Kind of an interesting slate tonight - only 11 games being played in the country, but 5 involved ranked teams. With that in mind, several previews:
1) Pitt at UCONN - honestly, I think Pitt is overrated, but I sure hope they pick up the road win tonight. Heart says yet, brain says no. UCONN is more efficient on offense, more efficient on defense, and just better with Williams on the court.
2) Illinois at Wisconsin - UW was cock of the walk in the big ten for a while, but then got deflated with the shocking loss to ND State, and a road loss at Crisler more recently. These are now two of the four 5-2 teams at the top of the Big Televen standings. As bad as they've looked lately, I'll stick with Wisconsin at home (where they've been very tough) over Illinois on the road (where they've been, um, not so tough).
3) Florida at Mississippi - Mississippi is floating around on the bubble talk (partially because no one can believe that only three or four SEC teams might make the tournament) and a win over a top-10 opponent would do a lot to boost their cause. Florida has shown struggles on the road this year, dropping to both Tennessee (understandable) and South Carolina (not so much). Still, they have so much more talent than the Rebels that they should reverse the road woes, and send Ole Miss back to thinking NIT.
4) ACC previews - wow, it's a rough conference slate when Miami is by far the best of the 4 teams playing tonight. Miami and Wake are actually pretty similar in most respects - they're good rebounding teams, middle of the pack shooters, don't defend the arc well, etc. But Miami is better on both sides of the ball handling game - they turn the ball over less, and force more turnovers. Expect that result to continue on the home court tonight. Honestly, I'm officially giving up on Wake. Who knew at the beginning of the year this year that Cameron Stanley and Kevin Swinton (two heavily hyped recruits) would be completely non-existent? Who knew that Michael Drum would be expected to play meaningful minutes in ACC games? Chris Paul made up for a whole lot of defensive shortcomings, and without him, the team will continually be coming up short. The other game on the docket tonight is the battle of the Techs in Blacksburg. I'll say this - Georgia Tech just hasn't played hard this year, and Virginia Tech has. This is a totally subjective comment (and thus one I'm not usually given to making) but when talent is lacking, you have to win on effort, and GT hasn't shown it. For those of you who want numbers, here you go - VT forces turnovers (tops in the conference at just shy of 1 every 4 possessions) and Georgia Tech coughs it up (slightly more than 1 every four possessions). Much like Wake-Miami, this should be the key difference between the teams tonight - it'll let VT get several points in transition and make up for a half court offense that is truly bad (97.06 ORtg, even with all the free looks they get off turnovers).
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Monday, January 30, 2006
What to Watch For - 1/30/06
First and foremost, the tempo free stats are updated. Use the links over on the sidebar and stat yourself silly.
I'm not going to lie, tonight's action is, well, mismatched is a diplomatic way to put it. A whole lot of top of conference opponents are going against a whole lot of bottom of conference opponents. There is one "heavyweight" match though, down in the OVC, as the two conference leaders square off in Murray, Kentucky. Samford handed Murray State its first conference loss of the season in the first meeting between the two at Samford. In a pace the Mid-Majority describes as excruciating, Samford executed exceptionally well on offense, getting 61 points in just 48.4 possessions (and proving the value of tempo free stats - the casual observer would see a 61-50 final score and think, defensive slugfest. Not so! Samford had a 126.1 ORtg, a .682 eFG%, and 1.32 PPWS. But I digress). This has been the MO of the Bulldogs from Birmingham all year - they play the 5th slowest pace in the country, at 57.2 poss/game, but execute extremely well in those possessions, with a 110.2 ORtg that's good for 1st in the conference and 38th in the country. Murray State, by contrast, has been getting it done with defense, sporting a conference leading 98.4 DRtg. Should be a dogfight up in Kentucky tonight. So if you happen to live in an area where this game is being broadcast, watch it. Otherwise, I suggest passing on ESPN's slate (a blowout in the making in Nova-Louisville, and an uninspiring Texas Tech-Kansas matchup), and maybe watch some 24.
I'm not going to lie, tonight's action is, well, mismatched is a diplomatic way to put it. A whole lot of top of conference opponents are going against a whole lot of bottom of conference opponents. There is one "heavyweight" match though, down in the OVC, as the two conference leaders square off in Murray, Kentucky. Samford handed Murray State its first conference loss of the season in the first meeting between the two at Samford. In a pace the Mid-Majority describes as excruciating, Samford executed exceptionally well on offense, getting 61 points in just 48.4 possessions (and proving the value of tempo free stats - the casual observer would see a 61-50 final score and think, defensive slugfest. Not so! Samford had a 126.1 ORtg, a .682 eFG%, and 1.32 PPWS. But I digress). This has been the MO of the Bulldogs from Birmingham all year - they play the 5th slowest pace in the country, at 57.2 poss/game, but execute extremely well in those possessions, with a 110.2 ORtg that's good for 1st in the conference and 38th in the country. Murray State, by contrast, has been getting it done with defense, sporting a conference leading 98.4 DRtg. Should be a dogfight up in Kentucky tonight. So if you happen to live in an area where this game is being broadcast, watch it. Otherwise, I suggest passing on ESPN's slate (a blowout in the making in Nova-Louisville, and an uninspiring Texas Tech-Kansas matchup), and maybe watch some 24.
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Duke 82, Virginia 63
Here's the chart from tonight's game against the Cavs:
Williams had a fantastic game - for those of you scoring at home, that's 8-1 UVA while he was on the bench, and 81-55 Duke the rest of the time. Note that the offense also (unsurprisingly) struggles a bit with Redick on the bench - only 6 points in 10 possessions tonight, and in the 5 games I've charted the difference is 1.18 against .78 (though that .78 is a pretty small sample size at just 23 offensive possessions). But I want to talk about Greg Paulus. Paulus has been getting a lot of flak for his turnovers, which are admittedly high. Of course, he helps offset that by leading the conference in assists. But what shocked me when I was putting together these numbers tonight was that the team has the best offensive efficiency (again, just in the 5 I've charted) when Paulus is on the floor. The team converts at a 1.20 ppp when Greg is manning the point, which is better than the team's ppp with any other player. Now, am I saying that if I had to choose one guy between Redick or Paulus to be on the court, I'd take Paulus? Of course not. But he's a big part of the reason that the offense has been running as smoothly as it has been, and the numbers prove that out. Yes, he makes freshman mistakes. But he also makes some brilliant plays - witness the running bounce pass to Nelson that was perfectly on his hands and the thread-the-needle-between-three-defenders bounce pass to Williams in the post. So take any criticism of him you read with a grain of salt, because I certainly don't think this offense would be better with someone else running the point.
As for the game, each half was itself a story of halves - Duke won the first half of each half by very large margins, but sort of hit cruise control in the latter 10 minutes and gave up easy scores to Virginia. I don't have it by the clock, but by possessions, the scores look like this: 1st 1/2 of the first half: 20-8 Duke (1.11ppp to .42)
2nd 1/2 of the first half:16-15 UVA (.94 to .83)
1st 1/2 of the second half: 29-14 Duke (1.71 to .875)
2nd 1/2 of the second half: 25-18 UVA (1.56 to 1.12)
Now, outscoring them by a combined 27 points in each first half obviously put the game out of reach, but it wasn't fun watching us play sloppy ball at the end of the first half, and it certainly wasn't fun watching a poor offensive team score almost at will in the second half (yes, a lot of their 2nd half offense was free throws, but usually you get free throws when you beat the defense and force a foul to prevent a made basket). There was a lot of good in this game (general offensive execution, JJ, early intensity, JJ, Shelden, ball movement, and, oh yeah, JJ) but there was also plenty that needs to be fixed (turnovers, sustained intensity, holding and expanding leads). We'll need to keep up the good and fix some of the bad for the game at BC this Wednesday.
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 55.5 | 1.32 | 56 | .84 |
| Paulus-off | 13.5 | .67 | 12 | 1.33 |
| Redick-on | 59 | 1.29 | 58.5 | .91 |
| Redick-off | 10 | .60 | 9.5 | 1.05 |
| Dockery-on | 49 | 1.18 | 49.5 | .95 |
| Dockery-off | 20 | 1.20 | 18.5 | .86 |
| McRoberts-on | 37.5 | 1.07 | 37.5 | .91 |
| McRoberts-off | 31.5 | 1.33 | 30.5 | .95 |
| Williams-on | 62 | 1.31 | 61 | .90 |
| Williams-off | 7 | .14 | 7 | 1.14 |
| Melchionni-on | 33.5 | 1.28 | 34.5 | .90 |
| Melchionni-off | 35.5 | 1.10 | 33.5 | .96 |
| Nelson-on | 36.5 | 1.01 | 34.5 | .99 |
| Nelson-off | 32.5 | 1.38 | 33.5 | .87 |
| Pocius-on | 5 | .4 | 63.5 | .90 |
| Pocius-off | 64 | 1.25 | 4.5 | 1.33 |
| Boykin-on | 3 | .00 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Boykin-off | 66 | 1.24 | 66 | .89 |
| Boateng-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Boateng-off | 67 | 1.22 | 67 | .91 |
| J. Davidson-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| J. Davidson-off | 67 | 1.22 | 67 | .91 |
| Team Totals | 69 | 1.188 | 68 | .926 |
Williams had a fantastic game - for those of you scoring at home, that's 8-1 UVA while he was on the bench, and 81-55 Duke the rest of the time. Note that the offense also (unsurprisingly) struggles a bit with Redick on the bench - only 6 points in 10 possessions tonight, and in the 5 games I've charted the difference is 1.18 against .78 (though that .78 is a pretty small sample size at just 23 offensive possessions). But I want to talk about Greg Paulus. Paulus has been getting a lot of flak for his turnovers, which are admittedly high. Of course, he helps offset that by leading the conference in assists. But what shocked me when I was putting together these numbers tonight was that the team has the best offensive efficiency (again, just in the 5 I've charted) when Paulus is on the floor. The team converts at a 1.20 ppp when Greg is manning the point, which is better than the team's ppp with any other player. Now, am I saying that if I had to choose one guy between Redick or Paulus to be on the court, I'd take Paulus? Of course not. But he's a big part of the reason that the offense has been running as smoothly as it has been, and the numbers prove that out. Yes, he makes freshman mistakes. But he also makes some brilliant plays - witness the running bounce pass to Nelson that was perfectly on his hands and the thread-the-needle-between-three-defenders bounce pass to Williams in the post. So take any criticism of him you read with a grain of salt, because I certainly don't think this offense would be better with someone else running the point.
As for the game, each half was itself a story of halves - Duke won the first half of each half by very large margins, but sort of hit cruise control in the latter 10 minutes and gave up easy scores to Virginia. I don't have it by the clock, but by possessions, the scores look like this: 1st 1/2 of the first half: 20-8 Duke (1.11ppp to .42)
2nd 1/2 of the first half:16-15 UVA (.94 to .83)
1st 1/2 of the second half: 29-14 Duke (1.71 to .875)
2nd 1/2 of the second half: 25-18 UVA (1.56 to 1.12)
Now, outscoring them by a combined 27 points in each first half obviously put the game out of reach, but it wasn't fun watching us play sloppy ball at the end of the first half, and it certainly wasn't fun watching a poor offensive team score almost at will in the second half (yes, a lot of their 2nd half offense was free throws, but usually you get free throws when you beat the defense and force a foul to prevent a made basket). There was a lot of good in this game (general offensive execution, JJ, early intensity, JJ, Shelden, ball movement, and, oh yeah, JJ) but there was also plenty that needs to be fixed (turnovers, sustained intensity, holding and expanding leads). We'll need to keep up the good and fix some of the bad for the game at BC this Wednesday.
Duke-UVA Preview
I've gotten to see an awful lot of UVA this year, being up in Charlottesville, and it's been very easy to see that their recent conference success has been the result of two things - commitment to defense, and control of the boards. Virginia has the conference's second best in-conference defensive efficiency, and is the best team in the league in terms of shot defense - 1st in eFG%, 3pt%, PPWS, and 4th in 2pt%. Their defense of choice has been the 2-3, with a healthy amount of 2-3 matchup mixed in (so it looks a lot like a 3-2 sometimes, depending on the way the opponent's space the floor). However, since they sit back in the zone, they don't force a lot of turnovers (18.4%, 9th in conference). Duke should be able to get a lot of shots against the zone, and with the Devils' shooting proficiency, will probably get plenty of points. Singletary and Reynolds are both quick enough to harass perimeter shooters, and Mikalauskas, Cain, and (to a lesser extent) Soroye are solid on the inside. Soroye has been starting at center, but he plays fewer minutes than Mikalauskas, and the Cavs have been a lot better this year when the big Lithuanian is on the floor. He and Cain are very good offensive rebounders - in fact, their numbers alone (they grab 28.4% of Virginia's missed shots while they're on the floor) are better than Duke's (just 28.2%).
The offense, however, is another story. Well, let's not mince words - it's really bad. They never seem to be in sync - neither Soroye nor Mikalauskas really knows what to do in the post, Adrian Joseph is an O'Kelley-esque gunner who probably shoots on at least half the touches he gets, and Singletary, as exciting as he can be to watch, makes some unbelievable atrocious decisions. Against Miami on Tuesday, in the first minute or so, he did a 360 dribble into a triple team, left his feet, and dumped the ball off to an empty space on the court that no teammate was within 8 feet of. That being said, he can do some pretty amazing things when he's on. In the second half against Miami he was on fire - with Reynolds hurt and Cain on the bench with 4 fouls, he simply took the game over. He's very quick with the ball, and may find success penetrating on Duke. But he's still not as polished a point as he could be - he turns the ball over a lot (22.8% of his possessions used) and despite leading the team in scoring, he's only 5th on the team in offensive rating and 4th in eFG%.
Virginia has had a nice run so far, but it's generally been against the poorer teams in conference - they sport wins over Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, and UNC. Their next four are at Duke, at NC State, home v. Wake, and at Maryland. Really only the Wake game looks winnable, and that's no guarantee. They're about to slide back to a record that's much closer to the pre-season predictions, and it'll start with a loss to the Devils tonight. Best case scenario - they hold on to the ball, keep the possessions low, and get a lot of offensive rebounds to make up for the shots they miss. Even then, they probably won't hold Duke under 65, and I'm not sure they can score that much tonight.
The offense, however, is another story. Well, let's not mince words - it's really bad. They never seem to be in sync - neither Soroye nor Mikalauskas really knows what to do in the post, Adrian Joseph is an O'Kelley-esque gunner who probably shoots on at least half the touches he gets, and Singletary, as exciting as he can be to watch, makes some unbelievable atrocious decisions. Against Miami on Tuesday, in the first minute or so, he did a 360 dribble into a triple team, left his feet, and dumped the ball off to an empty space on the court that no teammate was within 8 feet of. That being said, he can do some pretty amazing things when he's on. In the second half against Miami he was on fire - with Reynolds hurt and Cain on the bench with 4 fouls, he simply took the game over. He's very quick with the ball, and may find success penetrating on Duke. But he's still not as polished a point as he could be - he turns the ball over a lot (22.8% of his possessions used) and despite leading the team in scoring, he's only 5th on the team in offensive rating and 4th in eFG%.
Virginia has had a nice run so far, but it's generally been against the poorer teams in conference - they sport wins over Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, and UNC. Their next four are at Duke, at NC State, home v. Wake, and at Maryland. Really only the Wake game looks winnable, and that's no guarantee. They're about to slide back to a record that's much closer to the pre-season predictions, and it'll start with a loss to the Devils tonight. Best case scenario - they hold on to the ball, keep the possessions low, and get a lot of offensive rebounds to make up for the shots they miss. Even then, they probably won't hold Duke under 65, and I'm not sure they can score that much tonight.
Friday, January 27, 2006
So here's the on court/off court player-by-player efficiency chart for last night's game:
Josh played a really nice game for us - 4-6 from the floor, 7 boards (2 offensive) and 4 assists, and it showed in the stats. Both the offense and defense functioned better when he was on the court. DeMarcus gave us 16 very valuable defensive minutes - in that time, Tech scored just 24 points (compared to 43 in 24 minutes when he was off). Both he and Lee looked a step or so slow on offense, but it didn't show too badly on defense - Nelson was hassling their guards all over the perimeter. I posted yesterday that I thought Duke would try and bomb Tech out of the building from outside. For the first minute or so of the game, it looked like that would be the case. But when a few shots didn't fall for Redick, they committed to going inside to Williams, and the big man responded with a monster game - 24 and 15. A couple trends I pointed out yesterday did continue - Tech did a good job protecting the ball (just 9 turnovers on 72 possessions, or 12.5% TO percentage), and Duke gave up very few points from the line and beyond the arc (just 19 of 67), meaning Virginia Tech got 71.7% of its points off 2 point field goals. Also, after getting torched on the pass by Georgetown, the AB ratio returned to ACC norms - VT got just 33% of its baskets off assists, keeping the average for Duke conference opponents down in the 30s for the year. Still not a great job on the glass - Virginia Tech's OR% wasn't fantastic, at 36%, but considering they were last in the league coming in, it's kind of disappointing. All in all, I was still a little surprised at the effort - there were stretches where we looked flat, and seemed content to play down to VPI. Still, a win's a win, and a road win's even better. Hopefully I'll get the chance to put up a full preview of Duke-UVA for tomorrow, but I probably won't have any additional information on games to watch for (so you all can just scour the schedule and standings and find one that looks interesting for your own selves).
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 57 | 1.19 | 55 | 1.00 |
| Paulus-off | 16 | .75 | 17 | .71 |
| Redick-on | 66 | 1.09 | 67 | .90 |
| Redick-off | 7 | 1.14 | 5 | 1.40 |
| Dockery-on | 63.5 | 1.10 | 63.5 | .98 |
| Dockery-off | 9.5 | 1.05 | 8.5 | .59 |
| McRoberts-on | 50.5 | 1.13 | 51.5 | .83 |
| McRoberts-off | 22.5 | 1.02 | 20.5 | 1.17 |
| Williams-on | 54 | 1.19 | 54 | .98 |
| Williams-off | 19 | .84 | 18 | .78 |
| Melchionni-on | 39.5 | .99 | 34.5 | .90 |
| Melchionni-off | 33.5 | 1.22 | 37.5 | .96 |
| Nelson-on | 32.5 | .92 | 30.5 | .79 |
| Nelson-off | 40.5 | 1.23 | 41.5 | 1.04 |
| Boykin-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Boykin-off | 71 | 1.13 | 71 | .92 |
| Team Totals | 73 | 1.096 | 72 | .931 |
Josh played a really nice game for us - 4-6 from the floor, 7 boards (2 offensive) and 4 assists, and it showed in the stats. Both the offense and defense functioned better when he was on the court. DeMarcus gave us 16 very valuable defensive minutes - in that time, Tech scored just 24 points (compared to 43 in 24 minutes when he was off). Both he and Lee looked a step or so slow on offense, but it didn't show too badly on defense - Nelson was hassling their guards all over the perimeter. I posted yesterday that I thought Duke would try and bomb Tech out of the building from outside. For the first minute or so of the game, it looked like that would be the case. But when a few shots didn't fall for Redick, they committed to going inside to Williams, and the big man responded with a monster game - 24 and 15. A couple trends I pointed out yesterday did continue - Tech did a good job protecting the ball (just 9 turnovers on 72 possessions, or 12.5% TO percentage), and Duke gave up very few points from the line and beyond the arc (just 19 of 67), meaning Virginia Tech got 71.7% of its points off 2 point field goals. Also, after getting torched on the pass by Georgetown, the AB ratio returned to ACC norms - VT got just 33% of its baskets off assists, keeping the average for Duke conference opponents down in the 30s for the year. Still not a great job on the glass - Virginia Tech's OR% wasn't fantastic, at 36%, but considering they were last in the league coming in, it's kind of disappointing. All in all, I was still a little surprised at the effort - there were stretches where we looked flat, and seemed content to play down to VPI. Still, a win's a win, and a road win's even better. Hopefully I'll get the chance to put up a full preview of Duke-UVA for tomorrow, but I probably won't have any additional information on games to watch for (so you all can just scour the schedule and standings and find one that looks interesting for your own selves).
Thursday, January 26, 2006
What to Watch For - 1/26/06
# 1, of course, is Duke at Virginia Tech. On paper, this is a huge mismatch, with the best team in efficiency margin visiting the worst. If they play to their numbers in conference play, Duke would win by over 25. Of course, as we all know, Duke-Virginia Tech games the past two seasons have been anything but predictable. They scored a win last year in Blacksburg, and were a 40 ft jumper away from stealing a win in Cameron back in December. Let's go a little in depth based on the numbers from the conference season so far. This is one of the few conference teams that shouldn't be as much trouble on the boards. They rank 12th in OR% and 8th in DR%. These numbers were pretty consistent with the results last time - Duke rebounded 9 of its 31 missed shots, and VT got 7 of its 28. One thing that Tech does do well is win the turnover battle. They're first in the league in defensive turnover % and 2nd in offensive turnover % - in ACC play, they've forced 27 more turnovers than they's committed. One of the things we'll likely see tonight is what we saw in the first game - Duke pressuring the perimeter, Tech getting by that pressure and exploiting the 6-12 foot range. Both Dowdell and Gordon hit 50% of their 2s in the first game doing basically this. One of the benefits for Virginia Tech in this game is that the one thing (besides not turning the ball over) they do well on offense is shoot 2's - they rank 4th in the conference in 2pt%, and Duke ranks last in 2pt% defense. If they're patient on offense, exploit the holes, and don't turn the ball over, they should be able to execute fairly well, and keep the game close. If it's close in the last 5 minutes, Blacksburg will get really hostile, and at that point anything can happen.
Of course, there are several things Virginia Tech doesn't do well (after all, they're winless in conference). Scoring defense is one - they give up a .522 eFG% and 1.14 PPWS - 9th and 10th in conference, respectively. They're also an absolutely terrible 3 point shooting team - in conference play, they're hitting only .243 from 3. Combine that with Duke's conference leading .267 3pt field goal defense, and they should struggle beyond the arc. Last game they went 3 for 10, which is actually better than expected. If they get down big and start having to shoot 3s to come back, it's not going to happen. The disparity on the other side of the ball isn't quite as great, but it's still a big advantage for Duke - the Devils are 4th in 3 point percentage on offense, and Tech is just 8th on defense. Look for the Devils to try to exploit this early - the 20 3pt attempts against Tech in December is their second lowest total on the conference season. Tonight it's likely they'll be closer to 25-28. My memory is somewhat hazy, but the last time I can remember back-to-back Duke losses was to open the '99-'00 season. It says here that Duke comes out with a purpose tonight, and takes care of business in Blacksburg. But I still think it'll be closer than 25.
2) Ohio at Buffalo - the most anticipated game of the year in the MAC back in November has lost a little bit of its luster in the wake of some inconsistent play from the Bulls, but it still should be a heck of a contest. These are, without question, the two teams with the most talent in the MAC. It says here Buffalo holds the home court if and only if they improve on their turnover percentage - 25.2% in a loss to Central Michigan and an astounding 35.2% in a loss at Toledo.
3) Tennessee Tech at Murray State - The Golden Eagles have the gaudy RPI (79, really high - or low, depending on how you look at it - for the OVC) thanks to a non-con schedule that included Cincinnati, Michigan State, and UW-Milwaukee. They also are riding a 6 game winning streak. Murray State was the preseaon favorite in the conference, and sits just a half game back of Tenn Tech at 8-2. If the stats prevail, Murray State will win by double figures. But Tenn Tech has been winning despite being just an average team in almost all aspects. It says here the Racers hold home court and move a half game up on the Golden Eagles.
4) Washington at California - I don't think anyone in the league office would admit it, but the PAC-10 desperately needs Cal to win this game. They have only three teams with even moderately strong tournament profiles right now - Washington, UCLA, and Arizona. And really, only USC and Cal have a chance to improve enough to warrant a fourth bid. So a win over the best team in the conference would really boost Cal's resume and help the PAC get that fourth bid. This actually could be a decent matchup for Cal - Washington is small inside, with no substantial minutes to anyone over 6'8", and Cal gets a ton of production out of their post players. Leon Powe you know, but Devon Hardin you might not - the 6'11" sophomore center averages almost 10 and 7 a game, and has put up a very nice .552 field goal percentage. It says here that Cal pulls off the upset special, possibly with help from some home cooking behind the whistle.
Of course, there are several things Virginia Tech doesn't do well (after all, they're winless in conference). Scoring defense is one - they give up a .522 eFG% and 1.14 PPWS - 9th and 10th in conference, respectively. They're also an absolutely terrible 3 point shooting team - in conference play, they're hitting only .243 from 3. Combine that with Duke's conference leading .267 3pt field goal defense, and they should struggle beyond the arc. Last game they went 3 for 10, which is actually better than expected. If they get down big and start having to shoot 3s to come back, it's not going to happen. The disparity on the other side of the ball isn't quite as great, but it's still a big advantage for Duke - the Devils are 4th in 3 point percentage on offense, and Tech is just 8th on defense. Look for the Devils to try to exploit this early - the 20 3pt attempts against Tech in December is their second lowest total on the conference season. Tonight it's likely they'll be closer to 25-28. My memory is somewhat hazy, but the last time I can remember back-to-back Duke losses was to open the '99-'00 season. It says here that Duke comes out with a purpose tonight, and takes care of business in Blacksburg. But I still think it'll be closer than 25.
2) Ohio at Buffalo - the most anticipated game of the year in the MAC back in November has lost a little bit of its luster in the wake of some inconsistent play from the Bulls, but it still should be a heck of a contest. These are, without question, the two teams with the most talent in the MAC. It says here Buffalo holds the home court if and only if they improve on their turnover percentage - 25.2% in a loss to Central Michigan and an astounding 35.2% in a loss at Toledo.
3) Tennessee Tech at Murray State - The Golden Eagles have the gaudy RPI (79, really high - or low, depending on how you look at it - for the OVC) thanks to a non-con schedule that included Cincinnati, Michigan State, and UW-Milwaukee. They also are riding a 6 game winning streak. Murray State was the preseaon favorite in the conference, and sits just a half game back of Tenn Tech at 8-2. If the stats prevail, Murray State will win by double figures. But Tenn Tech has been winning despite being just an average team in almost all aspects. It says here the Racers hold home court and move a half game up on the Golden Eagles.
4) Washington at California - I don't think anyone in the league office would admit it, but the PAC-10 desperately needs Cal to win this game. They have only three teams with even moderately strong tournament profiles right now - Washington, UCLA, and Arizona. And really, only USC and Cal have a chance to improve enough to warrant a fourth bid. So a win over the best team in the conference would really boost Cal's resume and help the PAC get that fourth bid. This actually could be a decent matchup for Cal - Washington is small inside, with no substantial minutes to anyone over 6'8", and Cal gets a ton of production out of their post players. Leon Powe you know, but Devon Hardin you might not - the 6'11" sophomore center averages almost 10 and 7 a game, and has put up a very nice .552 field goal percentage. It says here that Cal pulls off the upset special, possibly with help from some home cooking behind the whistle.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Tempo-Free Stats Are Here!
As you will note in the several posts below, and in the link bar to the right, I now have tempo-free stats up for ACC teams. These are team stats only (I don't think I'll make the heroic effort required to do individual stats this season) and as of right now, only reflect games against conference opponents. I may attempt to add tempo-free stats for the full season, but they'll be linked separately - the conference stats are more reflective of a team's true level of play, since they come against generally equal levels of competition. These stats include last night's games. The next update to the stats will come Monday (I have a busy Friday), but then will occur every Friday and Monday for the rest of the season. If anyone has any questions, or wants further statistical explanation, please don't hesitate to let me know. Enjoy!
Point Distribution
A brief explanation. This measures where teams get their points from, and conversely where their opponent's get their points from. Each stat is a percentage of a team's total points that comes from either 2-point FGs, 3-point FGs, or free throws. The three numbers for each team should add up to 100% - any that don't are because of rounding. Final conference stats:
| 2PT Ratio | |
| Maryland | 60.40 |
| Virginia Tech | 59.90 |
| North Carolina | 59.85 |
| Georgia Tech | 59.40 |
| Clemson | 59.03 |
| Duke | 56.44 |
| Miami | 53.87 |
| NC State | 51.67 |
| Boston College | 51.57 |
| Wake Forest | 50.83 |
| Florida State | 48.85 |
| Virginia | 45.04 |
| Opponent 2PT Ratio | |
| Boston College | 61.88 |
| Clemson | 61.66 |
| Duke | 59.72 |
| NC State | 59.11 |
| Maryland | 58.68 |
| North Carolina | 54.45 |
| Wake Forest | 52.77 |
| Florida State | 52.27 |
| Virginia Tech | 52.19 |
| Virginia | 51.37 |
| Georgia Tech | 50.39 |
| Miami | 45.00 |
| 3PT Ratio | |
| Virginia | 33.65 |
| Florida State | 29.36 |
| NC State | 28.89 |
| Miami | 28.80 |
| Wake Forest | 27.80 |
| Clemson | 27.35 |
| Duke | 26.19 |
| Boston College | 23.00 |
| Georgia Tech | 22.66 |
| Maryland | 19.19 |
| North Carolina | 18.44 |
| Virginia Tech | 16.67 |
| Opponent 3PT Ratio | |
| Miami | 29.78 |
| Virginia Tech | 28.11 |
| Florida State | 28.02 |
| Virginia | 27.27 |
| North Carolina | 27.23 |
| Wake Forest | 24.92 |
| Georgia Tech | 24.50 |
| Boston College | 24.47 |
| NC State | 24.43 |
| Maryland | 22.84 |
| Duke | 20.18 |
| Clemson | 17.49 |
| FT Ratio | |
| Boston College | 25.44 |
| Virginia Tech | 23.44 |
| Florida State | 21.79 |
| North Carolina | 21.70 |
| Wake Forest | 21.38 |
| Virginia | 21.31 |
| Maryland | 20.40 |
| NC State | 19.44 |
| Georgia Tech | 17.94 |
| Duke | 17.37 |
| Miami | 17.33 |
| Clemson | 13.63 |
| Opponent FT Ratio | |
| Miami | 25.22 |
| Georgia Tech | 25.11 |
| Wake Forest | 22.31 |
| Virginia | 21.36 |
| Clemson | 20.85 |
| Duke | 20.09 |
| Florida State | 19.71 |
| Virginia Tech | 19.70 |
| Maryland | 18.48 |
| North Carolina | 18.32 |
| NC State | 16.46 |
| Boston College | 13.65 |
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