Saturday, March 11, 2006

Duke 80, Miami 76

Player

Off. Poss.

Off. PPP

Def. Poss.

Def. PPP

Paulus-on

52

1.13

52

1.15

Paulus-off

16

1.31

15

1.07

Redick-on

68

1.18

67

1.13

Redick-off

0

.00

0

.00

Dockery-on

33

1.06

34.5

1.25

Dockery-off

35

1.29

32.5

1.02

McRoberts-on

40.5

1.04

40.5

1.28

McRoberts-off

27.5

1.38

26.5

.91

Williams-on

65

1.18

63.5

1.13

Williams-off

3

1.00

3.5

1.14

Melchionni-on

23.5

1.45

22

.82

Melchionni-off

44.5

1.03

45

1.29

Nelson-on

50

1.36

48.5

1.03

Nelson-off

18

.67

18.5

1.41

Boykin-on

5

.60

4.5

1.11

Boykin-off

63

1.22

62.5

1.14

Boateng-on

3

.67

2.5

1.60

Boateng-off

65

1.20

64.5

1.12

Team Totals

68

1.176

67

1.134


So what do we know... this team is not going to go down as one of the great defensive teams in Duke history. Since the BC game, our defensive rating has been 101.97. Now I can't perform the fancy adjustments to allow for the opponents' offensive strength, but as a matter of raw numbers, this rating played out over the course of the season would rank somewhere around 190th in the country, around such stalwarts as Santa Clara, Hartford, and Fresno St (and shockingly, Michigan St - wow). Now, there was a point in time where we played good enough defense that even with this late slump, our raw rating for the season is 94.1. So how can we get back there? Two things - one is personnel: more minutes for Nelson and Dock, fewer for Lee and Greg. This doesn't need to be dramatic, but even a total shift of 8 minutes more combined for the first two would probably mean a 4 or 5 point difference. Second, I think we should sacrifice any thought of fast break. We don't score a ton of transition points of missed shots anyway, and so sending all 5 players to crash the glass would help control the defensive boards. Our defense is generally pretty solid on the first shot, but giving up offensive boards has let the other teams put up good PPP numbers. Since the BC game, opponents have gotten about 42% of their own misses. Cutting this down even to 35% would probably net another 4 or 5 points, even if it meant less transition opportunities for us (again, most of Duke's transition points come off of turnovers, not missed shots). These two minor changes could make a major difference.


1 comment:

Music 074 said...

I disagree about fewer minutes for Lee. He's offensive and defensive contributions are both among the best om the team. I suppose K is seeing the same things the numbers are telling us, and thus Lee is starting.