all season. Nonetheless, the end result is ACC 1, Big 10 0. Picking off this game on the road gives the ACC a healthy leg up in the challenge. Here's my take on the ten games coming up in the next two days.

Tuesday

Georgia Tech @ Indiana: On paper, this is one of the biggest mismatches in the challenge. The Jackets have been struggling in the early season, and Indiana (minus a hiccough at Xavier this weekend) has looked darn impressive. Eric Gordon seems to be the real thing, and DJ White is playing much more motivated basketball this year. Look for both to take advantage of Tech weaknesses (post and point play) and lead IU to the win. ACC 1, Big 10 1. (I could be wrong if: Morrow just goes off. He could pop for 30-40 if he's hot, because there's no one else on Georgia Tech to take shots).

Northwestern @ Virginia: another big mismatch. Northwestern has been awful in the early going, and Virginia (minus a hiccough against Seton Hall this weekend) has looked darn impressive (better than most people thought). Adrian Joseph has played particularly inspired ball this season, shooting almost 50% from 3 and pulling in almost 9 boards a game (heck, he's even been to the line 9 times!). This has all the potential of a "pick your final margin" kind of game. ACC 2, Big 10 1. (I could be wrong if: Virginia struggles, as it is prone to, against a system offense/defense, and loses a low scoring 48-47 kind of game).

Minnesota @ Florida State: Minnesota has looked a lot better under Tubby Smith, and FSU, while rocky, looked very good in taking care of the defending champs. Isaiah Swann and Jason Rich have led the perimeter charge for the 'Noles. I'm giving the edge to the home team in this one, but probably by a small margin. ACC 3, Big 10 1. (I could be wrong if: FSU doesn't box out - their defensive rebounding has not been stellar so far, and giving up lots of second chance points could come back to haunt them in a close game).

Purdue @ Clemson: Purdue is better than people think, particularly after losing someone as freakishly effective as Carl Landry. Ordinarily, I'd say this is just the kind of team that could pull off a road upset here. But I really like Clemson this season, I think they're ticked off about the way last season ended (no NCAAs), and I think they're just a solid all-around team. Hammonds and Stitt have been good handling the ball, Rivers and Mays are doing the work on offense, and Trevor Booker is still an undersized stud in the post. Clemson will run, press, turn the Boilers over, and score enough to win a tight game. ACC 4, Big 10 1. (I could be wrong if: my gut feeling about Purdue being just the kind of team to grab a road upset proves to be right).

Wisconsin @ Duke: Wisconsin currently sits at #1 in the Pomeroy ratings (sign #1 that it's still very early in the season) on the back of the best defensive performance in the country thus far this year. Good defense by the Badgers is no surprise, but how they've done it is - turning the opponent over. Wisconsin normally sits back and plays position D, but this year they've been actively taking the ball away from the other team. In 2007, they had just an 8.8 steal% - this year it's up to 13.6. Now, this all could be a product of poor early season opponents (Savannah St., IUPFW, Florida A&M), or it could be a slight change in philosophy, but their ability to sustain this defensive effort will likely be critical in this game. Duke has been extremely efficient on the offensive end so far this year, in large part due to an improved ability to hold on to the ball. If the Devils win the turnover battle, they'll likely win the game. ACC 5, Big 10 1. (I could be wrong if: Wisconsin hammers Duke on the offensive glass, Butch and Stiemmsma suddenly develop a post offense, and Duke turns the ball over too much).

Wednesday

NC State @ Michigan State: MSU is looking to lay claim to being the best team in the Big 10. They fought tough against UCLA in the CBE Finals, and their core of Neitzel, Walton, Morgan, Suton, and Gray is very good. NC State was an "it" team coming into this season after last year's ACC run and the arrival of JJ Hickson. However, the early season returns have been mixed - they won a very tough game against Villanova, but dropped a home contest to New Orleans. They don't quite seem ready enough yet to take on a talented, experienced team on the road at the Breslin Center. ACC 5, Big 10 2. (I could be wrong if: Hickson pulls another 12-12, Costner finally gets back on track, and the size of Grant and Fells bothers Neitzel).

Boston College @ Michigan: This is essentially a pick 'em game. Both teams, well, stink. BC is still finding its legs after losing Dudley and Marshall, and Michigan is still adjusting to the changes made be John Beilein. I would ordinarily pick the home team here, but the Crisler isn't exactly a rocking home venue, and Michigan has been just that bad so far this season. I'll take BC in a mild upset. ACC 6, Big 10 2. (I could be wrong if: let's face, this is going to be a close game between two bad teams that either one could win. I wouldn't put money on either one).

Illinois @ Maryland: Maryland has struggled in a lot of ways this season - they turn the ball over way too much, they can't hit a perimeter shot to save their lives, and they get hammered on the offensive glass. That third one will be very problematic against the Illini. If there's one thing Illinois does well, it's get on the offensive glass. The Illini also tend to play good defense. This is just not a good matchup for Maryland, and even the home court advantage won't do enough. Illinois takes this on the road. ACC 6, Big 10 3. (I could be wrong if: the Terps are even average in the three areas of struggle I mentioned above, and Illinois proves too young to play well on the road).

UNC @ Ohio State: UNC has beaten the poor teams on its schedule by a whole lot, and looked like a #1 team in the process. Against the only tough competition it's faced (Davidson and BYU), it's been a different story, and UNC has needed some clutch late game play to pull it out. OSU falls somewhere in between. The team is very young, and got absolutely waxed by Texas A&M, not to mention the whoops against Findley in the exhibition season. UNC should win this game going away. ACC 7, Big 10 3. (I could be wrong if: Lawson doesn't play, Frasor and Thomas are TO machines, and Jamar Butler goes off).

Virginia Tech @ Penn State: This is a lot like the BC-Michigan game. Both teams are bad, and this is not exactly a marquee closing game for the challenge. Another pick 'em, but this time I'll take the home team. ACC 7, Big 10 4. (I could be wrong if: see note from BC-Michigan).

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Duke 78, Eastern Kentucky 43

A very comfortable win for the Devils today spurred on by a tenacious defense and a whole lot of Taylor King. Duke forced 31 EKU turnovers in 70 possessions, and for most of the game turned the Colonials over essentially every other time down the court. EKU played a series of hybrid zones on defense, and Duke elected to simply shoot over it - 26 threes against 21 twos. Thankfully, the three point shooting was seriously on, with Taylor King leading the charge. He hit 6 of 11 from downtown on his way to 27 points, which is a Duke record for points scored off the bench. Both King and Scheyer (who was 2-3 himself) are at 50% or better from downtown on the season. Here's the HD Box from today's game:


O. Poss D. Poss +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA Ast TO STL BLK ORB DRB
King 42 38 +38 27/55 3-3 6-11 3-4 14/30 2/7 0/42 3/38 0/20 0/17 3/14
Scheyer 50 50 +32 9/61 0-0 2-3 3-3 3/33 3/17 2/50 1/50 0/31 0/20 1/19
Henderson 34 34 +25 10/39 3-5 1-3 1-2 8/22 4/10 5/34 0/34 0/17 1/9 2/12
Thomas 34 32 +21 7/40 2-2 0-0 3-6 2/22 1/10 3/34 0/32 0/20 2/14 3/12
Paulus 32 32 +19 3/37 0-1 1-1 0-0 2/22 2/11 3/32 2/32 0/20 0/12 1/13
Nelson 51 50 +19 12/53 4-5 1-4 1-2 9/35 0/13 1/51 2/50 1/27 1/19 3/14
Singler 32 35 +16 7/33 2-3 0-1 3-4 4/22 1/11 1/32 0/35 2/18 1/9 4/11
Smith 33 33 +9 1/34 0-0 0-2 1-2 2/21 2/12 1/33 2/33 0/20 0/12 0/10
Pocius 6 6 +4 0/7 0-1 0-1 0-0 2/6 1/2 0/6 0/6 0/2 2/5 0/1
McClure 12 13 +3 0/15 0-0 0-0 0-2 0/8 1/6 0/12 0/13 0/9 1/5 1/4
Davidson 4 5 -3 0/3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0/2 0/1 0/4 0/5 0/6 0/4 0/3
Zoubek 20 22 -8 2/13 1-1 0-0 0-1 1/12 0/4 4/20 1/22 0/15 0/9 0/7
Duke 70 70 +35 78 15-21 11-26 15-26 47 17/26 20/70 11/70 3/41 10/27 19/24





0.714 0.423 0.577
65.38 28.57 15.71 7.32 37.04 79.17

Duke shot lights out from the floor (.670 efg%), making up for the fact that they coughed the ball up nearly 30% of the time. This was by far the worst turnover performance on the year, and hopefully it'll end up being a blip, not a pattern.

Not surprisingly, King led the way in +/-. Zoubek pulled up the rear, which also wasn't too surprising since he coughed up the ball 4 times in just 20 possessions with him out there. On the lineup front, there wasn't a whole lot of useful data for this game, since K was constantly changing lineups. Only two saw the court more than one time, and also only two saw more than 5 total possessions of court time. McClure and Pocius integrated themselves back onto the court tonight, but Marty got hurt with a rolled ankle and will likely miss Tuesday's game.

Shot Selection

At the end of last season, I took a look at Duke's shot distribution, and their success with each "type" of shot. The shots we have are 3pointer, dunk, layup, tip-in, and 2-point jumper. I noted that FG% on 2-point jumpers is usually bad (worse even than on 3pt shots), and thus teams should look to maximize dunks, layups, tip-ins, and 3s. Here's how Duke players (and the team as a whole) are dividing up their shots, and how they're doing on those shots (current through Michigan):


FGM FGA
2M 2A
3M 3A
DM DA
LM LA
TM TA
Henderson 46 99 46.5 39 82 47.6 7 17 41.2 9 11 81.8 9 24 37.5

#DIV/0!
Nelson 39 84 46.4 31 62 50.0 8 22 36.4 8 10 80.0 15 27 55.6

#DIV/0!
Singler 41 72 56.9 31 46 67.4 10 26 38.5 3 3 100.0 22 29 75.9 2 2 100.0
King 34 68 50.0 11 19 57.9 23 49 46.9 1 1 100.0 6 6 100.0 1 1 100.0
Scheyer 29 60 48.3 15 32 46.9 14 28 50.0

#DIV/0! 4 10 40.0 1 1 100.0
Paulus 27 58 46.6 9 19 47.4 18 39 46.2

#DIV/0! 6 7 85.7

#DIV/0!
Smith 19 39 48.7 15 26 57.7 4 13 30.8 2 2 100.0 11 20 55.0

#DIV/0!
Thomas 16 28 57.1 16 28 57.1

#DIV/0! 5 5 100.0 9 14 64.3
1 0.0
Zoubek 15 24 62.5 15 24 62.5

#DIV/0!
1 0.0 11 14 78.6 2 2 100.0
Pocius 5 13 38.5 3 5 60.0 2 8 25.0 1 1 100.0 1 2 50.0
1 0.0
Davidson 1 2 50.0 1 1 100.0
1 0.0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!
McClure 1 1 100.0 1 1 100.0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0! 1 1 100.0

#DIV/0!

273 548 49.8 187 345 54.2 86 203 42.4 29 34 85.3 95 154 61.7 6 8 75.0




















DLM DLA
DLTM DLTA
O2M O2A
NDM NDA
JM JA



Henderson 18 35 51.4 18 35 51.4 21 47 44.7 37 88 42.0 28 64 43.8


Nelson 23 37 62.2 23 37 62.2 8 25 32.0 31 74 41.9 16 47 34.0


Singler 25 32 78.1 27 34 79.4 4 12 33.3 38 69 55.1 14 38 36.8


King 7 7 100.0 8 8 100.0 3 11 27.3 33 67 49.3 26 60 43.3


Scheyer 4 10 40.0 5 11 45.5 10 21 47.6 29 60 48.3 24 49 49.0


Paulus 6 7 85.7 6 7 85.7 3 12 25.0 27 58 46.6 21 51 41.2


Smith 13 22 59.1 13 22 59.1 2 4 50.0 17 37 45.9 6 17 35.3


Thomas 14 19 73.7 14 20 70.0 2 8 25.0 11 23 47.8 2 8 25.0


Zoubek 11 15 73.3 13 17 76.5 2 7 28.6 15 23 65.2 2 7 28.6


Pocius 2 3 66.7 2 4 50.0 1 1 100.0 4 12 33.3 3 9 33.3


Davidson 0 0 #DIV/0! 0 0 #DIV/0! 1 1 100.0 1 2 50.0 1 2 50.0


McClure 1 1 100.0 1 1 100.0 0 0 #DIV/0! 1 1 100.0 0 0 #DIV/0!



124 188 66.0 130 196 66.3 57 149 38.3 244 514 47.5 143 352 40.6




Here's a glossary for the categories:
FG - all field goals
2 - all 2-point field goals
3 - 3-point field goals
D - dunks
L - layups
T - tip-ins
DL - dunks and layups
DLT - dunks, layups, and tip-ins
O2 - all 2 point field goals that aren't dunks, layups, or tip-ins (broadly referred to as 2-point jumpers)
ND - all non-dunks
J - all jumpers (O2+3)

So far, Duke's distribution is 37.0% 3s, 35.8% DLT, and 27.2% other twos.