We're finally here - the start of a 5-week long personal holiday (though I don't actually get to stop working) that carries spring forth out of winter. It captivates the hearts and minds of people all across the country, who get the chance to believe in their team again, root for the underdog, and just watch a lot of good basketball. Over the next week and a half, the real March Madness takes place - over 300 teams in 31 conferences are playing for a shot at the big dance, and for all but about 20 teams, it's win or go home. I highly, highly encourage people to watch mid-major and minor conference championship games - the energy is always high, the games are usually close, and the basketball is good quality; last year one of the top 5 games I watched all year was the Mid-Con championship that Oakland won in a dramatic upset, my roommates and I were captivated and actually started cheering when Oakland hit the game winning basket. So with that in mind, a little conference tourney preview time. Here's the skinny on the three tourneys starting today:
Big South - This season was supposed to be all about Winthrop. To a certain extent, it was - they went 13-3 and grabbed the top seed, which is huge because the Big South plays entirely at conference sites, so they get home court all the way. But the one team in the conference that beat them at home this year also happens to be the hottest team right now, riding a ten-game win streak into the two seed. The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have had a terrific renaissance this year under the guide of Buzz Peterson and the hot shooting hand of Jack Leasure. If anyone can knock off the Eagles, it'll be them - should be a heck of a championship game. Also, if Birmingham Southern wins their first round game, and Coastal wins 2, the Big South will have 3 20-win teams, which is terrific for the conference.
Horizon - UW-Milwaukee looked like they would run away with the Horizon before hitting a couple bumps at the end of the year, but they still held on to the top seed. This tournament is designed to protect the top seeds - UWM and #2 Butler get two round byes, and #3 UW-GB gets a free pass to the quarters. During conference play, there was a lot of parity (the 3-7 seeds all finished with a .500 conference record), and the same should hold true in the tournament - close games and upsets. By the numbers, Butler has the slightest of edges (they're 5 places ahead of UWM in the Pythagorean winning percentage, which predicts a team's winning percentage against an average schedule, based on their offensive and defensive numbers), and their style could cause trouble - they're the 5th slowest team in the country, but the execute extremely well in the slow-down, with a 113.0 ORtg. If they're going to win, they'll have to do it on UWM's home court.
Ohio Valley - The other Valley takes only 8 of the 11 teams in the conference tourney, and 7 of them had winning records in conference, so this should be a pretty tight affair. Murray State (featuring UVA transfer Keith Jenifer in his senior year) looks to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, but the 4-5 (Jacksonville St v. Eastern Kentucky) and 3-6 (Tennessee Tech v. Austin Peay) games tonight should be great. To Southeast Missouri St, Eastern Illinois, and Morehead State, better luck next year.
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Monday, February 27, 2006
Couple nice matchups for a Monday
First, stats updated - see over on the right.
Second, there are two matchups tonight featuring teams with a combined total of 40 wins. The first you probably knew - Pitt travels to West Virginia for round 2 of the cross-border rivalry. Remember a few weeks ago when everyone was making a huge deal about West Virginia and their first-place spot in the Big East? Well, they ran into the tough part of their schedule and have gone 2-4 since (including "bad" losses at Seton Hall and Syracuse - side note: you never want to be the marquee win for 2 different bubble teams), and are once again a bit of an afterthought on the national scene. They're a team that lives and dies by the three, and during their little 6-game slide, they're only hitting 29.1%, though they're still shooting 28 a game. A revenge win over Pitt would do much to right the ship, but they'll need to have the outside shot falling to make it happen.
So what's the second matchup featuring 40 combined wins? If you said Montana against Northern Arizona, congratulations, you either follow hoops like I do or cheated by looking at the schedule page for tonight. This showdown doesn't mean anything in the Big Sky standings - Northern Arizona has 1st place wrapped up, and Montana holds the tiebreaker over Eastern Washington for second, so both teams have wrapped up a bye to the semi's of the conference tourney. But you better believe the Grizzlies want a statement win heading into the post-season. The first matchup at Northern Arizona was a great game - NAU came back from 13 down at the half, spurred by Kelly Golob and Steve Sir combining for 42 points on 13 for 19 shooting (including 8 for 12 from outside). Both teams executed extremely well on the offensive end, with each hitting in the 80s in a game with possessions in the high 60s, and each hitting over 50% from behind the arc. Neither team has a shot at an at large, but definitely look for the one who doesn't win the Big Sky tourney to make some noise in the NIT.
Finally - I know I keep saying things like "I should be back on a regular posting schedule" and then failing to post, but this time, actually, I should be back on a regular posting schedule. Part of the problem has been an inability to watch games - didn't see FSU, G. Tech, Temple, Wake, and won't see FSU this week. But now that I actually have a little free time during the day, at least I can make pithy, stat filled comments to the joy of all.
Second, there are two matchups tonight featuring teams with a combined total of 40 wins. The first you probably knew - Pitt travels to West Virginia for round 2 of the cross-border rivalry. Remember a few weeks ago when everyone was making a huge deal about West Virginia and their first-place spot in the Big East? Well, they ran into the tough part of their schedule and have gone 2-4 since (including "bad" losses at Seton Hall and Syracuse - side note: you never want to be the marquee win for 2 different bubble teams), and are once again a bit of an afterthought on the national scene. They're a team that lives and dies by the three, and during their little 6-game slide, they're only hitting 29.1%, though they're still shooting 28 a game. A revenge win over Pitt would do much to right the ship, but they'll need to have the outside shot falling to make it happen.
So what's the second matchup featuring 40 combined wins? If you said Montana against Northern Arizona, congratulations, you either follow hoops like I do or cheated by looking at the schedule page for tonight. This showdown doesn't mean anything in the Big Sky standings - Northern Arizona has 1st place wrapped up, and Montana holds the tiebreaker over Eastern Washington for second, so both teams have wrapped up a bye to the semi's of the conference tourney. But you better believe the Grizzlies want a statement win heading into the post-season. The first matchup at Northern Arizona was a great game - NAU came back from 13 down at the half, spurred by Kelly Golob and Steve Sir combining for 42 points on 13 for 19 shooting (including 8 for 12 from outside). Both teams executed extremely well on the offensive end, with each hitting in the 80s in a game with possessions in the high 60s, and each hitting over 50% from behind the arc. Neither team has a shot at an at large, but definitely look for the one who doesn't win the Big Sky tourney to make some noise in the NIT.
Finally - I know I keep saying things like "I should be back on a regular posting schedule" and then failing to post, but this time, actually, I should be back on a regular posting schedule. Part of the problem has been an inability to watch games - didn't see FSU, G. Tech, Temple, Wake, and won't see FSU this week. But now that I actually have a little free time during the day, at least I can make pithy, stat filled comments to the joy of all.
Monday, February 20, 2006
Thoughts on the ACC Bubble
Conventional wisdom has it (and I think has it generally right) that the ACC is split into 3 groups of 4 with respect to the NCAA tourney - 4 in (Duke, BC, NC State, UNC), 4 out (G.Tech, V.Tech, Clemson, Wake) and 4 on the bubble (Maryland, Miami, Florida State, Virginia). Let's take a look at the tourney chances of each one:
Florida State - without question, on the court, this is the best team of the 4 on the bubble. They're at the top of the group in efficiency margin, and are a very good shooting team - in the top 4 in the conference in eFG%, 2pt%, 3pt%, and PPWS. They have some big shortcomings on offense - they don't share the ball well, turn it over too much, and don't rebound well - but on the whole the plusses are better than the minuses. Their schedule closing out the season is favorable - V.Tech and Miami on the road, Maryland and Duke at home. The two road games are against weaker teams, and FSU has done alright on the road, at least until the NC State blowout: 2-4, with three of the four losses by 6 points or fewer. Their two home losses were also very close games - a 1 point defeat at the hands of the Heels, and an overtime loss to Miami. If they can get three of the last four and a win in the conference tourney, they'll have 20 wins and fewer than 10 losses with a 9-7 mark in conference. That should get them in, even though they had a weak non-conference schedule and don't have a marquee win. Of course, I happen to be of the opinion that the one regular season game Duke is most likely to lose is at FSU, and that would certainly be a marquee win very close to selection time that could give the Noles a big boost. If they do get left out, they'll be a big threat in the NIT
Maryland - sports the best RPI (courtesy Pomeroy) of the group at 45, but has been struggling without McCray - just 2-5 in their last seven, including two home losses and losses to Clemson and Temple. The remainder of the schedule does them no favors - at FSU, at UNC, home against Miami, and at UVA. None of those are even close to guaranteed wins, and the Terps need two (if one of them is at UNC) or three wins in those four games to have a chance. Maryland had some solid wins early in the season, but I think the committee will largely disregard those, and focus on the performance of the McCray-less Terps, since that's who would be in the tourney. When it comes down to it, those Terps just don't have enough to warrant getting in.
Miami - It's going to be difficult, but not impossible, for the Canes to make it. They had a decent non-conference schedule, but scored no wins against their tougher opponents. Home losses to NC State and UNC as part of their current four game skid really hurt their chance to pick up a second marquee win to go along with their victory in the Dean Dome. Still, at 6-7, and with a favorable remaining schedule (vs V. Tech, at Maryland, vs. FSU), 9-7 is not out of the question. Even so, that would leave their overall record at 17-12 going into the ACC tourney, and their RPI likely hovering in the 50s. Miami might need two wins in the tourney even if they win out to get consideration.
Virginia - Raise your hand if you thought back in December that we could even be having this discussion about the Cavs. Coach Leitao has pulled a lot out of this group, especially considering they are 9th in offensive efficiency, 6th in defensive efficiency, and 9th in margin (behind even Virginia Tech). They're the worst shooting team in conference, and are 10th in PPWS only because they have succeeded at getting to the free throw line. Still, they have a chance to pick up some big wins (Boston College at home, Carolina on the road) and have two other actually winnable games (at Clemson, vs. Maryland). Still, the poor performance of the team in the non-conference season and their correspondingly bad RPI (72, worse than Clemson's) means that there's zero margin for error here - the Cavs absolutely have to win out.
Best case scenario (ignoring the fact that I really don't want Duke to lose): FSU wins its next three, gets the marquee win over Duke at home, but loses to Miami. Miami wins out, and Virginia wins out (Maryland, of course, loses 3 of its games, but we'll toss in a win at UNC just because it's fun to think about the Heels losing). Virginia would be at 10-6, the two Florida schools at 9-7 (ideally with UNC). NC State would be 11-5, and BC also 10-6. Virginia would actually be the three seed in that scenario since it would hold the head to head tiebreaker with BC. I'm not 100% sure how Miami, FSU, and UNC would be split up among the 5, 6, and 7 seeds, but let's just say they fall in that order. Each bubble team would then need to win at least one game in the tourney (feasible in this scenario). That just might make it possible for 7 teams to get in. Now, the odds of this happening are infinitesimal - there's just no way Virginia can win out - but it just shows that, as we sit today, there's still a shot for three more teams to get in from the ACC. Of course, the most likely scenario is that only FSU gets in and the conference gets 5 bids - not a terrible showing, but certainly a far cry from what was hoped for at the start of the season.
Florida State - without question, on the court, this is the best team of the 4 on the bubble. They're at the top of the group in efficiency margin, and are a very good shooting team - in the top 4 in the conference in eFG%, 2pt%, 3pt%, and PPWS. They have some big shortcomings on offense - they don't share the ball well, turn it over too much, and don't rebound well - but on the whole the plusses are better than the minuses. Their schedule closing out the season is favorable - V.Tech and Miami on the road, Maryland and Duke at home. The two road games are against weaker teams, and FSU has done alright on the road, at least until the NC State blowout: 2-4, with three of the four losses by 6 points or fewer. Their two home losses were also very close games - a 1 point defeat at the hands of the Heels, and an overtime loss to Miami. If they can get three of the last four and a win in the conference tourney, they'll have 20 wins and fewer than 10 losses with a 9-7 mark in conference. That should get them in, even though they had a weak non-conference schedule and don't have a marquee win. Of course, I happen to be of the opinion that the one regular season game Duke is most likely to lose is at FSU, and that would certainly be a marquee win very close to selection time that could give the Noles a big boost. If they do get left out, they'll be a big threat in the NIT
Maryland - sports the best RPI (courtesy Pomeroy) of the group at 45, but has been struggling without McCray - just 2-5 in their last seven, including two home losses and losses to Clemson and Temple. The remainder of the schedule does them no favors - at FSU, at UNC, home against Miami, and at UVA. None of those are even close to guaranteed wins, and the Terps need two (if one of them is at UNC) or three wins in those four games to have a chance. Maryland had some solid wins early in the season, but I think the committee will largely disregard those, and focus on the performance of the McCray-less Terps, since that's who would be in the tourney. When it comes down to it, those Terps just don't have enough to warrant getting in.
Miami - It's going to be difficult, but not impossible, for the Canes to make it. They had a decent non-conference schedule, but scored no wins against their tougher opponents. Home losses to NC State and UNC as part of their current four game skid really hurt their chance to pick up a second marquee win to go along with their victory in the Dean Dome. Still, at 6-7, and with a favorable remaining schedule (vs V. Tech, at Maryland, vs. FSU), 9-7 is not out of the question. Even so, that would leave their overall record at 17-12 going into the ACC tourney, and their RPI likely hovering in the 50s. Miami might need two wins in the tourney even if they win out to get consideration.
Virginia - Raise your hand if you thought back in December that we could even be having this discussion about the Cavs. Coach Leitao has pulled a lot out of this group, especially considering they are 9th in offensive efficiency, 6th in defensive efficiency, and 9th in margin (behind even Virginia Tech). They're the worst shooting team in conference, and are 10th in PPWS only because they have succeeded at getting to the free throw line. Still, they have a chance to pick up some big wins (Boston College at home, Carolina on the road) and have two other actually winnable games (at Clemson, vs. Maryland). Still, the poor performance of the team in the non-conference season and their correspondingly bad RPI (72, worse than Clemson's) means that there's zero margin for error here - the Cavs absolutely have to win out.
Best case scenario (ignoring the fact that I really don't want Duke to lose): FSU wins its next three, gets the marquee win over Duke at home, but loses to Miami. Miami wins out, and Virginia wins out (Maryland, of course, loses 3 of its games, but we'll toss in a win at UNC just because it's fun to think about the Heels losing). Virginia would be at 10-6, the two Florida schools at 9-7 (ideally with UNC). NC State would be 11-5, and BC also 10-6. Virginia would actually be the three seed in that scenario since it would hold the head to head tiebreaker with BC. I'm not 100% sure how Miami, FSU, and UNC would be split up among the 5, 6, and 7 seeds, but let's just say they fall in that order. Each bubble team would then need to win at least one game in the tourney (feasible in this scenario). That just might make it possible for 7 teams to get in. Now, the odds of this happening are infinitesimal - there's just no way Virginia can win out - but it just shows that, as we sit today, there's still a shot for three more teams to get in from the ACC. Of course, the most likely scenario is that only FSU gets in and the conference gets 5 bids - not a terrible showing, but certainly a far cry from what was hoped for at the start of the season.
Duke 92, Miami 71 cont.
This was, obviously, a very good offensive night for Duke. The offense was very efficient, especially when they didn't turn the ball over, posting a 1.38 PPWS. Both Redick and McRoberts were north of 1.70 PPWS on their own - Redick because he shot so well from 3 (6 of 9) and McRoberts because he was successful in getting to and converting from the free throw line (9 of 11). I think my personal favorite part of this one (aside from Redick setting the scoring record) was the contribution of DeMarcus Nelson. His shot is vastly improved from last year, and he doesn't hesitate to take it when he has an open look (something Dockery still has a bit of a problem with). He played a really valuable role for us on offense when both Paulus and Dock got in a little bit of foul trouble at various points during the game. When his quickness comes back to full speed, he should really be dangerous. I hope he was taking notes from the Miami guards on shooting runners and floaters from 6 to 10 feet, rather than driving directly into the post players - if DeMarcus has any of that game in him, look out. With the exception of a couple spurts early in both halves, the defense played better, too. Duke will always be vulnerable to a team with a good mid-range game like Miami, and the fact that they were held below 1 PPP is a good sign.
Conference tempo free stats have been updated over in the links to the right (as the writer of the CAA blog says, on the George Bush side of the page). Enjoy.
Conference tempo free stats have been updated over in the links to the right (as the writer of the CAA blog says, on the George Bush side of the page). Enjoy.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Miami Game Efficiency
Here's the table for tonight's game:
Strong performances from Redick, McRoberts, and Williams all reflected above. Also, the offense tended to run better with Nelson on the court than with Paulus (in the first half) and Dock (in the second half) - I like that his confidence is back 100%, even if his strength, and quickness aren't there yet. He's not shy about taking a shot when he has an open look, and tonight he was pretty darn good at knocking them down. The table also reflects the less than stellar performances of Paulus (2 assists, 5 TOs, 1-6 from the floor) and Melchionni (team scored almost 1 1/2 points a possession with him on the bench. More to come on the game as a whole a little later....
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 50.5 | 1.19 | 49.5 | .95 |
| Paulus-off | 22.5 | 1.42 | 24.5 | .98 |
| Redick-on | 70 | 1.27 | 70 | .96 |
| Redick-off | 3 | 1.00 | 4 | 1.00 |
| Dockery-on | 52.5 | 1.24 | 54 | .94 |
| Dockery-off | 20.5 | 1.32 | 20 | 1.00 |
| McRoberts-on | 55 | 1.35 | 56.5 | .83 |
| McRoberts-off | 18 | 1.00 | 17.5 | 1.37 |
| Williams-on | 66.5 | 1.31 | 66.5 | 1.02 |
| Williams-off | 6.5 | .77 | 7.5 | .40 |
| Melchionni-on | 21.5 | .79 | 23 | 1.13 |
| Melchionni-off | 51.5 | 1.46 | 51 | .88 |
| Nelson-on | 43 | 1.30 | 42.5 | 1.04 |
| Nelson-off | 30 | 1.20 | 31.5 | .86 |
| Pocius-on | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | .00 |
| Pocius-off | 72 | 1.24 | 73 | .97 |
| Boykin-on | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | .00 |
| Boykin-off | 72 | 1.24 | 73 | .97 |
| Boateng-on | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | .00 |
| Boateng-off | 72 | 1.24 | 73 | .97 |
| Davidson-on | 1 | 3.00 | 1.5 | .67 |
| Davidson-off | 72 | 1.24 | 72.5 | .97 |
| Johnson-on | 2 | .00 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Johnson-off | 71 | 1.30 | 72 | .93 |
| Team Totals | 73 | 1.26 | 74 | .959 |
Strong performances from Redick, McRoberts, and Williams all reflected above. Also, the offense tended to run better with Nelson on the court than with Paulus (in the first half) and Dock (in the second half) - I like that his confidence is back 100%, even if his strength, and quickness aren't there yet. He's not shy about taking a shot when he has an open look, and tonight he was pretty darn good at knocking them down. The table also reflects the less than stellar performances of Paulus (2 assists, 5 TOs, 1-6 from the floor) and Melchionni (team scored almost 1 1/2 points a possession with him on the bench. More to come on the game as a whole a little later....
Friday, February 17, 2006
Bracket Buster Teaser
I'm completely torn on the bracket buster. I love the fact that it focuses the attention of the college basketball world on some very talented teams that often fly below the radar (including the four in action tonight). I don't like the fact that this year, it's absolutley enormous - way too big to be meaningful for many of the teams involved. Also, I don't like the fact generally that gimmicks like this are necessary (possibly indispensable) for some very good teams to get a tournament bid. In fact, the brakcet buster almost seems like a play-in game for many of the teams involved - at-large chances for several teams may very well hinge on the outcomes of their games this weekend. But I suppose that's just the way the NCAA works... on to tonight's two games:
Akron at Nevada - The Pack are mid-major darlings from last year, and after some early season conference hiccoughs, has taken control of the WAC. The Zips have been a big surprise in the MAC this year, and have shown that the St. Vincent-St. Marys high school teams weren't all Lebron, all the time - Romeo Travis and Dru Joyce, two of LBJ's old teammates, have been having fantastic seasons. Travis and Nick Fazekas of Nevada will be one heck of a matchup - easily one of the best one-on-one's in the bracket buster. Nevada has the homecourt and big game experience, and better overall talent. Still, this one should be close and competitive the whole way through.
Albany at VCU - The Great Danes profited from some off-season departures in the AEC - the graduations of Taylor Coppenrath and TJ Sorrentine from Vermont, and the Northeastern Huskies switching to the Colonial Athletic Association. The team that made one of the biggest turnarounds in the country a season ago became the preseason favorites in the conference, and so far have lived up to that billing (only the Binghamton Bearcats seem to stand in their way). The big reason why is Jamar Wilson - 2nd in the conference in scoring, 4th in assists, 6th in steals, 15th in rebounding (he's 6'1" by the way), and 4th in PPWS. VCU has been one of the teams floating around the top of the CAA all year, but really had any chance at an at large vanish with a loss to Towson this week. Nick George and Jesse Pellot-Rosa have been having great seasons, and both create serious matchup problems for the Danes. A lot of people will point to this game as an example of why the bracket buster is too big this year - neither Albany nor VCU has a shot at an at large, so it's essentially a glorified exhibition game. Nonetheless, it should be a close game, with the Rams pulling away at the end.
Akron at Nevada - The Pack are mid-major darlings from last year, and after some early season conference hiccoughs, has taken control of the WAC. The Zips have been a big surprise in the MAC this year, and have shown that the St. Vincent-St. Marys high school teams weren't all Lebron, all the time - Romeo Travis and Dru Joyce, two of LBJ's old teammates, have been having fantastic seasons. Travis and Nick Fazekas of Nevada will be one heck of a matchup - easily one of the best one-on-one's in the bracket buster. Nevada has the homecourt and big game experience, and better overall talent. Still, this one should be close and competitive the whole way through.
Albany at VCU - The Great Danes profited from some off-season departures in the AEC - the graduations of Taylor Coppenrath and TJ Sorrentine from Vermont, and the Northeastern Huskies switching to the Colonial Athletic Association. The team that made one of the biggest turnarounds in the country a season ago became the preseason favorites in the conference, and so far have lived up to that billing (only the Binghamton Bearcats seem to stand in their way). The big reason why is Jamar Wilson - 2nd in the conference in scoring, 4th in assists, 6th in steals, 15th in rebounding (he's 6'1" by the way), and 4th in PPWS. VCU has been one of the teams floating around the top of the CAA all year, but really had any chance at an at large vanish with a loss to Towson this week. Nick George and Jesse Pellot-Rosa have been having great seasons, and both create serious matchup problems for the Danes. A lot of people will point to this game as an example of why the bracket buster is too big this year - neither Albany nor VCU has a shot at an at large, so it's essentially a glorified exhibition game. Nonetheless, it should be a close game, with the Rams pulling away at the end.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Duke 93, Wake 70
So, I'm at a little bit of a disadvantage for this recap because, for some reason (they decided Virginians preferred to watch Maryland-Clemson), the game wasn't on in Charlottesville, so I didn't get to see a single minute of game play. By the numbers, the defense played better, particularly in the second half. We held Wake under 1.00 ppp, the first time our defense has accomplished that since the Virginia game. And, unsurprisingly, the offense was extremely efficient - over 1.35 ppp, helped out by Redick posting 1.58 number on his own. Looking at the box score made me very happy, and not just because we won big - the game played out exactly as the statistics up to this point predicted it would (and thus, as I predicted it would yesterday). Wake killed us on the glass, but couldn't play a lick of defense, and turned the ball over too much. The game was fast paced and high scoring. About the only thing that didn't go as expected was our 3 point shooting - 6 of 18 is below our season average, and below the average that Wake gives up. I say this not to pat myself on the back (though it does feel good), but just to point out that these numbers do have real predictive value, and not just in saying who will win or lose, but in showing how the game will be won and lost. Results like last night's game help validate the recent efforts that amateur (and not-so-amateur) statisticians have put in to breaking the game down to try to reach a more in depth understanding of what happens on the court, and what that says about what will happen on the court in the future.
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Duke-Wake Preview
This has the potential to be a very high scoring game. Of late, Duke has decided that they don't really want to play defense - over the last four games, the Devils have posted a ghastly 106.78 DRating. How ghastly is that, you ask? If they played defense like that all season, it would rank 11th in the conference. The offense hasn't played poorly over those games (109.80, just a schoch below the average on the conference season), but failure to get defensive stops has meant all those games have been close. Duke's defense overall on the conference season still ranks 2nd in conference, but the efficiency margin has been cut by 1/3 (from 18+ to 12+), not a good sign heading toward the post-season (last year the Final 4 was made up of the the top 4 major conference teams in conference efficiency margin, and the numbers were all 18 and above). Wake's offense hasn't really been its problem this year - they post a decent 104.52 ORtg, good for 6th in the conference. The problem is that they decided early in the season not to play D - a blowout loss to Duke early in the conference season set the tone, and Wake has been atrocious at getting stops all year - they rank last in efficiency margin, D Rating, opponents eFG%, 3pt% defense, and PPWS. When you consider that they also don't force turnovers (9th at 17.6%), that adds up to a whole lot of scoring. The one positive Wake has going for it tonight is rebounding - Wake has done pretty well on both the offensive and defensive glass (better at the former), and Duke's struggles in these areas are well documented. In the first game, Wake picked up 43.3% of its own misses, and 69.6% of Duke's misses, which helped them stay in the game as long as they did. Still, that one advantage shouldn't be enough to keep this one close. The point(guard)less Deacons will have a real tough time holding on to the ball against the Duke pressure in Cameron, and there's no reason to think they'll suddenly play hard-nosed, in your face defense. This should be a pretty comfortable win, in the 15 to 20 point range.
Monday, February 13, 2006
What to Watch For - 2/13/06
First and foremost, stats are updated through yesterday's games - hit the ol' link bar to the right and have at it. As for tonight's slate, there's really only two games that warrant mentioning, and both will be shown on the world-wide leader. Here's the skinny:
1) U-cons at Villanova : This is probably the single biggest (not counting Duke-UNC, which as we all now is in a permanent league of its own) conference game in the country this year. The Huskies take their number 1 ranking into Philly to take on the Wildcats, a chic Final Four pick at the beginning of the year that has lived up to expectations in a big way. At stake is sole possession of first place in the Biiiig East (at least for a couple days). This matchup is really a case of contrasting styles - the 'Cats are led by a foursome of fearsome guards, all of whom can score, distribute, and (importantly) rebound - Lowry, Ray, and Foye all average more than the 4.1 rebounds a game pulled in by big man Jason Fraser. Nova's offense has been very efficient all year, hovering right around 1.10 ppp, both in conference and non-conference play. While the 'Cats will look to play slash and shoot from the perimeter, UConn will try to feed the beast that is their frontcourt. When Boone, Gay, and Armstrong are all on the court, the size advantage for UConn is enormous - all are at least as tall as the 'Cats only frontcourt players, and Nova plays a lot of minutes with the aforementioned four guards. Connecticut is also much deeper than Villanova - 11 players average 9 minutes a game (though the number is partially skewed by the absence of Williams for the first half of the season - Nelson, Austrie, and Johnson have all gotten a lot less playing time in conference play). UConn absolutely kills teams on the boards - Boone, Armstrong, and seventh-man Jeff Adrien all average better than 10 per 40 minutes, and Rudy Gay is just shy at about 9.5. Matchup problems are the story of the game - when Nova goes to the 4 guard, will Uconn's bigs be able to keep up on the perimeter? Will a Wildcat zone that goes 6'4", 6'9", 6'2" along the back-line be able to keep the Husky bigs from scoring at will? Will Rashard Anderson and Denham Brown have a field day when the defense collapses on the post? Can Marcus Williams withstand the heavy ball pressure Nova puts on? Needless to say, this should be a spectacular game - one of the best in college hoops this year.
2) Louisiana Tech at Nevada - For those of you who can't sleep (or who live west of the Mississippi), game three in ESPN's tripleheader is likely to be just as close and just as exciting as Huskies-Cats. The Bulldogs and the Pack sit tied atop the conference with identical 8-3 marks. This game is a rematch of a Nevada win in Reston just 11 short days ago. Paul Millsap, rebounder extraordinaire, put up a solid line (16 and 11, 3 blocks, better than 50% shooting) but got absolutely zero help from his teammates - non-Paul Millsap Bulldogs shot 15 of 48, committed 13 turnovers, and had just 8 assists on the way to putting out a 78.7 offensive rating for the night. Nevada wasn't stellar on offense - just 37% from the field and a 95.6 ORating - but it was more than enough. Nick the Freak Fazekas put up a customarily solid night with 23 and 10, and he had a little help from Marcellus Kemp, who tossed in 16 of his own. The final piece of the puzzle from the first game was freethrows - Tech committed 19 fouls to Nevada's 11, leading to 21 FTAs for the Pack against just 5 for the Bulldogs (WAC ref conspiracy against the relative newcomers, I say!). If Tech is going to win the rematch, the supporting cast needs to do a lot more to help out Millsap, and the defense needs to be just a little better. They're not a great offensive team on the season (just 97.2 offensive rating), but their defense has been stellar at 93.5. Everything favors the Pack tonight (home team, better numbers, etc.), and it's probably too tall a task for the Bulldogs to pull off the road upset here.
1) U-cons at Villanova : This is probably the single biggest (not counting Duke-UNC, which as we all now is in a permanent league of its own) conference game in the country this year. The Huskies take their number 1 ranking into Philly to take on the Wildcats, a chic Final Four pick at the beginning of the year that has lived up to expectations in a big way. At stake is sole possession of first place in the Biiiig East (at least for a couple days). This matchup is really a case of contrasting styles - the 'Cats are led by a foursome of fearsome guards, all of whom can score, distribute, and (importantly) rebound - Lowry, Ray, and Foye all average more than the 4.1 rebounds a game pulled in by big man Jason Fraser. Nova's offense has been very efficient all year, hovering right around 1.10 ppp, both in conference and non-conference play. While the 'Cats will look to play slash and shoot from the perimeter, UConn will try to feed the beast that is their frontcourt. When Boone, Gay, and Armstrong are all on the court, the size advantage for UConn is enormous - all are at least as tall as the 'Cats only frontcourt players, and Nova plays a lot of minutes with the aforementioned four guards. Connecticut is also much deeper than Villanova - 11 players average 9 minutes a game (though the number is partially skewed by the absence of Williams for the first half of the season - Nelson, Austrie, and Johnson have all gotten a lot less playing time in conference play). UConn absolutely kills teams on the boards - Boone, Armstrong, and seventh-man Jeff Adrien all average better than 10 per 40 minutes, and Rudy Gay is just shy at about 9.5. Matchup problems are the story of the game - when Nova goes to the 4 guard, will Uconn's bigs be able to keep up on the perimeter? Will a Wildcat zone that goes 6'4", 6'9", 6'2" along the back-line be able to keep the Husky bigs from scoring at will? Will Rashard Anderson and Denham Brown have a field day when the defense collapses on the post? Can Marcus Williams withstand the heavy ball pressure Nova puts on? Needless to say, this should be a spectacular game - one of the best in college hoops this year.
2) Louisiana Tech at Nevada - For those of you who can't sleep (or who live west of the Mississippi), game three in ESPN's tripleheader is likely to be just as close and just as exciting as Huskies-Cats. The Bulldogs and the Pack sit tied atop the conference with identical 8-3 marks. This game is a rematch of a Nevada win in Reston just 11 short days ago. Paul Millsap, rebounder extraordinaire, put up a solid line (16 and 11, 3 blocks, better than 50% shooting) but got absolutely zero help from his teammates - non-Paul Millsap Bulldogs shot 15 of 48, committed 13 turnovers, and had just 8 assists on the way to putting out a 78.7 offensive rating for the night. Nevada wasn't stellar on offense - just 37% from the field and a 95.6 ORating - but it was more than enough. Nick the Freak Fazekas put up a customarily solid night with 23 and 10, and he had a little help from Marcellus Kemp, who tossed in 16 of his own. The final piece of the puzzle from the first game was freethrows - Tech committed 19 fouls to Nevada's 11, leading to 21 FTAs for the Pack against just 5 for the Bulldogs (WAC ref conspiracy against the relative newcomers, I say!). If Tech is going to win the rematch, the supporting cast needs to do a lot more to help out Millsap, and the defense needs to be just a little better. They're not a great offensive team on the season (just 97.2 offensive rating), but their defense has been stellar at 93.5. Everything favors the Pack tonight (home team, better numbers, etc.), and it's probably too tall a task for the Bulldogs to pull off the road upset here.
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Duke 96, Maryland 88
I'm back! (I'm sure you're all thrilled). Here's the table for the Maryland game:
The biggest illustration out of this is something that should surprise absolutely no one - we really need either Williams or McRoberts on the court at all times. When one of them was on the court, we outscored Maryland 90-75. With both on the bench with a little foul trouble at the end of the first half, Maryland won 13-6. It'll be interesting to see how Coach K might choose to handle things if a similar situation arises in the tournament (a la UCONN 2004) - will he give Johnson minutes at the end of the first half and risk the other team going on a run, or will he leave one of the big guys out there and risk picking up a third foul? On that note, I was really surprised to see Johnson come in instead of Boateng. I like Johnson - he seems like a good guy, I played pickup against him when he was a freshman before he walked on (still happy he didn't dunk on me), but I can't possibly think that he was option #1 in that scenario. Though Boateng is a little raw, he has shown that he can be somewhat capable out there, and I would have thought that he'd be the emergency center if we got into foul trouble. If anyone knows something that I'm missing and cares to fill me in on it, send a little knowledge my way.
Tempo-free stats will be updated tomorrow, and I should be back to a somewhat regular posting schedule (at least for a while).
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 77.5 | 1.19 | 75 | 1.09 |
| Paulus-off | 3.5 | 1.14 | 5 | 1.20 |
| Redick-on | 79 | 1.20 | 78 | 1.08 |
| Redick-off | 2 | .50 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Dockery-on | 53 | 1.17 | 54 | 1.00 |
| Dockery-off | 28 | 1.21 | 26 | 1.31 |
| McRoberts-on | 52 | 1.21 | 51.5 | 1.11 |
| McRoberts-off | 29 | 1.14 | 28.5 | 1.09 |
| Williams-on | 67.5 | 1.27 | 57.5 | 1.05 |
| Williams-off | 13.5 | .74 | 12.5 | 1.36 |
| Melchionni-on | 29.5 | 1.12 | 29 | 1.07 |
| Melchionni-off | 51.5 | 1.22 | 51 | 1.12 |
| Nelson-on | 36.5 | 1.18 | 34 | 1.18 |
| Nelson-off | 44.5 | 1.19 | 46 | 1.04 |
| Pocius-on | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Pocius-off | 81 | 1.19 | 79 | 1.09 |
| Boykin-on | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Boykin-off | 81 | 1.19 | 79 | 1.09 |
| Johnson-on | 10 | .60 | 9 | 1.44 |
| Johnson-off | 71 | 1.27 | 71 | 1.06 |
| Team Totals | 81 | 1.185 | 80 | 1.10 |
The biggest illustration out of this is something that should surprise absolutely no one - we really need either Williams or McRoberts on the court at all times. When one of them was on the court, we outscored Maryland 90-75. With both on the bench with a little foul trouble at the end of the first half, Maryland won 13-6. It'll be interesting to see how Coach K might choose to handle things if a similar situation arises in the tournament (a la UCONN 2004) - will he give Johnson minutes at the end of the first half and risk the other team going on a run, or will he leave one of the big guys out there and risk picking up a third foul? On that note, I was really surprised to see Johnson come in instead of Boateng. I like Johnson - he seems like a good guy, I played pickup against him when he was a freshman before he walked on (still happy he didn't dunk on me), but I can't possibly think that he was option #1 in that scenario. Though Boateng is a little raw, he has shown that he can be somewhat capable out there, and I would have thought that he'd be the emergency center if we got into foul trouble. If anyone knows something that I'm missing and cares to fill me in on it, send a little knowledge my way.
Tempo-free stats will be updated tomorrow, and I should be back to a somewhat regular posting schedule (at least for a while).
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