Duke, meet the Jackets. Jackets, meet Duke. It's February 27th and you're playing each other for the first time. But hey, enjoy that ACC football championship game check.
All snarkiness about expansion and the unbalanced schedule aside, this is the first and only meeting of the season for Duke and Georgia Tech. The Jackets set themselves up with a non-conference schedule that assumed the presence of Javaris Crittenton and (possibly) Thaddeus Young. Both became first-round draft picks. The schedule also assumed the presence of Ra'Sean Dickey, who promptly became injured and out for the season. In case you're scoring at home, that's 3 starters Georgia Tech expected back who suddenly were no longer there. A lineup of Crittenton, Morrow, Young, Smith, and Dickey would have been formidable. A lineup of Miller, Clinch, Morrow, Lawal, and Smith is, well, 11-14.
Things haven't been all negative for Coach Hewitt's squad. For a six game stretch, they played as well as anyone in the ACC, winning 4 and losing the others by just 1 (against UNC) and 2 (against Maryland). Since then, the wheels have fallen off (or, if you were looking to make a bad pun about last Thursday's non-game, the roof has started to cave in). The offense stalled out in losses to Clemson, UCon, and Miami, and the defense rolled over against Virginia Tech - it is a really, really poor performance to give up 92 points to the Hokie offense.
So the Jackets hit the road to take on Duke as losers of four straight. Although their ACC road record of 3-3 beats their home record of 1-4, they're not really a better road team - the Jackets have outscored their opponents at home despite the record, and have been outscored on the road. Tech will likely go at least nine deep - in addition to the 5 mentioned above, Zach Peacock, DeAndre Bell, Alade Aminu, and Matt Causey are all likely to see significant playing time, and Lance Storrs may get in on the action as well. The Jackets are a thoroughly average offensive team and a poor defensive team, in the bottom third in the country in three defensive categories (efg%, orb%, and FT rate). The Jackets have been very generous both in letting teams put the ball in the basket and in giving them second chances when they miss. This should be another game where Duke's offense can shine. When Georgia Tech has the ball, its point guards (Miller and Causey) are very turnover prone, especially on the road. It's a bit of a sloppy offense. To beat Duke in Cameron, Causey needs to hang on to the ball and create opportunities for himself and others, Morrow needs to have a hot shooting game from outside, and Lawal needs to play dominantly in the post (this has been trouble for him, for while he's shown flashes of brilliance in his freshman season, he picks up fouls like Lance Thomas).
Around the ACC
Virginia Tech inches one step closer to a berth. It's far from a sure thing, even if they finish 10-6. And I firmly believe they would be the worst at large team in the NCAA tournament - AD Vassallo and Jeff Allen are really the only guys on the team who know how to play offense. But the defense is shut-down good, and when you play D like they do (excepting the UNC game) you'll always have a chance to win.
In other action tonight, Miami and Clemson meet up in a game that Clemson really needs. Miami's remaining schedule is easy enough that they can still finish 9-7 even with a loss tonight. But Clemson has two potentially tough road games (at Maryland, at Georgia Tech) before finishing at home to the Hokies. Lose tonight, and the Tigers are staring 8-8 (or even 7-9) in the face. Although this Tiger team is highly regarded, it simply couldn't feel comfortable at 8-8, even with a "20" in the win column. And "20" is the other point at stake tonight - the winner becomes the third ACC team with 20 wins this season.
Also, FSU and NC State play. It's pretty much a meaningless game.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Duke 86, St. John's 56
After the Johnnies opened up the game on a 7-0 run, a collective "uh oh" likely rang out among Blue Devil fans. The Storm, whose offensive ineptitude all season was documented hear in the preview, scored 4 times in their first 5 possessions, and Duke missed its first 4 shots from the field. When Duke still trailed by 5 after the game's first 5 minutes, it looked like it could be another underwhelming performance. Of course, those were really the only 5 bad minutes Duke played. From that point on, it was 80-45 in 35 minutes of basketball. That's a good, old-fashioned blowout, that came from good, old-fashioned Duke basketball.
Duke hit 3s (40%) and 2s (50%), and turned over their opponents (18 in 75 possessions). 5 players scored in double figures, and another fell just short with 9 points. 7 players recorded assists, including 3 with 3 or more. And there were several individual performances for Devils' fans to be excited about - Henderson looked assertive for the first time since injuring his wrist, Scheyer had his shot again, and Brian Zoubek turned in an 11 and 13 double-double, the first of his career. And the defense was back - only 3 of the 12 Johnnies to see action shot 50% from the floor (and one of those went 1-2). The starters shot 11-38, including 2-9 from 3, and turned the ball over 12 times.
This was step 1 to righting the ship. To really overdue the nautical analogy, the Devils have plugged all the holes in the hull and rebuilt the mast. Now we've got four games to see if it's ready to sail into the post-season (and that will officially be the last nautical analogy on this site - at least this season).
Around the ACC
Let's talk tournament turkey - Duke and UNC are in, and (barring disaster for either team) will both be on a 1 or 2 line. Clemson seems to be locked, but they keep looking less than impressive. The question is who else joins them in the tournament. Maryland went from very safe to somewhat up in the air. With games at Wake, against Clemson, and at Virginia, there's suddenly a very real chance of the Terps finish 7-9. That would leave them on the outside looking in. Wake needs to win 3 of the last 4, which means holding serve at home and picking up a win at either of the Techs (actually, 4 in a row is a decently strong possibility for the Deacs). And then there's Virginia Tech, who still won't go away.
The way I see it, Maryland is in if they finish 9-7, but VT and Wake would have to sweat with the same record. Wake definitely holds an advantage over the Hokies with the win over Duke (and I still think they get a Prosser bump). Worst case scenario is Wake and Virginia Tech finishing at 9-7, Maryland at 8-8, and all three lose their ACCT first-rounders. While I don't really think there could only be 3 ACC teams in the tournament, that result would make it very, very hard to choose a 4th (or 5th).
However it plays out, the Terps, Hokies, and Deacons need to play with a sense of desperation over the last 2 weeks. All have the opportunity to play their way in (and it's feasible all 3 could), and have a similar opportunity to play their way out if they can't get the job done.
[Edit: Duh, Miami. Don't know how they slipped my mind last night. Miami might be in the best shape of everybody, with a good RPI and good computer rankings, a quality non-conference road win (something all three of the above teams lack), and a marquee win over Duke. Not to mention a favorable schedule - 3 of the last 4 games are against Virginia, BC, and FSU, and two of those are at home. They might be the likeliest team to make the tournament if everyone is stuck in the 9-7 neighborhood.]
Finally, I've started the process of trying to rebuild my database (I got a new computer on Saturday). My goal is to meet the same schedule I kept last year - season wrap-up and awards and an ACCT preview March 10-13, and NCAA previews March 17-19. But I make no promises.
Duke hit 3s (40%) and 2s (50%), and turned over their opponents (18 in 75 possessions). 5 players scored in double figures, and another fell just short with 9 points. 7 players recorded assists, including 3 with 3 or more. And there were several individual performances for Devils' fans to be excited about - Henderson looked assertive for the first time since injuring his wrist, Scheyer had his shot again, and Brian Zoubek turned in an 11 and 13 double-double, the first of his career. And the defense was back - only 3 of the 12 Johnnies to see action shot 50% from the floor (and one of those went 1-2). The starters shot 11-38, including 2-9 from 3, and turned the ball over 12 times.
This was step 1 to righting the ship. To really overdue the nautical analogy, the Devils have plugged all the holes in the hull and rebuilt the mast. Now we've got four games to see if it's ready to sail into the post-season (and that will officially be the last nautical analogy on this site - at least this season).
Around the ACC
Let's talk tournament turkey - Duke and UNC are in, and (barring disaster for either team) will both be on a 1 or 2 line. Clemson seems to be locked, but they keep looking less than impressive. The question is who else joins them in the tournament. Maryland went from very safe to somewhat up in the air. With games at Wake, against Clemson, and at Virginia, there's suddenly a very real chance of the Terps finish 7-9. That would leave them on the outside looking in. Wake needs to win 3 of the last 4, which means holding serve at home and picking up a win at either of the Techs (actually, 4 in a row is a decently strong possibility for the Deacs). And then there's Virginia Tech, who still won't go away.
The way I see it, Maryland is in if they finish 9-7, but VT and Wake would have to sweat with the same record. Wake definitely holds an advantage over the Hokies with the win over Duke (and I still think they get a Prosser bump). Worst case scenario is Wake and Virginia Tech finishing at 9-7, Maryland at 8-8, and all three lose their ACCT first-rounders. While I don't really think there could only be 3 ACC teams in the tournament, that result would make it very, very hard to choose a 4th (or 5th).
However it plays out, the Terps, Hokies, and Deacons need to play with a sense of desperation over the last 2 weeks. All have the opportunity to play their way in (and it's feasible all 3 could), and have a similar opportunity to play their way out if they can't get the job done.
[Edit: Duh, Miami. Don't know how they slipped my mind last night. Miami might be in the best shape of everybody, with a good RPI and good computer rankings, a quality non-conference road win (something all three of the above teams lack), and a marquee win over Duke. Not to mention a favorable schedule - 3 of the last 4 games are against Virginia, BC, and FSU, and two of those are at home. They might be the likeliest team to make the tournament if everyone is stuck in the 9-7 neighborhood.]
Finally, I've started the process of trying to rebuild my database (I got a new computer on Saturday). My goal is to meet the same schedule I kept last year - season wrap-up and awards and an ACCT preview March 10-13, and NCAA previews March 17-19. But I make no promises.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
St. John's Preview
It occurred to me as I thought about writing this preview that I couldn't name a single player on St. John's roster. Then I looked at their roster, and I understood why. 1 senior, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore, and 6 freshmen. Only Eugene Lawrence and Anthony Mason, Jr. were names I even recognized.
Understandably with that kind of youth, the Johnnies have had some growing pains this season. The offense is simply not good - they score just 0.94 points per possession on the season, and have had 11 games this season where they failed to score 0.90 points per possession. The Johnnies are both generous with the ball (turnovers on 22.7% of possessions) and utterly incapable of putting it in the basket (313th in the country in EFG%). No one shoots close to 50%, and sophomore Larry Wright is the only real threat from beyond the arc. The offense, or what offense there is, centers around Wright, Mason, and freshman Justin Burrell. This should be a chance for Duke's defense to get back on its feet. If the Devils can't stop this squad, there's reason to worry about the defense.
St. John's has won games this year on the defensive side of the basketball. Their defense is in the top 50 in the country in adjusted efficiency, although they don't excel in any particular category. They defend the three point line reasonably well, and do a decent job keeping teams off the glass. One big problem the Johnnies have had is fouling - opponents shoot a lot of free throws (although this may be related to the fact that they tend to be trailing at the end of games).
Sometimes playing games against bad teams can be as useful a barometer of where a team stands. Duke should win this game. How they win this game will say a lot about what we can expect from the team going forward. Duke's last two games have been flat - lots of turnovers (and really careless turnovers) on the offensive end, and lack of energy on the defensive end resulting in too many easy baskets. That can't become a trend, and this game provides an excellent opportunity for the Devils to reverse the trend.
Understandably with that kind of youth, the Johnnies have had some growing pains this season. The offense is simply not good - they score just 0.94 points per possession on the season, and have had 11 games this season where they failed to score 0.90 points per possession. The Johnnies are both generous with the ball (turnovers on 22.7% of possessions) and utterly incapable of putting it in the basket (313th in the country in EFG%). No one shoots close to 50%, and sophomore Larry Wright is the only real threat from beyond the arc. The offense, or what offense there is, centers around Wright, Mason, and freshman Justin Burrell. This should be a chance for Duke's defense to get back on its feet. If the Devils can't stop this squad, there's reason to worry about the defense.
St. John's has won games this year on the defensive side of the basketball. Their defense is in the top 50 in the country in adjusted efficiency, although they don't excel in any particular category. They defend the three point line reasonably well, and do a decent job keeping teams off the glass. One big problem the Johnnies have had is fouling - opponents shoot a lot of free throws (although this may be related to the fact that they tend to be trailing at the end of games).
Sometimes playing games against bad teams can be as useful a barometer of where a team stands. Duke should win this game. How they win this game will say a lot about what we can expect from the team going forward. Duke's last two games have been flat - lots of turnovers (and really careless turnovers) on the offensive end, and lack of energy on the defensive end resulting in too many easy baskets. That can't become a trend, and this game provides an excellent opportunity for the Devils to reverse the trend.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Around the ACC in 96 Points
1) Tough week for the top 4 in the ACC - after all the talk of how stratified the conference was, Duke, Clemson, and Maryland all dropped contests against "lesser" opponents.
2) Welcome to the NCAA conversation Miami and Wake Forest. We're very, very happy to have you a part of this.
3) Vaya con dios from the NCAA conversation NC State - it's a tribute to your pre-season expectations that you remained in the conversation this long.
4) Clemson's conference record is (somewhat) misleading - they're 7-2 against teams not named Duke or UNC.
5) That being said, losing by 9 to FSU?
6) Great game for Jason Rich - 10-13 from the floor on his way to 22 points.
7) Less great game for Toney Douglas, but he did overcome 7 turnovers to lead the Noles with 23.
8) FSU's assist to turnover ratio was 5:21. And they won by 9.
9) Number of 3's missed by KC Rivers.
10) Number of shots missed by James Mays (he was 0-10 from the floor and scored just 1 point)
11) Clemson's 3-point shooting percentage. 3 for 27 is not going to win any games.
12) Number of rebounds for Tyler Hansbrough in the win over NC State
13) Number of free throw attempts for Hansbrough (as Bilas said during the broadcast, he averages a triple double in points, rebounds, and FTAs).
14) Approximate number of minutes NC State played defense. I drank the Kool-Aid on this team all-season, convinced they were always just a game away from turning the corner, despite numbers that placed them at Virginia's level of futility in conference play. No longer. This is, quite simply, the worst and laziest defense in the conference.
15-36) (What, you thought I would actually have 96 items?) Hansbrough added 32 points to his 12 boards and 13 free throw attempts. The next time someone tells you Lawson is more important to this team than Hansbrough, ask yourself whether Lawson would be averaging over 30 points in Hansbrough's absence. Hansbrough's ACC season started slowly, but he has come on like gangbusters in February. As much as it pains me to say this, if he returns for his senior season (and plays like he has the past 3 years), he will be involved in the "greatest players ever" discussion for the ACC and the NCAA.
37-38) Minutes played by Hansbrough and Ellington, respectively. One as-yet unmentioned aspect of Lawson's absence has been the sharp increase in minutes for these two. So far it hasn't taken a toll, but we'll have to see if the heavy usage in February leaves just a little less gas left in the tank when March rolls around.
39) Scoreless bench minutes for the Terrapins. It's the equivalent of having one guy on the court at all times during the game who provides you with no offense.
40) Maryland has a propensity for laying eggs on offense, and last night was one of those nights.
41) Deron Washington is the least efficient scorer in the conference. Last night's shooting (4-10, 1-3 from 3) was one of his best performances of the ACC season.
42) Landon Milbourne's sudden offensive surge hit a bit of a speedbump. His ability to chip-in as a third option will be critical to Maryland's success in the NCAAs
43) The Hokies with Gus Gilchrist would have been a certain NCAA team.
44) Maryland next year with Gus Gilchrist will be a certain NCAA team.
45) Combined wins for Duke and UNC.
46) Combined conference wins for the 6 teams at or above .500 in conference play.
47) Days left in the college basketball season. Seriously. Check a calendar. It's kind of depressing.
48-73) 26 points for Dwayne Collins. Seriously. Check the box score. It's kind of depressing.
74) If you want proof that Gerald Henderson's wrist is bothering him, look no further than his number of attempts. Previously the player who took the highest percentage of shots while on the court, he's taken just 11 in his last 3 games (and made just 2).
75) 45 turnovers in the last 2 games for Duke - very out of character for a team that had been the toughest to turn over in conference play.
76) Duke let Miami put up an EFG of around 63%. By far the worst defensive performance of the season. In brief, in the last two games, Duke has played its 2nd worst offensive game of the year, and followed it up with its worst defensive game of the year.
77) But at least they hit their free throws - 77 percent for the game.
78-92) Duke made 15 threes last night (on 37 attempts). Miami attempted just 14 (and hit 7)
93) Duke opponents, who had been shooting under 30% from 3 in conference play, have hit 22 of their last 51 attempts.
94) I'm not sure I've ever been happier to see the words "St. John's" on our schedule.
95) Can't really blame the offense for the loss last night (although they turned the ball over too much). 95 points in roughly 85 possessions is good numbers. And while we shot better late than early,the Devils did score 45 points on their 37 three point attempts, which is a better point-per-shot number than the 30 points they scored on their 29 two-point attempts. But...
96) 96 points! In a regulation game? To Miami? Duke is still forcing turnovers at its season's pace - 23% for Wake, 25% for Miami. But they're not getting stops in the non-turnover possessions like they used to. Miami last night scored 96 points in roughly 64 non-turnover possessions - exactly 1.5 points in every possession where Duke didn't take the ball away (or equivalent to making a layup three out of every four possessions). That number needs to come back down to the season average (which is somewhere around 1.3). Time to re-commit on the defensive end, and it starts Saturday against St. John's.
2) Welcome to the NCAA conversation Miami and Wake Forest. We're very, very happy to have you a part of this.
3) Vaya con dios from the NCAA conversation NC State - it's a tribute to your pre-season expectations that you remained in the conversation this long.
4) Clemson's conference record is (somewhat) misleading - they're 7-2 against teams not named Duke or UNC.
5) That being said, losing by 9 to FSU?
6) Great game for Jason Rich - 10-13 from the floor on his way to 22 points.
7) Less great game for Toney Douglas, but he did overcome 7 turnovers to lead the Noles with 23.
8) FSU's assist to turnover ratio was 5:21. And they won by 9.
9) Number of 3's missed by KC Rivers.
10) Number of shots missed by James Mays (he was 0-10 from the floor and scored just 1 point)
11) Clemson's 3-point shooting percentage. 3 for 27 is not going to win any games.
12) Number of rebounds for Tyler Hansbrough in the win over NC State
13) Number of free throw attempts for Hansbrough (as Bilas said during the broadcast, he averages a triple double in points, rebounds, and FTAs).
14) Approximate number of minutes NC State played defense. I drank the Kool-Aid on this team all-season, convinced they were always just a game away from turning the corner, despite numbers that placed them at Virginia's level of futility in conference play. No longer. This is, quite simply, the worst and laziest defense in the conference.
15-36) (What, you thought I would actually have 96 items?) Hansbrough added 32 points to his 12 boards and 13 free throw attempts. The next time someone tells you Lawson is more important to this team than Hansbrough, ask yourself whether Lawson would be averaging over 30 points in Hansbrough's absence. Hansbrough's ACC season started slowly, but he has come on like gangbusters in February. As much as it pains me to say this, if he returns for his senior season (and plays like he has the past 3 years), he will be involved in the "greatest players ever" discussion for the ACC and the NCAA.
37-38) Minutes played by Hansbrough and Ellington, respectively. One as-yet unmentioned aspect of Lawson's absence has been the sharp increase in minutes for these two. So far it hasn't taken a toll, but we'll have to see if the heavy usage in February leaves just a little less gas left in the tank when March rolls around.
39) Scoreless bench minutes for the Terrapins. It's the equivalent of having one guy on the court at all times during the game who provides you with no offense.
40) Maryland has a propensity for laying eggs on offense, and last night was one of those nights.
41) Deron Washington is the least efficient scorer in the conference. Last night's shooting (4-10, 1-3 from 3) was one of his best performances of the ACC season.
42) Landon Milbourne's sudden offensive surge hit a bit of a speedbump. His ability to chip-in as a third option will be critical to Maryland's success in the NCAAs
43) The Hokies with Gus Gilchrist would have been a certain NCAA team.
44) Maryland next year with Gus Gilchrist will be a certain NCAA team.
45) Combined wins for Duke and UNC.
46) Combined conference wins for the 6 teams at or above .500 in conference play.
47) Days left in the college basketball season. Seriously. Check a calendar. It's kind of depressing.
48-73) 26 points for Dwayne Collins. Seriously. Check the box score. It's kind of depressing.
74) If you want proof that Gerald Henderson's wrist is bothering him, look no further than his number of attempts. Previously the player who took the highest percentage of shots while on the court, he's taken just 11 in his last 3 games (and made just 2).
75) 45 turnovers in the last 2 games for Duke - very out of character for a team that had been the toughest to turn over in conference play.
76) Duke let Miami put up an EFG of around 63%. By far the worst defensive performance of the season. In brief, in the last two games, Duke has played its 2nd worst offensive game of the year, and followed it up with its worst defensive game of the year.
77) But at least they hit their free throws - 77 percent for the game.
78-92) Duke made 15 threes last night (on 37 attempts). Miami attempted just 14 (and hit 7)
93) Duke opponents, who had been shooting under 30% from 3 in conference play, have hit 22 of their last 51 attempts.
94) I'm not sure I've ever been happier to see the words "St. John's" on our schedule.
95) Can't really blame the offense for the loss last night (although they turned the ball over too much). 95 points in roughly 85 possessions is good numbers. And while we shot better late than early,the Devils did score 45 points on their 37 three point attempts, which is a better point-per-shot number than the 30 points they scored on their 29 two-point attempts. But...
96) 96 points! In a regulation game? To Miami? Duke is still forcing turnovers at its season's pace - 23% for Wake, 25% for Miami. But they're not getting stops in the non-turnover possessions like they used to. Miami last night scored 96 points in roughly 64 non-turnover possessions - exactly 1.5 points in every possession where Duke didn't take the ball away (or equivalent to making a layup three out of every four possessions). That number needs to come back down to the season average (which is somewhere around 1.3). Time to re-commit on the defensive end, and it starts Saturday against St. John's.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Of Break-ins and Basketball
So my house got broken into yesterday while I was at work, and while the filthy little punk who did it managed to leave most of my things behind, I am no longer in the possession of my personal laptop. This obviously sucks for me, but it especially sucks for purposes of this site, because it means that I no longer have any of my handy-dandy statistical information. Thanks to having the work computer, I can still post, but don't expect much in the way of numbers. And expect increased sarcasm and bitterness.
As an aside, whoever broke into my house is a complete idiot. He (or she) walked into a room filled with sports memorabilia - signed baseballs, basketballs, and pictures - and took nothing but two pairs of leather gloves. He (or she) opened up my roommate's backpack, saw his laptop, camera, and iPod, and took none of it! And yet for some reason the little robber decided to grab my cell phone charger, of all things. Being robbed is one thing; being robbed by a moron is out and out depressing.
As an aside, whoever broke into my house is a complete idiot. He (or she) walked into a room filled with sports memorabilia - signed baseballs, basketballs, and pictures - and took nothing but two pairs of leather gloves. He (or she) opened up my roommate's backpack, saw his laptop, camera, and iPod, and took none of it! And yet for some reason the little robber decided to grab my cell phone charger, of all things. Being robbed is one thing; being robbed by a moron is out and out depressing.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Duke and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Game
When I was a little kid, I used to read a book called Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. I thought of that book yesterday at the end of the Wake game, when I'm sure more than a few Blue Devils contemplated their own moves to Australia (ok, enough children's book references for today). Duke had its 2nd worst shooting game of the season, its 2nd worst game turning the ball over, its 3rd worst game getting shots blocked, its 2nd worst game sending opponents to the free throw line, and to cap it all off, the worst performance from the free throw line all season. All of these things contributed to the Devils dropping their first conference game and their second game overall.
From the start, the Devils looked flat. They turned it over in 5 of the first 9 possessions, and consistently looked a half-step slower than Wake on both offense and defense. They let Wake push the tempo up the court, often letting Teague or Smith all the way into the lane before turning them around, at which point open shooters scattered around the perimeter. And there were several mental lapses - stupid passes, stupid fouls, defensive breakdowns, etc. Nonetheless, Duke was in a position to win the game. They led with 8:21 to play, and were within 6 as late as 2:02 left. But both the offense and the defense let down - from the time that Duke led 60-55, they finished 4-22 from the field with 7 turnovers in 11 minutes. That's not going to win any ballgames, let alone against a team that played as well as Wake Forest.
For the Deacs, Jeff Teague and James Johnson served serious notice on the league that Wake has turned the corner. The last two seasons (post-Chris Paul) have been ugly, but Wake seems to have the pieces in place to get back into contention. Not to mention they have some serious recruits coming to town in Al-Farouq Aminu, Ty Walker, and Tony Woods. But leave next year for next year - Wake now has a great chance to get back in the NCAAs this season. If they just hold home court, they'll be 18-11, 8-8 with wins over Duke and Maryland. If they can steal one on the road against either of the Techs, they're probably golden. Also, I know the committee says it doesn't look at conferences, only teams, but the ACC is the top conference in the RPI, and it would be odd if the ACC still got fewer teams than the Pac-10, Big East, Big XII, and as many as the SEC and Big 10. Wake is an appealing 5th team, not the least because the post-Prosser success is a compelling story.
For Duke, the task is to bounce back at Miami this week. They need to regain their confidence on offense and tighten up the defense to get the win.
Oh, and as an aside, if you have any no-hitters, winning streaks, or just anything else you'd like jinxing, I'm available. I bill my time in 6 minute increments.
From the start, the Devils looked flat. They turned it over in 5 of the first 9 possessions, and consistently looked a half-step slower than Wake on both offense and defense. They let Wake push the tempo up the court, often letting Teague or Smith all the way into the lane before turning them around, at which point open shooters scattered around the perimeter. And there were several mental lapses - stupid passes, stupid fouls, defensive breakdowns, etc. Nonetheless, Duke was in a position to win the game. They led with 8:21 to play, and were within 6 as late as 2:02 left. But both the offense and the defense let down - from the time that Duke led 60-55, they finished 4-22 from the field with 7 turnovers in 11 minutes. That's not going to win any ballgames, let alone against a team that played as well as Wake Forest.
For the Deacs, Jeff Teague and James Johnson served serious notice on the league that Wake has turned the corner. The last two seasons (post-Chris Paul) have been ugly, but Wake seems to have the pieces in place to get back into contention. Not to mention they have some serious recruits coming to town in Al-Farouq Aminu, Ty Walker, and Tony Woods. But leave next year for next year - Wake now has a great chance to get back in the NCAAs this season. If they just hold home court, they'll be 18-11, 8-8 with wins over Duke and Maryland. If they can steal one on the road against either of the Techs, they're probably golden. Also, I know the committee says it doesn't look at conferences, only teams, but the ACC is the top conference in the RPI, and it would be odd if the ACC still got fewer teams than the Pac-10, Big East, Big XII, and as many as the SEC and Big 10. Wake is an appealing 5th team, not the least because the post-Prosser success is a compelling story.
For Duke, the task is to bounce back at Miami this week. They need to regain their confidence on offense and tighten up the defense to get the win.
Oh, and as an aside, if you have any no-hitters, winning streaks, or just anything else you'd like jinxing, I'm available. I bill my time in 6 minute increments.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Wake Forest Preview
Duke and Wake are similar teams in a lot of ways. Both like to shoot the three ball. Both are very average inside in terms of rebounds and shot-blocking. Both do a generally good job hanging on to the basketball, and both are positive in turnover margin in conference play (Wake is +16, Duke is +69). The difference comes primarily in the ability of the two teams to put the ball in the basket. Duke is tops in the conference in shooting, while Wake is 7th, and only a recent string of really hot shooting has propelled them that high.
Two freshmen are leading the way for the Deacs this year, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Johnson's a do it all kind of player - he can score inside and outside, he rebounds well, and plays solid defense, generating a healthy percentage of both steals and blocks. Teague is a guard who prefers to shoot inside than outside, and picks up a healthy number of assists as well.
Wake has been a very good team at home this season. They're 4-1 in conference play, with the only loss coming against Georgia Tech when the defense decided to take the night off. In conference, they have a +9.43 efficiency margin at home, so they play like the third best team in the ACC at Lawrence-Joel.
The way I see it, this game comes down to three keys. First is turnovers. On the whole, Wake is good at hanging on to the ball - 3rd fewest turnovers in conference play. But they've struggled against the teams that focus on turning the opponents over - 22 TOs against Clemson, 20 against Georgia Tech, and 20 against Florida State. Last year in Cameron, Ish Smith was hounded into a 0 assist, 8 turnover performance, and although he's cut down on turnovers this year, he's still vulnerable (he had 17 in the three games listed above). Duke likes forcing turnovers, and this could be a problem for the Deacs.
Second is three point shooting. As a team, Wake had been awful from outside until the last three games. Over their first 20 contests, they took 21 3s a game, and hit fewer than 30% of them. Over the past three games, however, they've found their stroke - 30 for 61, including 8 of 13 at Florida State. I've always thought Wake was a better shooting team than their early season performance, but they're not as good as they've been recently. Duke is excellent at defending the perimeter, leading the conference in opponent's 3pt FG%. If Wake reverts to early season form, it will be a long afternoon for them.
Third is Chas McFarland. McFarland had a career game against Florida State (apparently getting socked in the face jump-started him a bit) - his first career double-double with 17 points and 10 boards. If he can continue to be a force inside for the Deacs, he can force Duke to double down and potentially open up the perimeter for some of Wake's shooters. But McFarland is the only inside threat Wake has - like Duke, the Deacs rely on slashing from the wing for most of their inside scoring. McFarland's ability to control the glass and score inside could provide a big boost to Wake Forest as they seek to knock off the Devils and improve their tournament resume.
Two freshmen are leading the way for the Deacs this year, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Johnson's a do it all kind of player - he can score inside and outside, he rebounds well, and plays solid defense, generating a healthy percentage of both steals and blocks. Teague is a guard who prefers to shoot inside than outside, and picks up a healthy number of assists as well.
Wake has been a very good team at home this season. They're 4-1 in conference play, with the only loss coming against Georgia Tech when the defense decided to take the night off. In conference, they have a +9.43 efficiency margin at home, so they play like the third best team in the ACC at Lawrence-Joel.
The way I see it, this game comes down to three keys. First is turnovers. On the whole, Wake is good at hanging on to the ball - 3rd fewest turnovers in conference play. But they've struggled against the teams that focus on turning the opponents over - 22 TOs against Clemson, 20 against Georgia Tech, and 20 against Florida State. Last year in Cameron, Ish Smith was hounded into a 0 assist, 8 turnover performance, and although he's cut down on turnovers this year, he's still vulnerable (he had 17 in the three games listed above). Duke likes forcing turnovers, and this could be a problem for the Deacs.
Second is three point shooting. As a team, Wake had been awful from outside until the last three games. Over their first 20 contests, they took 21 3s a game, and hit fewer than 30% of them. Over the past three games, however, they've found their stroke - 30 for 61, including 8 of 13 at Florida State. I've always thought Wake was a better shooting team than their early season performance, but they're not as good as they've been recently. Duke is excellent at defending the perimeter, leading the conference in opponent's 3pt FG%. If Wake reverts to early season form, it will be a long afternoon for them.
Third is Chas McFarland. McFarland had a career game against Florida State (apparently getting socked in the face jump-started him a bit) - his first career double-double with 17 points and 10 boards. If he can continue to be a force inside for the Deacs, he can force Duke to double down and potentially open up the perimeter for some of Wake's shooters. But McFarland is the only inside threat Wake has - like Duke, the Deacs rely on slashing from the wing for most of their inside scoring. McFarland's ability to control the glass and score inside could provide a big boost to Wake Forest as they seek to knock off the Devils and improve their tournament resume.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
ACC for the Weekend
UNC @ Virginia Tech - So there's a distinct possibility that the Heels will be 6 deep for this game - Thompson, Hansbrough, Ginyard, Ellington, Thomas, and Graves. We could even get a Mike Copeland or Greg Little sighting. I think Green, Stepheson, and Lawson are all technically questionable, but last I heard, they weren't playing. The question is, will it matter? The Hokies are not a fast team, they don't have good point guard play, and Jeff Allen can't contain the inside all by his lonesome. AD Vassallo will need to have a big, big game to keep the Hokies in it. It may be a lower scoring game than the Heels are used to, but when push comes to shove, they're still the better team (even missing three guys)
Clemson @ NC State - The Pack is now 4-6, and entering the must-win part of their schedule. They have home games remaining against UNC, Duke, and Clemson (and FSU). Their road schedule is relatively easy (at Virginia and at Wake). If any of the teams outside of the top-4 can make a run at the NCAAs, it's the Pack. They have a chance for 3 marquee wins. Realistically, they need to go 5-1 - NC State has been sufficiently underwhelming that 8-8 is not going to get the job done. Beating both Duke and UNC seems unlikely, so the win over Clemson becomes essential. Unfortunately, the Pack got slaughtered by the Tigers in the last meeting, losing by 16 and turning the ball over 36% of possessions. Cliff Hammonds has taken a much larger role in the offense recently, to good results. I like the Tigers in this one.
FSU @ Maryland - Maryland just has to avoid losing the games it's supposed to win, and their dance card will be locked up. They've won 6 of 8, and will likely be favored in no fewer than 5 of their remaining games. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Terps run the table - they have FSU, VT, and Clemson at home, and Virginia, Miami, and Wake on the road. They'll have every opportunity to play themselves into the #3 (or even #2 - since they hold the tiebreak with UNC) spot in the ACC. As for FSU, Matt Zitani played 20 minutes on Thursday night. That pretty much tells the story of FSU's season - attrition through injury (Alabi, Swann), transfer (Breeden), and idiocy (Reid).
ACC Sunday
Miami @ Georgia Tech - It's a shame Paul Hewitt couldn't have played Miami's schedule - they might have 18 wins right now instead of 11. He got snakebitten by scheduling for a team that would include Crittenton (and perhaps Young) and playing that schedule without both guys. At 11-12, they need to win out. Miami is in pretty much the same boat, but could possibly get it done with 6-1. Their problem is a very tough schedule - the next four games are @ Georgia Tech, Duke, Maryland, and @ Clemson. Ouch. Winning three of those four games would give the Canes both momentum and quality wins, both of which the team desperately needs. In this game, Georgia Tech has to avoid getting killed on the glass, and needs to turn Miami over. The latter is something they do very well at home. The last game Miami won at the free throw line - if they're as cold from outside as they were in the first game (2-19), they'll need to get back to the line to do some damage.
Virginia @ Boston College - I think this is a game the Cavs can win. BC is on at outside shooting streak that probably won't last - just under 50% from 3 in the last 3 games. John Oates is particularly ridiculous - he's hit 18 of 25 threes in conference play - that's 72.2%. That kind of performance is unsustainable, and bound to change at some point. And the teams actually match up very well - excellent point guards who can score and distribute, decent play from the wings, and no offense at all from the post. This could turn in to Singletary v. Rice, which would just be fun to watch. There's a legit chance that the two combine for 50+ points and 15+ assists.
Duke @ Wake Forest - tune in tomorrow.
Clemson @ NC State - The Pack is now 4-6, and entering the must-win part of their schedule. They have home games remaining against UNC, Duke, and Clemson (and FSU). Their road schedule is relatively easy (at Virginia and at Wake). If any of the teams outside of the top-4 can make a run at the NCAAs, it's the Pack. They have a chance for 3 marquee wins. Realistically, they need to go 5-1 - NC State has been sufficiently underwhelming that 8-8 is not going to get the job done. Beating both Duke and UNC seems unlikely, so the win over Clemson becomes essential. Unfortunately, the Pack got slaughtered by the Tigers in the last meeting, losing by 16 and turning the ball over 36% of possessions. Cliff Hammonds has taken a much larger role in the offense recently, to good results. I like the Tigers in this one.
FSU @ Maryland - Maryland just has to avoid losing the games it's supposed to win, and their dance card will be locked up. They've won 6 of 8, and will likely be favored in no fewer than 5 of their remaining games. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Terps run the table - they have FSU, VT, and Clemson at home, and Virginia, Miami, and Wake on the road. They'll have every opportunity to play themselves into the #3 (or even #2 - since they hold the tiebreak with UNC) spot in the ACC. As for FSU, Matt Zitani played 20 minutes on Thursday night. That pretty much tells the story of FSU's season - attrition through injury (Alabi, Swann), transfer (Breeden), and idiocy (Reid).
ACC Sunday
Miami @ Georgia Tech - It's a shame Paul Hewitt couldn't have played Miami's schedule - they might have 18 wins right now instead of 11. He got snakebitten by scheduling for a team that would include Crittenton (and perhaps Young) and playing that schedule without both guys. At 11-12, they need to win out. Miami is in pretty much the same boat, but could possibly get it done with 6-1. Their problem is a very tough schedule - the next four games are @ Georgia Tech, Duke, Maryland, and @ Clemson. Ouch. Winning three of those four games would give the Canes both momentum and quality wins, both of which the team desperately needs. In this game, Georgia Tech has to avoid getting killed on the glass, and needs to turn Miami over. The latter is something they do very well at home. The last game Miami won at the free throw line - if they're as cold from outside as they were in the first game (2-19), they'll need to get back to the line to do some damage.
Virginia @ Boston College - I think this is a game the Cavs can win. BC is on at outside shooting streak that probably won't last - just under 50% from 3 in the last 3 games. John Oates is particularly ridiculous - he's hit 18 of 25 threes in conference play - that's 72.2%. That kind of performance is unsustainable, and bound to change at some point. And the teams actually match up very well - excellent point guards who can score and distribute, decent play from the wings, and no offense at all from the post. This could turn in to Singletary v. Rice, which would just be fun to watch. There's a legit chance that the two combine for 50+ points and 15+ assists.
Duke @ Wake Forest - tune in tomorrow.
Friday, February 15, 2008
6 To Go
At the risk of jinxing what has been, to this point, an exceptional conference season for Duke, it's time to talk about what is suddenly the very real possibility that Duke turns the Sweet 16 again in ACC play. That's right, 16-0. It certainly won't be easy - of the six remaining games for Duke, four are on the road, and another is against UNC. Here are the six hurdles left to jump, in order of degree of difficulty:
1) UNC, 3/8, Durham - duh.
2) NC State, 3/1, Raleigh - yes, I've been hard on NC State this year. Yes, they've laid gi-normous eggs in their games against top opponents (first half UNC, second half Duke, Clemson). Yes, they looked awful on defense against BC (as they have all year). But talent is still talent, and the Wolfies will be looking for any kind of silver lining on their season by this point. It also says a lot about what I think of Duke's prospects for going 16-0 that this is the second most difficult game left.
3) Wake Forest, 2/17, Winston-Salem - Wake has been on a bit of a roll because their 3-point shots have started falling - nearly 50% over the last three games. That's obviously unsustainable, but their average in conference play is now at 34.5% (tells you how bad their outside shooting had been before), which is about right for this team. A lot of people see this weekend's game as a trap game for Duke. I'll have more detail on Sunday, but there's one reason why I'm less worried than others. This is Ish Smith's line from last season's meeting: 9 points (4-11 shooting), 0 assists, 8 turnovers. He may do better than that this time around (hard not to) but he's still going to struggle mightily against Duke's perimeter D.
4) Georgia Tech, 2/27, Durham - This game would have been a lot tougher at Georgia Tech. On the road, they're a thoroughly mediocre team. And rookie point guards (Mo Miller, Matt Causey) do not have a history of performing well in Cameron.
5) Miami, 2/20, Miami - Duke won rather comfortably in Cameron, and Miami is not all that imposing. Contain McClinton, and it will be very hard for the rest of the team to score enough points to keep up. Duke did that on Feb. 2, and it took four guys having exceptional shooting days for the Canes to even keep it close. I doubt that Hicks, Asbury, Graham, and Dews will combine to shoot 19-29 in the rematch.
6) Virginia, 3/5, Charlottesville - Virginia has an interesting habit of mailing in games against "unimportant" opponents, and getting super-jacked for when the big boys come to town (witness Tuesday's performance against UNC). So despite the fact that UVA is very, very bad this year, it's still a potential trap game. That's especially true given that it's just 3 days before the UNC game. Nonetheless, UVA is still a bad team. There's even less likelihood that someone outside of Singletary can carry the team than there is that someone outside of McClinton could pick up the slack for Miami.
1) UNC, 3/8, Durham - duh.
2) NC State, 3/1, Raleigh - yes, I've been hard on NC State this year. Yes, they've laid gi-normous eggs in their games against top opponents (first half UNC, second half Duke, Clemson). Yes, they looked awful on defense against BC (as they have all year). But talent is still talent, and the Wolfies will be looking for any kind of silver lining on their season by this point. It also says a lot about what I think of Duke's prospects for going 16-0 that this is the second most difficult game left.
3) Wake Forest, 2/17, Winston-Salem - Wake has been on a bit of a roll because their 3-point shots have started falling - nearly 50% over the last three games. That's obviously unsustainable, but their average in conference play is now at 34.5% (tells you how bad their outside shooting had been before), which is about right for this team. A lot of people see this weekend's game as a trap game for Duke. I'll have more detail on Sunday, but there's one reason why I'm less worried than others. This is Ish Smith's line from last season's meeting: 9 points (4-11 shooting), 0 assists, 8 turnovers. He may do better than that this time around (hard not to) but he's still going to struggle mightily against Duke's perimeter D.
4) Georgia Tech, 2/27, Durham - This game would have been a lot tougher at Georgia Tech. On the road, they're a thoroughly mediocre team. And rookie point guards (Mo Miller, Matt Causey) do not have a history of performing well in Cameron.
5) Miami, 2/20, Miami - Duke won rather comfortably in Cameron, and Miami is not all that imposing. Contain McClinton, and it will be very hard for the rest of the team to score enough points to keep up. Duke did that on Feb. 2, and it took four guys having exceptional shooting days for the Canes to even keep it close. I doubt that Hicks, Asbury, Graham, and Dews will combine to shoot 19-29 in the rematch.
6) Virginia, 3/5, Charlottesville - Virginia has an interesting habit of mailing in games against "unimportant" opponents, and getting super-jacked for when the big boys come to town (witness Tuesday's performance against UNC). So despite the fact that UVA is very, very bad this year, it's still a potential trap game. That's especially true given that it's just 3 days before the UNC game. Nonetheless, UVA is still a bad team. There's even less likelihood that someone outside of Singletary can carry the team than there is that someone outside of McClinton could pick up the slack for Miami.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Duke 90, BC 80
Very weird game to watch. In the first half, I thought Duke thoroughly outplayed BC. They turned them over a ton, grabbed a bunch of offensive boards, and forced BC into several highly contested shots. Of course, BC hit many of the highly contested shots (some were just ridiculous) and walked away with a 1-point halftime lead (thanks in large part to Duke's inability to hit uncontested 15 footers with the clock stopped). In the second half, aside from two quick spurts (one to start the half and one with about 7 minutes to play), I thought BC thoroughly out-played Duke. The press got about a half-step slower, leading to more open looks for the Eagles. And yet, Duke walked out of the building with a 10 point win. Just goes to show you can't always believe your eyes.
In the bigger picture, Duke's defense must now be considered a point of some concern. Still statistically tops in the conference, it has been very up and down. 5 teams have put up better than a point per possession, and Duke has allowed opponents to post EFG%'s of .565 or worse 4 times in the last 7 games. At the same time, they held the Heels to just .93 points per possession on .428 shooting, so what do I know.
Around the ACC
Things are starting to shake out a little in the ACC. Virginia has officially mailed in its season before the postage gets hiked to 42 cents. Miami, FSU, and BC are each about a loss away from starting to make doe-eyes at the NIT selection committee. NC State and Wake are together at 4-5 - I know I'm in the minority, but I like Wake's chances a lot more than NC State's. In games against the top 4 teams in the conference, NC State is almost -30!! in efficiency margin. I haven't seen anything (other than 20 minutes against Duke - which, by the way, would look not at all impressive if you flipped the two halves of that game; in fact, it would look an awful lot like the Pack's second half against the Heels after dropping a giant stink-bomb in the first) to suggest that this NC State team is markedly improved from the squad that lost to New Orleans and ECU.
Georgia Tech dropped their last golden opportunity for a marquee non-conference win. They pretty much have to go 7-1 or 8-0 (or win the ACCT) to play in the NCAAs. They finished hot down the stretch last year - can they do it again? Virginia Tech is all alone in 5th, but is none too comfortable after dropping consecutive games to NC State and Miami. The Hokies still have to go to UNC, Maryland, and Clemson. Lose all three of those and it's time to start selling NIT tickets at Cassell Coliseum.
Whereas the bottom 8 teams can't seem to do much of anything right for any extended run of games, the top 4 have really set themselves apart from the pack. Yes, Clemson is 5-4, but after seeing their two games against UNC, I refuse to believe they aren't one of the 20 best teams in the country. If they just hold court at home and take care of the winnable road games (FSU, NCSU), they'll be sitting pretty at 10-6. But let's be honest, they're fine even at 9-7. Maryland's offense has been firing on all cylinders since struggling early against VT and Wake. It helps that they've hit 40.4% of their 3s over the last 6 games. Turnovers are still the Achilles heel.
And UNC and Duke are, well, UNC and Duke (although I hear the Heels are petitioning to have Phil Ford suit up at PG against Virginia). A get well soon from this site to Marcus Ginyard and Ty Lawson (and, for that matter, Bobby Frasor, although we know he won't get well soon enough to help the Heels this year) - it's always fun to beat Carolina, but it's even more fun to do it when they're all healthy. I for one hope the rematch can pit both teams at full strength - it will be a heck of a game to watch.
In the bigger picture, Duke's defense must now be considered a point of some concern. Still statistically tops in the conference, it has been very up and down. 5 teams have put up better than a point per possession, and Duke has allowed opponents to post EFG%'s of .565 or worse 4 times in the last 7 games. At the same time, they held the Heels to just .93 points per possession on .428 shooting, so what do I know.
Around the ACC
Things are starting to shake out a little in the ACC. Virginia has officially mailed in its season before the postage gets hiked to 42 cents. Miami, FSU, and BC are each about a loss away from starting to make doe-eyes at the NIT selection committee. NC State and Wake are together at 4-5 - I know I'm in the minority, but I like Wake's chances a lot more than NC State's. In games against the top 4 teams in the conference, NC State is almost -30!! in efficiency margin. I haven't seen anything (other than 20 minutes against Duke - which, by the way, would look not at all impressive if you flipped the two halves of that game; in fact, it would look an awful lot like the Pack's second half against the Heels after dropping a giant stink-bomb in the first) to suggest that this NC State team is markedly improved from the squad that lost to New Orleans and ECU.
Georgia Tech dropped their last golden opportunity for a marquee non-conference win. They pretty much have to go 7-1 or 8-0 (or win the ACCT) to play in the NCAAs. They finished hot down the stretch last year - can they do it again? Virginia Tech is all alone in 5th, but is none too comfortable after dropping consecutive games to NC State and Miami. The Hokies still have to go to UNC, Maryland, and Clemson. Lose all three of those and it's time to start selling NIT tickets at Cassell Coliseum.
Whereas the bottom 8 teams can't seem to do much of anything right for any extended run of games, the top 4 have really set themselves apart from the pack. Yes, Clemson is 5-4, but after seeing their two games against UNC, I refuse to believe they aren't one of the 20 best teams in the country. If they just hold court at home and take care of the winnable road games (FSU, NCSU), they'll be sitting pretty at 10-6. But let's be honest, they're fine even at 9-7. Maryland's offense has been firing on all cylinders since struggling early against VT and Wake. It helps that they've hit 40.4% of their 3s over the last 6 games. Turnovers are still the Achilles heel.
And UNC and Duke are, well, UNC and Duke (although I hear the Heels are petitioning to have Phil Ford suit up at PG against Virginia). A get well soon from this site to Marcus Ginyard and Ty Lawson (and, for that matter, Bobby Frasor, although we know he won't get well soon enough to help the Heels this year) - it's always fun to beat Carolina, but it's even more fun to do it when they're all healthy. I for one hope the rematch can pit both teams at full strength - it will be a heck of a game to watch.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Carolina Recap and BC Preview
Much has already been said about Duke's win at Carolina on Wednesday, so I'm sure nothing I have to add will be particularly original. A lot of people stuck this game on their calendar as the barometer game for Duke. Much of Duke's early season performance was "yes, but..." Yes they're undefeated in conference, but they haven't played particularly well against lots of those teams. Yes their only loss was by 1 in overtime, but who have they played? The Carolina game was the test game - a chance to see if this young, talented team could step up against one of the supposed juggernauts in college basketball this season.
Well, step up they did. Duke played a very good game in a hostile environment against a talented team (albeit one without its all-American point guard). The Devils dictated the pace and style of play on both sides of the ball. Carolina got very few break opportunities (either primary or secondary) and had a lot of trouble getting the ball into Tyler Hansbrough. Duke harassed the perimeter and forced UNC into 20 turnovers. On offense, the spread worked almost to perfection. Duke got almost any open look they wanted from outside the 3-point line, and also generated many one-on-one opportunities for layups or mid-range shots. Every Devil except Thomas and McClure was given the ball at the top of the key and allowed to break down their defender for either a layup or a pass-off for 3. And the Heels couldn't do anything with the high screen, pick-and-pop plays.
So it's fair to say that the Devils are back in the national picture and on the short list of teams that can compete for the championship. I think popular perception has them behind Memphis, Kansas, and UCLA in a group that includes Georgetown, Tennessee, and UNC, and I happen to think that's about right.
Of course, the worst thing that could happen is that everyone starts patting everybody's back and getting a little complacent. Duke still needs to play like they have something to prove. I'm not too worried about a Krzyzewski coached team getting complacent.
Today they jump right back on the horse against Boston College. BC is a terrible defensive team. They got torched by both UNC and Clemson on the road. If you take out the early season blowout of Wake, their efficiency margin over the remaining games would place them as the worst team in the ACC. The Eagles haven't held any of their last 5 opponents under 1.12 points per possession. Long story short, Duke should score a lot of points. I believe BC is without Shamari Spears, their starting power forward. On a team that barely went 8 deep before, his loss has hurt (although Josh Southern has played well in his newly increased role). When BC has the ball, it will stay mainly in the hands of Ty Rice. He's in the top 5 in the conference in both scoring and assists, and has been a one-man show for most of the season. Aside from Rice, only Rakim Sanders and Corey Raji are particularly interested in shooting the ball. The Eagles are also very vulnerable to turnovers - 22% as a team, with each player about equally generous with the ball.
All in all, the recipe is in place for a blowout, and while it's always dangerous to predict blowouts, I see no reason why one won't occur.
Around the ACC
Virginia is very bad. Singletary just has no help, and Leitao still can't figure out what his ideal rotation looks like. Clemson absolutely ate them alive on Thursday night. Virginia is now last in the league both in the standings and by the numbers. A win at Wake today would be nice, but their season is done for all intents and purposes. Even an NIT bid could be tough to come by.
Georgia Tech has a huge opportunity for a statement win today at Connecticut. Unfortunately, the Huskies are a terrible matchup for the Jackets, who don't do a lot of scoring from the perimeter and don't do particularly well on the glass. But this is probably a game that Tech needs to win if they want to stay in the NCAA conversation.
Miami has a must-win game at Va Tech. They've shown that their early season success was largely a result of schedule, as their performance in conference has been less than stellar, particularly on the defensive end. Virginia Tech needs this game too. Still left on the schedule are trips to Maryland, Clemson, and UNC. They can lose those three and still go 9-7 - any other loss and they're staring .500 in the face.
NC State travels to a Maryland team that is trying to prove it's the third best team in the conference. They're probably not - Clemson's e-margin in conference play is actually above UNC's right now, and substantially better than Maryland's (which is even with Georgia Tech). NC State is in the middle of the pack at 4-4, but it's a somewhat deceptive record. They've been killed by the good teams they played - Duke, UNC, and Clemson beat the Pack by an average of 22.3 points, and until this week, their conference wins were by 2, 3, and 2 points. Maryland is a good team, and I think they'll run over the Pack at home.
Well, step up they did. Duke played a very good game in a hostile environment against a talented team (albeit one without its all-American point guard). The Devils dictated the pace and style of play on both sides of the ball. Carolina got very few break opportunities (either primary or secondary) and had a lot of trouble getting the ball into Tyler Hansbrough. Duke harassed the perimeter and forced UNC into 20 turnovers. On offense, the spread worked almost to perfection. Duke got almost any open look they wanted from outside the 3-point line, and also generated many one-on-one opportunities for layups or mid-range shots. Every Devil except Thomas and McClure was given the ball at the top of the key and allowed to break down their defender for either a layup or a pass-off for 3. And the Heels couldn't do anything with the high screen, pick-and-pop plays.
So it's fair to say that the Devils are back in the national picture and on the short list of teams that can compete for the championship. I think popular perception has them behind Memphis, Kansas, and UCLA in a group that includes Georgetown, Tennessee, and UNC, and I happen to think that's about right.
Of course, the worst thing that could happen is that everyone starts patting everybody's back and getting a little complacent. Duke still needs to play like they have something to prove. I'm not too worried about a Krzyzewski coached team getting complacent.
Today they jump right back on the horse against Boston College. BC is a terrible defensive team. They got torched by both UNC and Clemson on the road. If you take out the early season blowout of Wake, their efficiency margin over the remaining games would place them as the worst team in the ACC. The Eagles haven't held any of their last 5 opponents under 1.12 points per possession. Long story short, Duke should score a lot of points. I believe BC is without Shamari Spears, their starting power forward. On a team that barely went 8 deep before, his loss has hurt (although Josh Southern has played well in his newly increased role). When BC has the ball, it will stay mainly in the hands of Ty Rice. He's in the top 5 in the conference in both scoring and assists, and has been a one-man show for most of the season. Aside from Rice, only Rakim Sanders and Corey Raji are particularly interested in shooting the ball. The Eagles are also very vulnerable to turnovers - 22% as a team, with each player about equally generous with the ball.
All in all, the recipe is in place for a blowout, and while it's always dangerous to predict blowouts, I see no reason why one won't occur.
Around the ACC
Virginia is very bad. Singletary just has no help, and Leitao still can't figure out what his ideal rotation looks like. Clemson absolutely ate them alive on Thursday night. Virginia is now last in the league both in the standings and by the numbers. A win at Wake today would be nice, but their season is done for all intents and purposes. Even an NIT bid could be tough to come by.
Georgia Tech has a huge opportunity for a statement win today at Connecticut. Unfortunately, the Huskies are a terrible matchup for the Jackets, who don't do a lot of scoring from the perimeter and don't do particularly well on the glass. But this is probably a game that Tech needs to win if they want to stay in the NCAA conversation.
Miami has a must-win game at Va Tech. They've shown that their early season success was largely a result of schedule, as their performance in conference has been less than stellar, particularly on the defensive end. Virginia Tech needs this game too. Still left on the schedule are trips to Maryland, Clemson, and UNC. They can lose those three and still go 9-7 - any other loss and they're staring .500 in the face.
NC State travels to a Maryland team that is trying to prove it's the third best team in the conference. They're probably not - Clemson's e-margin in conference play is actually above UNC's right now, and substantially better than Maryland's (which is even with Georgia Tech). NC State is in the middle of the pack at 4-4, but it's a somewhat deceptive record. They've been killed by the good teams they played - Duke, UNC, and Clemson beat the Pack by an average of 22.3 points, and until this week, their conference wins were by 2, 3, and 2 points. Maryland is a good team, and I think they'll run over the Pack at home.
Friday, February 01, 2008
Duke 55, NC State 26
What's that you say? The score above is incorrect? There was a first half to this game? Bah!
Duke won the game with the most impressive half of offense we're likely to see all season. Duke scored 55 points in just 31 possessions, for an astounding 177.42 offensive rating. 21 of the 31 possessions ended in a made field goal, with an additional 3 possessions ending with Duke converting 2-for-2 at the stripe. The Devils shot an excellent .766efg%, and when they did miss, they got the ball right back, gathering up 10 of the 13 misses. NC State's offense in the second half wasn't terrible, although they turned the ball over too much and missed some free throws. But there was just no keeping up with the Devils in the second half - Duke's offense clicked in a way it hasn't since JJ Redick last played Texas.
NC State took the lead in the first half by doing all the things it had not been able to do all season long. They kept Duke off the offensive glass (and picked up some offensive boards of their own). They forced turnovers. They hit threes. And they scored points - 46 in a half for a team that averages in the 60s. But when the second half started, it was back to the old habits - no rebounding, no takeaways, no threes, and generosity in returning the ball to Duke. In the second half, the Devils were +14 in attempts, +12 in makes, +21 in points from 3, +5 in turnovers, and +12 on the glass (+6 on each end). All those pluses added up to a second half rout, and another disappointing performance for the Pack.
Greg Paulus kept himself on the floor last night with his best game of the season, exploding for 22 points with 6 assists, no turnovers, and three steals. Coach K didn't mess around too much with the lineup in the second half - only 7 lineup changes over the course of the half. He likely didn't want to mess with the offensive chemistry and momentum his starting lineup was showing, and it certainly worked. It was as little as Duke has used the bench all season, but it was also the right call - last night the depth was not needed.
Duke has a quick turnaround with a 3:30 et Saturday tilt against Miami before The Rivalry next week. After seeing the relative ease with which both Duke and UNC dispatched their foes tonight, it doesn't look like either team is looking ahead. But Duke/UNC is now just 6 days away, and I'm positively giddy - the way both teams have played so far this season, the rivalry matchups should be classics.
Duke won the game with the most impressive half of offense we're likely to see all season. Duke scored 55 points in just 31 possessions, for an astounding 177.42 offensive rating. 21 of the 31 possessions ended in a made field goal, with an additional 3 possessions ending with Duke converting 2-for-2 at the stripe. The Devils shot an excellent .766efg%, and when they did miss, they got the ball right back, gathering up 10 of the 13 misses. NC State's offense in the second half wasn't terrible, although they turned the ball over too much and missed some free throws. But there was just no keeping up with the Devils in the second half - Duke's offense clicked in a way it hasn't since JJ Redick last played Texas.
NC State took the lead in the first half by doing all the things it had not been able to do all season long. They kept Duke off the offensive glass (and picked up some offensive boards of their own). They forced turnovers. They hit threes. And they scored points - 46 in a half for a team that averages in the 60s. But when the second half started, it was back to the old habits - no rebounding, no takeaways, no threes, and generosity in returning the ball to Duke. In the second half, the Devils were +14 in attempts, +12 in makes, +21 in points from 3, +5 in turnovers, and +12 on the glass (+6 on each end). All those pluses added up to a second half rout, and another disappointing performance for the Pack.
Greg Paulus kept himself on the floor last night with his best game of the season, exploding for 22 points with 6 assists, no turnovers, and three steals. Coach K didn't mess around too much with the lineup in the second half - only 7 lineup changes over the course of the half. He likely didn't want to mess with the offensive chemistry and momentum his starting lineup was showing, and it certainly worked. It was as little as Duke has used the bench all season, but it was also the right call - last night the depth was not needed.
Duke has a quick turnaround with a 3:30 et Saturday tilt against Miami before The Rivalry next week. After seeing the relative ease with which both Duke and UNC dispatched their foes tonight, it doesn't look like either team is looking ahead. But Duke/UNC is now just 6 days away, and I'm positively giddy - the way both teams have played so far this season, the rivalry matchups should be classics.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
NC State Preview
Coming into the season, NC State was a consensus pick to be a certain tournament team and possibly to make some serious noise in the post-season. They added an All-American center to an already talented mix of wings and posts. Sydney Lowe's red coat had been the centerpiece of a remarkable string of wins to end the season, nearly taking the ACC tournament crown from the 10th spot.
When JJ Hickson had arguably the most impressive debut for an ACC freshman, all the pundits and prognosticators patted themselves on the back - look how good the Pack can be. Pretty much since then, the season has been a colossal "ugh." The Pack's lack of a point guard has been a killer, particularly since Farnold Degand went down with an injury. Javier Gonzalez and Marques Johnson, the replacements, both turn the ball over in more than 1/3 of the possessions they use. The other major problem has been the inability of Costner, McCauley, and Hickson to coexist inside. The result of this has been as drastic a fall-off in performance for the two incumbents as I can recall. Last year Costner and McCauley had high offensive ratings and high field goal percentages. They each cleaned up on the glass, and McCauley even posted a 20%+ assist rate. This year, their numbers are down in every category - fewer points, fewer rebounds, worse shooting, fewer assists, and more turnovers. Costner's performance has been so bad he got himself pulled from the starting lineup, and he played just 15 minutes against Georgia Tech. Part of me says this has to be statistical aberration, and that Costner (and to a lesser extent McCauley) are too good for this to continue. And yet, it continues with every passing game, and if anything, it's getting worse.
NC State ranks last in defensive efficiency and second-to-last in offensive efficiency in conference play. Their fg% defense isn't bad, thanks to lots of size, both in the post and on the wing. But the Pack is really hurt by an inability to secure defensive rebounds and a total lack of interest in taking the ball away from their opponent. NC State ranks 335th nationally in defensive takeaways - yes, you read that correctly, 335th. This means opponents get a lot of extra opportunities to try to put the ball in the hole (262 more field goal attempts, to be precise), effectively negating the good shooting defense and leading to lots of scoring for the opposition.
This does not look to be a good matchup for the Pack. Gonzalez and Johnson are turnover-prone points playing their first game in Cameron, against a Duke defense that has fed off of steals all season. Courtney Fells and Hickson have been the only reliable scorers on a team that doesn't have a high-scoring offense. The recipe is right for a blowout. Yes it's the ACC, and yes the games have been unpredictable, and yes NC State has lots of size inside where Duke is weak. But I just can't see the Pack staying close in this one - too many turnovers and easy baskets for Duke will doom NC State tonight. I expect a 15-25 point margin, something in the 80s to something in the 60s.
When JJ Hickson had arguably the most impressive debut for an ACC freshman, all the pundits and prognosticators patted themselves on the back - look how good the Pack can be. Pretty much since then, the season has been a colossal "ugh." The Pack's lack of a point guard has been a killer, particularly since Farnold Degand went down with an injury. Javier Gonzalez and Marques Johnson, the replacements, both turn the ball over in more than 1/3 of the possessions they use. The other major problem has been the inability of Costner, McCauley, and Hickson to coexist inside. The result of this has been as drastic a fall-off in performance for the two incumbents as I can recall. Last year Costner and McCauley had high offensive ratings and high field goal percentages. They each cleaned up on the glass, and McCauley even posted a 20%+ assist rate. This year, their numbers are down in every category - fewer points, fewer rebounds, worse shooting, fewer assists, and more turnovers. Costner's performance has been so bad he got himself pulled from the starting lineup, and he played just 15 minutes against Georgia Tech. Part of me says this has to be statistical aberration, and that Costner (and to a lesser extent McCauley) are too good for this to continue. And yet, it continues with every passing game, and if anything, it's getting worse.
NC State ranks last in defensive efficiency and second-to-last in offensive efficiency in conference play. Their fg% defense isn't bad, thanks to lots of size, both in the post and on the wing. But the Pack is really hurt by an inability to secure defensive rebounds and a total lack of interest in taking the ball away from their opponent. NC State ranks 335th nationally in defensive takeaways - yes, you read that correctly, 335th. This means opponents get a lot of extra opportunities to try to put the ball in the hole (262 more field goal attempts, to be precise), effectively negating the good shooting defense and leading to lots of scoring for the opposition.
This does not look to be a good matchup for the Pack. Gonzalez and Johnson are turnover-prone points playing their first game in Cameron, against a Duke defense that has fed off of steals all season. Courtney Fells and Hickson have been the only reliable scorers on a team that doesn't have a high-scoring offense. The recipe is right for a blowout. Yes it's the ACC, and yes the games have been unpredictable, and yes NC State has lots of size inside where Duke is weak. But I just can't see the Pack staying close in this one - too many turnovers and easy baskets for Duke will doom NC State tonight. I expect a 15-25 point margin, something in the 80s to something in the 60s.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Maryland Recap
Duke won this game 22-10. The final score may have read 93-84, but the real margin of victory was 22-10. That was the discrepancy in turnovers - Duke forced 22, Maryland could muster only 10. Getting 12 free possessions was key in a game where Maryland got pretty much whatever it wanted inside. Duke's defense and defensive rotation is geared toward the perimeter, and Maryland was able to take advantage of weaknesses inside. Both Gist and Osby had impressive games, although Osby tired toward the end. Duke also got easy opportunities in transition that Maryland, for the most part, did not. Those easy opportunities helped Duke shoot better than any conference opponent thus far against the Terps defense. It was Maryland's worse defensive efficiency performance of the entire year, and the generosity of its offense is at least partially to blame.
The Devils set the tone for the second half by picking up three quick Maryland turnovers and six quick points. Even though Maryland kept scoring with relative ease, Duke had seized the momentum and held it for the rest of the game. As I was going back and inputting the play-by-play from the game, I was actually surprised to see how late it was that Duke got the lead back, and how much later it was until they had the lead for good - watching the game, it seemed like Duke was in control for much of the second half.
I'm in the process of switching my data entry to a web-based system (graciously designed and programmed by a good friend), and won't be able to update stats until everything is completely switched over, so the Duke stats will remain horribly out-of-date. Hopefully this will be ready to go after the UNC game next week, but it could take until tournament time to have everything running fully smoothly. My apologies.
The Devils set the tone for the second half by picking up three quick Maryland turnovers and six quick points. Even though Maryland kept scoring with relative ease, Duke had seized the momentum and held it for the rest of the game. As I was going back and inputting the play-by-play from the game, I was actually surprised to see how late it was that Duke got the lead back, and how much later it was until they had the lead for good - watching the game, it seemed like Duke was in control for much of the second half.
I'm in the process of switching my data entry to a web-based system (graciously designed and programmed by a good friend), and won't be able to update stats until everything is completely switched over, so the Duke stats will remain horribly out-of-date. Hopefully this will be ready to go after the UNC game next week, but it could take until tournament time to have everything running fully smoothly. My apologies.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Maryland Preview
This has been a "gut-check" week for the Devils - two games on the road, in particularly hostile arenas, against the 2nd and 3rd best defenses in the conference (as judged by conference play so far). Duke, Virginia Tech, and Maryland are the only schools to allow fewer than one point per possession to ACC opponents so far this season. Duke was able to exceed that number against the Hokies (1.05 ppp), and will look to do the same against Maryland.
The big key to this game will be inside play. Duke leads the conference shooting an astounding 61% on two-point shots, and has not been held under 54% in a conference game. Maryland leads the conference in defending the two, holding opponents to just 40.1% inside. A big reason for this is Maryland's excellent block rate of 12%, second only to BC in conference play. Duke's ability to avoid the blocks and to get easy looks inside will be critical - if Maryland can hold the Devils to 45% or lower from 2, that will be a big leg up toward the Terps getting an upset win. Of course, to do that, Maryland needs its offense to help its defense. Maryland has been turnover prone all season (although less so in conference play), and Vazquez in particular has had at least 4 in 7 of the last 8 games and in 13 games overall this season. Duke has been relentless thus far in forcing turnovers - more than 1 every 4 possessions in conference play, and only 4 teams overall have been able to turn the ball over fewer than 1 in 5. Many of Duke's turnovers have been coming via the steal (a conference-leading 14.8%), which means open court opportunities, which contributes directly to the high 2pt fg%. Maryland needs to avoid the open court turnovers if it hopes to win this game. If Duke's points off turnovers starts getting north of 15, good night Terps.
Maryland will also need to be wary of trading 2 for 3 too many times. The Terps don't shoot the ball outside often at all, and Eric Hayes is the only real deep threat. The team as a whole is shooting under 30% from three in conference play, and gets fewer points from outside the arc than anyone in the conference. Duke, on the other hand, has been shooting threes with somewhat reckless abandon - 25.5 attempts a game so far in conference play. While the results have been decidedly mixed (only 32.4% so far), Duke's shooters are clearly better from outside, and capable of getting hot at almost any moment. If Duke hits at 35% or better from outside, it could be hard for the Terps to keep up, especially if turnovers are costing them opportunities on the offensive end.
So how do the Terps spring the upset? Item 1 would be force the Devils inside, where Maryland's defense excels. Item 2 is hold on to the ball - Maryland's turnover % needs to be around 20, and they need as few open court turnovers as possible. And Item 3 is get on the glass. Maryland has a size advantage from Gist, Osby, and Shane Walker. The Terps haven't been a great rebounding team thus far, but if they can hammer the glass to get second chance opportunities, they can keep the score close.
Around the ACC
Yesterday's results were depressing from an NCAA perspective. Both BC and FSU have relatively good tournament profiles - probably better than any of the other 9 teams behind Duke, UNC, and Clemson. Both lost at home to teams with bad tournament profiles. Not one of the other 9 teams seems capable, at this point, of distinguishing itself from the rest of the pack. Teams seem to trade wins and losses, and we could very well be looking at a season where there are just a whole bunch of teams jumbled in the middle. The teams that looked like shoe-ins for last (NC State, Georgia Tech, Wake) have been very frisky in conference play, and the teams that looked like they might be a step above (Miami, BC, Florida State) have not. 3 teams in the NCAAs is looking like an alarmingly realistic outcome - heck, if Miami beats Clemson today, there will almost certainly be only 2 ACC teams in the top 25. The ACC really needs a couple teams from the middle of the pack to get hot and distinguish themselves from the rest of the field.
The big key to this game will be inside play. Duke leads the conference shooting an astounding 61% on two-point shots, and has not been held under 54% in a conference game. Maryland leads the conference in defending the two, holding opponents to just 40.1% inside. A big reason for this is Maryland's excellent block rate of 12%, second only to BC in conference play. Duke's ability to avoid the blocks and to get easy looks inside will be critical - if Maryland can hold the Devils to 45% or lower from 2, that will be a big leg up toward the Terps getting an upset win. Of course, to do that, Maryland needs its offense to help its defense. Maryland has been turnover prone all season (although less so in conference play), and Vazquez in particular has had at least 4 in 7 of the last 8 games and in 13 games overall this season. Duke has been relentless thus far in forcing turnovers - more than 1 every 4 possessions in conference play, and only 4 teams overall have been able to turn the ball over fewer than 1 in 5. Many of Duke's turnovers have been coming via the steal (a conference-leading 14.8%), which means open court opportunities, which contributes directly to the high 2pt fg%. Maryland needs to avoid the open court turnovers if it hopes to win this game. If Duke's points off turnovers starts getting north of 15, good night Terps.
Maryland will also need to be wary of trading 2 for 3 too many times. The Terps don't shoot the ball outside often at all, and Eric Hayes is the only real deep threat. The team as a whole is shooting under 30% from three in conference play, and gets fewer points from outside the arc than anyone in the conference. Duke, on the other hand, has been shooting threes with somewhat reckless abandon - 25.5 attempts a game so far in conference play. While the results have been decidedly mixed (only 32.4% so far), Duke's shooters are clearly better from outside, and capable of getting hot at almost any moment. If Duke hits at 35% or better from outside, it could be hard for the Terps to keep up, especially if turnovers are costing them opportunities on the offensive end.
So how do the Terps spring the upset? Item 1 would be force the Devils inside, where Maryland's defense excels. Item 2 is hold on to the ball - Maryland's turnover % needs to be around 20, and they need as few open court turnovers as possible. And Item 3 is get on the glass. Maryland has a size advantage from Gist, Osby, and Shane Walker. The Terps haven't been a great rebounding team thus far, but if they can hammer the glass to get second chance opportunities, they can keep the score close.
Around the ACC
Yesterday's results were depressing from an NCAA perspective. Both BC and FSU have relatively good tournament profiles - probably better than any of the other 9 teams behind Duke, UNC, and Clemson. Both lost at home to teams with bad tournament profiles. Not one of the other 9 teams seems capable, at this point, of distinguishing itself from the rest of the pack. Teams seem to trade wins and losses, and we could very well be looking at a season where there are just a whole bunch of teams jumbled in the middle. The teams that looked like shoe-ins for last (NC State, Georgia Tech, Wake) have been very frisky in conference play, and the teams that looked like they might be a step above (Miami, BC, Florida State) have not. 3 teams in the NCAAs is looking like an alarmingly realistic outcome - heck, if Miami beats Clemson today, there will almost certainly be only 2 ACC teams in the top 25. The ACC really needs a couple teams from the middle of the pack to get hot and distinguish themselves from the rest of the field.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Virginia Tech Preview
Virginia Tech's conference record of 2-2 is better than expected, given that they opened with 3 road games in the first 4. Any win on the road this season by a team not named Duke or North Carolina is unexpected - the gap between the rest of the teams is so small that home court advantage should play more of a decisive role this season than in recent memory. On paper, this one looks like a blowout - the Hokies are without Jeff Allen thanks to an "excuse me" elbow to a referee last weekend, which takes away one of their three primary scorers. Allen, AD Vassallo, and Deron Washington are really the only offense for the team - no one else except Dorenzo Hudson takes many shots. To call the Hokies offensively challenged would be generous. They have centers who don't score, point guards who don't shoot (and turn the ball over), and wings who can't hit from outside (except Vassallo). Put that offense against a Duke defense that has been very, very good all year, and you can expect a low number from the Hokies.
On the other side of the court, the Virginia Tech defense has been extremely stingy. Teams do not shoot well against the Hokies, and Virginia Tech also limits easy points by cleaning up on the defensive glass (70.9% of defensive boards) and not putting opponents on the line. The Hokies also have quick size to match up with Duke on the perimeter - Washington is an especially good defender who will likely be assigned to either Singler or Henderson, depending on Duke's lineup - as essentially the whole team is between 6'5" and 6'9". Duke's ability to shoot over taller players and compete on the offensive glass will be a key to the game.
When all is said and done, the Hokies simply don't have the offense to win tonight. Still, Blacksburg has not been kind to the Devils over the years, and it will be a loud and hostile environment tonight. Duke withstood an angry crowd against a better Florida State team and came out on top, and tonight should be no different.
Around the ACC
Tyler Hansbrough had his first really good game in ACC play with 10-15 from the floor and 15-16 from the line as the Heels cruise at Miami. UNC hit the boards very well, no small feat against the Canes front line.
"Douglas stole the ball" probably won't go down in "Havlicek stole the ball" fame, but his pickpocket of Singletary and subsequent FTs sealed the deal for the Noles last night. Holding court was essential to FSU, who avoided falling to 1-4 in ACC play.
Somebody better throw a bucket of water on Matt Causey, because he's been on fire. After hitting double figures just once in the first 16 games, he dropped 30 on the Hokies and followed up with 18 on the Pack. He's 16-24 from the field, including 8-13 from three, in his last two games. Continuing a year-long theme, Brandon Costner had a disappointing game for the Pack.
Why Wake Forest shoots so many threes is a mystery to me. They're awful from behind the arc - 28.8% as a team, but they chuck them up for over 1/3 of their shots. Their efg% from 3 is worse than their efg% from 2, which is not easy to do. They have effective inside scorers and Ish Smith is a good penetrator - they should take a look down I-40 to Chapel Hill for guidance and stop taking so many threes. In other news, Clemson stinks at the FT line again. Oliver Purnell should offer the guy at FSU whatever he wants to come up the road and teach the Tigers in the off-season.
On the other side of the court, the Virginia Tech defense has been extremely stingy. Teams do not shoot well against the Hokies, and Virginia Tech also limits easy points by cleaning up on the defensive glass (70.9% of defensive boards) and not putting opponents on the line. The Hokies also have quick size to match up with Duke on the perimeter - Washington is an especially good defender who will likely be assigned to either Singler or Henderson, depending on Duke's lineup - as essentially the whole team is between 6'5" and 6'9". Duke's ability to shoot over taller players and compete on the offensive glass will be a key to the game.
When all is said and done, the Hokies simply don't have the offense to win tonight. Still, Blacksburg has not been kind to the Devils over the years, and it will be a loud and hostile environment tonight. Duke withstood an angry crowd against a better Florida State team and came out on top, and tonight should be no different.
Around the ACC
Tyler Hansbrough had his first really good game in ACC play with 10-15 from the floor and 15-16 from the line as the Heels cruise at Miami. UNC hit the boards very well, no small feat against the Canes front line.
"Douglas stole the ball" probably won't go down in "Havlicek stole the ball" fame, but his pickpocket of Singletary and subsequent FTs sealed the deal for the Noles last night. Holding court was essential to FSU, who avoided falling to 1-4 in ACC play.
Somebody better throw a bucket of water on Matt Causey, because he's been on fire. After hitting double figures just once in the first 16 games, he dropped 30 on the Hokies and followed up with 18 on the Pack. He's 16-24 from the field, including 8-13 from three, in his last two games. Continuing a year-long theme, Brandon Costner had a disappointing game for the Pack.
Why Wake Forest shoots so many threes is a mystery to me. They're awful from behind the arc - 28.8% as a team, but they chuck them up for over 1/3 of their shots. Their efg% from 3 is worse than their efg% from 2, which is not easy to do. They have effective inside scorers and Ish Smith is a good penetrator - they should take a look down I-40 to Chapel Hill for guidance and stop taking so many threes. In other news, Clemson stinks at the FT line again. Oliver Purnell should offer the guy at FSU whatever he wants to come up the road and teach the Tigers in the off-season.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Virginia Preview
Lineup questions are present for both teams heading into the final conference opener. For Duke, the questions center around Thomas' ability to play, and speculation about just how small we'll go if he can't - personally, if he can't go, I'd like to see K have some fun and go uber-small at least once, with a Paulus, Smith, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson lineup, and play press-and-gun basketball. Luckily for Duke, UVA's frontline consists of a whole lot of guys who bring nothing to the table but size, so this is as good a game as any to be missing our starting and back-up big guys.
For Virginia, Dave Leitao has simply been schizophrenic about who plays. Coach K gets a lot of criticism for tightening the rotation too much, but Leitao has shown the dangers of going the other way and trying to play a 15-man rotation just because he can. With the exception of Singletary, Diane, and Joseph (and to a lesser extent Baker), no one on the Virginia team knows how much they'll play in any given game (if they play at all). The result has been maddeningly inconsistent play from the Cavaliers. To a certain extent, I can't blame Leitao - he has a ton of virtually interchangeable parts. There's not a whole lot of difference between Mikalauskas, Pettinella, Soroye (slightly better blocker, slightly worse rebounder), and Meyinsse; and similarly, there's not really much difference between Tat, Tucker, Harris, and Jones. The problem is not that these guys are all so good that he can't keep them off the floor - instead it's that none are very good, and that all can do things that hurt UVA on the court, and Leitao hasn't figured out which guys in these two groups he actually trusts. Until he does, he's going to keep the minutes for each going up and down like a yo-yo, and the Cavaliers won't build any consistency.
Sean Singletary's annual slow start hasn't helped things either. Much like last season, Singletary has not been an efficient offensive player early in the season. He shoots under 40% from 2 and turns the ball over a ton - he actually has the lowest offensive rating among UVA's starters. Yes, he's always capable of getting hot and just killing a team, but it hasn't really happened yet this year.
Singletary is just selfish enough and just inefficient enough that the Marco Killingsworth game-plan may work on him. When Duke played Indiana a couple years ago, the Devils decided to let Killingsworth do his thing and focus on shutting down everyone else on the court. It worked - Killingsworth had a big game, but got absolutely no help, and Duke won. Letting Singletary run loose in a similar manner may not be a bad game-plan. If he scores 30-35, but UVA only scores 60, the Devils are going to win. The key is making sure that the Cavs don't get multiple guys in double figures. Singletary can't beat Duke by himself.
Around the ACC
UNC is good. NC State is not. 25-0 is embarrassing.
Wake Forest will continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Allowing 13-19 from 3 is ridiculous.
FSU may be better than we thought, and could be a serious threat if/when guys like Vaughn, Alabi, Reid, and Breeden come back. Numbers you don't see too often - 4 guys played 47+ minutes for the Noles and another played 41. Also, Trevor Booker is a beast - he's starting to take over this Clemson team.
Vazquez is struggling without 3 seniors taking pressure off of him in the lineup - 2-14 and 6 turnovers. There's a saying that not all close games are good games, and this one was a good example.
Miami has a tournament bid to lose at this point. I haven't seen anything to show me that they shouldn't finish above Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, NC State, and FSU.
For Virginia, Dave Leitao has simply been schizophrenic about who plays. Coach K gets a lot of criticism for tightening the rotation too much, but Leitao has shown the dangers of going the other way and trying to play a 15-man rotation just because he can. With the exception of Singletary, Diane, and Joseph (and to a lesser extent Baker), no one on the Virginia team knows how much they'll play in any given game (if they play at all). The result has been maddeningly inconsistent play from the Cavaliers. To a certain extent, I can't blame Leitao - he has a ton of virtually interchangeable parts. There's not a whole lot of difference between Mikalauskas, Pettinella, Soroye (slightly better blocker, slightly worse rebounder), and Meyinsse; and similarly, there's not really much difference between Tat, Tucker, Harris, and Jones. The problem is not that these guys are all so good that he can't keep them off the floor - instead it's that none are very good, and that all can do things that hurt UVA on the court, and Leitao hasn't figured out which guys in these two groups he actually trusts. Until he does, he's going to keep the minutes for each going up and down like a yo-yo, and the Cavaliers won't build any consistency.
Sean Singletary's annual slow start hasn't helped things either. Much like last season, Singletary has not been an efficient offensive player early in the season. He shoots under 40% from 2 and turns the ball over a ton - he actually has the lowest offensive rating among UVA's starters. Yes, he's always capable of getting hot and just killing a team, but it hasn't really happened yet this year.
Singletary is just selfish enough and just inefficient enough that the Marco Killingsworth game-plan may work on him. When Duke played Indiana a couple years ago, the Devils decided to let Killingsworth do his thing and focus on shutting down everyone else on the court. It worked - Killingsworth had a big game, but got absolutely no help, and Duke won. Letting Singletary run loose in a similar manner may not be a bad game-plan. If he scores 30-35, but UVA only scores 60, the Devils are going to win. The key is making sure that the Cavs don't get multiple guys in double figures. Singletary can't beat Duke by himself.
Around the ACC
UNC is good. NC State is not. 25-0 is embarrassing.
Wake Forest will continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Allowing 13-19 from 3 is ridiculous.
FSU may be better than we thought, and could be a serious threat if/when guys like Vaughn, Alabi, Reid, and Breeden come back. Numbers you don't see too often - 4 guys played 47+ minutes for the Noles and another played 41. Also, Trevor Booker is a beast - he's starting to take over this Clemson team.
Vazquez is struggling without 3 seniors taking pressure off of him in the lineup - 2-14 and 6 turnovers. There's a saying that not all close games are good games, and this one was a good example.
Miami has a tournament bid to lose at this point. I haven't seen anything to show me that they shouldn't finish above Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, NC State, and FSU.
Monday, December 31, 2007
New Year's Resolutions
A happy New Year to all of you out in ACC-land. In lieu of full season previews this year, we're going through the ACC to look at some New Year's Resolutions for teams as they head into 2008.
Boston College: More shots for Corey Raji. The 6'5" freshman has been an extremely efficient scorer in his 20 min/g this year, shooting an astounding .742 efg% behind 70.8% from 2 and 57.1% from 3.
Will it be kept? No reason why not. Ty Rice and Rakim Sanders will still take a lot of shots, but there's not really any other option better than Raji. Raji's effectiveness will almost certainly go down some as the season wears on, but if it stays even close to this level, he'll be a very valuable offensive threat for the Eagles.
Clemson: Pretend the ACC opponents are not in the ACC. Over the last 3 years, Clemson is 37-3 in the non-conference season, but it hasn't translated into ACC success or a tournament bid. Clemson has again put itself in good position with a strong non-conference performance, but needs to follow through in conference play this year to get back into the NCAAs.
Will it be kept? Maybe. Clemson gets a big test early - 3 of the first 4 conference games are against UNC, NC St, and at Duke. The conference schedule is again not kind to the Tigers, and there's a greater than zero chance that if they struggle early, they may not be able to recover and get the 9-11 conference wins they can. But this Clemson team certainly has the talent to succeed and return to the tournament for the first time in years.
Duke: Take the damn ball! Duke's success on defense this year has been most strongly correlated to its ability to turn its opponents over. The only three games that Duke allowed about a point per possession are also the only three games that the opponent didn't cough the ball up more than 20% of the time. Duke's return to a more fast-breaking style of basketball has generally meant that these turnovers turn into easy offense for the Devils, so turning the opponent over has benefits for both the offense and the defense.
Will it be kept? Highly likely. The Devils have a disruptive perimeter defense and lots of ACC teams are not particularly adept at holding onto the ball.
Florida State: Get healthy. Ryan Reid, Casaan Breeden, and Julian Vaughn are all hurt, resulting in FSU starting former walk-on Matt Zitani against Georgia Tech. The Noles are down to seven players, 5 of whom are guards, and four of whom are 6'3" or smaller.
Will it be kept? I actually don't know - I can't find what the injury status of Reid, Breeden, and Vaughn are. But if they don't get them back, it's going to be a long season for FSU.
Georgia Tech: Play some defense. The Jackets have been very generous on the defensive end, giving up more than a point per possession in 8 of their 12 games, and letting opponents shoot extremely well from the floor.
Will it be kept? Not likely. None of the players are defensive stalwarts, and not having Dickey inside has really hurt. Tech appears to be in for some serious defensive struggles all season.
Maryland: Fix the offense. Maryland's offense has had serious problems so far this year. They're worst in the ACC in turnovers, second to last in shooting, and second to last in offensive efficiency. The defense has been solid, but the offensive inability is going to keep Maryland losing.
Will it be kept? Doubtful, although there is some precedent for it. Last year the offense came on like gangbusters at the end of the season after struggling early. Of course, last year they had DJ, Jones, and Ibekwe, who, as Rick Pitino would say, aren't walking through that door.
Miami: Keep hitting the glass. Miami's offensive success rests primarily on its ability to gather offensive boards. It gives them easy second chance opportunities, and also helps them get to the line, both of which they do as well as anyone in the conference.
Will it be kept? Absolutely - it was their one offensive strength last year and with the return of Anthony King this year in addition to Graham and Collins, they have three frontcourt studs to vacuum up the offensive boards.
North Carolina: Teach QT to hold onto the ball. With Bobby Frasor hurt, Thomas is the only true point guard the Heels have to back up Ty Lawson. Thomas has been extremely turnover prone in his 4 seasons with the Heels. If they can't rely on him to take care of the ball, it'll be hard for the Heels to sit Lawson down for any meaningful periods of time, and given his frenetic pace of play, he could get gassed late with too many minutes.
Will it be kept? Hard to say. Thomas has done nothing to inspire confidence over his career. Of course, if Lawson can play 34 minutes and/or Ellington can handle the point well enough, it may not matter.
North Carolina State: Run Costner and McCauley through the wayback machine. Neither Brandon Costner nor Ben McCauley has played as well this season as in '07, and their drop-off has contributed to some of State's early struggles. They need to round back into last-season's form for the Pack to be the top flight team that many thought they would be. This is particularly true now that Farnold Degand is down for the season with a torn ACL.
Will it be kept? More likely for Costner than McCauley. Coach Lowe clearly views Big Ben as the odd man out in the post rotation with Costner and Hickson, and he may just be the kind of guy who is less effective when his playing time is limited.
Virginia: Find a rotation. Virginia has played 12 guys at least five minutes per game, and that doesn't include Solomon Tat or Tunji Soroye (a starter last year) who played their first minutes of the season against Hartford. While it's nice to have this many usable players, being able to settle into a predictable rotation is necessary for the team to develop consistency on the offensive end. Singletary, Diane, and Joseph are a good three to build around, but Leitao needs to figure out which of his other guys will actually be contributors come conference play.
Will it be kept? Starting to look like it. Mike Scott has earned himself a spot in the starting lineup (although Soroye's return may displace him) and both Calvin Baker and Jeff Jones will get consistent minutes. But I don't know if Leitao has sorted out who he wants from the group of Jamil Tucker, Will Harris, Tat, Soroye, Laurynas Mikalauskas, Ryan Pettinella, and Jerome Meyinsse, and there just aren't enough minutes to go around for Virginia to be playing all 7 on a regular basis.
Virginia Tech: Get help from the bench. No team lost as much as Virginia Tech between last season and this one, and the Hokie bench is thin. Backups Hank Thorns, Terrell Bell, Lewis Witcher, and JT Thompson do not contribute much - collectively just 13 points and 8 rebounds each game. This has left Deron Washington, Jeff Allen, and AD Vassallo with too big a burden to shoulder.
Will it be kept? There is some small hope. Dorenzo Hudson, not used at all in the first 9 games, has given the Hokies nearly 10 points a game over the last 3. But it's doubtful that any of the others will step up as big scorers.
Wake Forest: Stop shooting 3s. Wake is under 30% from beyond the arc, but devote nearly 38% of their shots to the 3. Their most accurate outside shooter is Ish Smith, and that is not a good sign. Particularly problematic have been James Johnson (who has had an otherwise fantastic freshman season thus far) and LD Williams, who are a combined 19 for 83.
Will it be kept? Probably not. The Deacons have some guys who love to shoot the long ball - Harvey Hale, Jamie Skeen, Williams, Johnson - and so the attempts are likely going to stay near the current average of 22.75/game. Wake can only hope that Skeen, Williams, and Hale all see their percentages rise to where they were last season.
This Writer: Work less, post more.
Will it be kept? Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?
Boston College: More shots for Corey Raji. The 6'5" freshman has been an extremely efficient scorer in his 20 min/g this year, shooting an astounding .742 efg% behind 70.8% from 2 and 57.1% from 3.
Will it be kept? No reason why not. Ty Rice and Rakim Sanders will still take a lot of shots, but there's not really any other option better than Raji. Raji's effectiveness will almost certainly go down some as the season wears on, but if it stays even close to this level, he'll be a very valuable offensive threat for the Eagles.
Clemson: Pretend the ACC opponents are not in the ACC. Over the last 3 years, Clemson is 37-3 in the non-conference season, but it hasn't translated into ACC success or a tournament bid. Clemson has again put itself in good position with a strong non-conference performance, but needs to follow through in conference play this year to get back into the NCAAs.
Will it be kept? Maybe. Clemson gets a big test early - 3 of the first 4 conference games are against UNC, NC St, and at Duke. The conference schedule is again not kind to the Tigers, and there's a greater than zero chance that if they struggle early, they may not be able to recover and get the 9-11 conference wins they can. But this Clemson team certainly has the talent to succeed and return to the tournament for the first time in years.
Duke: Take the damn ball! Duke's success on defense this year has been most strongly correlated to its ability to turn its opponents over. The only three games that Duke allowed about a point per possession are also the only three games that the opponent didn't cough the ball up more than 20% of the time. Duke's return to a more fast-breaking style of basketball has generally meant that these turnovers turn into easy offense for the Devils, so turning the opponent over has benefits for both the offense and the defense.
Will it be kept? Highly likely. The Devils have a disruptive perimeter defense and lots of ACC teams are not particularly adept at holding onto the ball.
Florida State: Get healthy. Ryan Reid, Casaan Breeden, and Julian Vaughn are all hurt, resulting in FSU starting former walk-on Matt Zitani against Georgia Tech. The Noles are down to seven players, 5 of whom are guards, and four of whom are 6'3" or smaller.
Will it be kept? I actually don't know - I can't find what the injury status of Reid, Breeden, and Vaughn are. But if they don't get them back, it's going to be a long season for FSU.
Georgia Tech: Play some defense. The Jackets have been very generous on the defensive end, giving up more than a point per possession in 8 of their 12 games, and letting opponents shoot extremely well from the floor.
Will it be kept? Not likely. None of the players are defensive stalwarts, and not having Dickey inside has really hurt. Tech appears to be in for some serious defensive struggles all season.
Maryland: Fix the offense. Maryland's offense has had serious problems so far this year. They're worst in the ACC in turnovers, second to last in shooting, and second to last in offensive efficiency. The defense has been solid, but the offensive inability is going to keep Maryland losing.
Will it be kept? Doubtful, although there is some precedent for it. Last year the offense came on like gangbusters at the end of the season after struggling early. Of course, last year they had DJ, Jones, and Ibekwe, who, as Rick Pitino would say, aren't walking through that door.
Miami: Keep hitting the glass. Miami's offensive success rests primarily on its ability to gather offensive boards. It gives them easy second chance opportunities, and also helps them get to the line, both of which they do as well as anyone in the conference.
Will it be kept? Absolutely - it was their one offensive strength last year and with the return of Anthony King this year in addition to Graham and Collins, they have three frontcourt studs to vacuum up the offensive boards.
North Carolina: Teach QT to hold onto the ball. With Bobby Frasor hurt, Thomas is the only true point guard the Heels have to back up Ty Lawson. Thomas has been extremely turnover prone in his 4 seasons with the Heels. If they can't rely on him to take care of the ball, it'll be hard for the Heels to sit Lawson down for any meaningful periods of time, and given his frenetic pace of play, he could get gassed late with too many minutes.
Will it be kept? Hard to say. Thomas has done nothing to inspire confidence over his career. Of course, if Lawson can play 34 minutes and/or Ellington can handle the point well enough, it may not matter.
North Carolina State: Run Costner and McCauley through the wayback machine. Neither Brandon Costner nor Ben McCauley has played as well this season as in '07, and their drop-off has contributed to some of State's early struggles. They need to round back into last-season's form for the Pack to be the top flight team that many thought they would be. This is particularly true now that Farnold Degand is down for the season with a torn ACL.
Will it be kept? More likely for Costner than McCauley. Coach Lowe clearly views Big Ben as the odd man out in the post rotation with Costner and Hickson, and he may just be the kind of guy who is less effective when his playing time is limited.
Virginia: Find a rotation. Virginia has played 12 guys at least five minutes per game, and that doesn't include Solomon Tat or Tunji Soroye (a starter last year) who played their first minutes of the season against Hartford. While it's nice to have this many usable players, being able to settle into a predictable rotation is necessary for the team to develop consistency on the offensive end. Singletary, Diane, and Joseph are a good three to build around, but Leitao needs to figure out which of his other guys will actually be contributors come conference play.
Will it be kept? Starting to look like it. Mike Scott has earned himself a spot in the starting lineup (although Soroye's return may displace him) and both Calvin Baker and Jeff Jones will get consistent minutes. But I don't know if Leitao has sorted out who he wants from the group of Jamil Tucker, Will Harris, Tat, Soroye, Laurynas Mikalauskas, Ryan Pettinella, and Jerome Meyinsse, and there just aren't enough minutes to go around for Virginia to be playing all 7 on a regular basis.
Virginia Tech: Get help from the bench. No team lost as much as Virginia Tech between last season and this one, and the Hokie bench is thin. Backups Hank Thorns, Terrell Bell, Lewis Witcher, and JT Thompson do not contribute much - collectively just 13 points and 8 rebounds each game. This has left Deron Washington, Jeff Allen, and AD Vassallo with too big a burden to shoulder.
Will it be kept? There is some small hope. Dorenzo Hudson, not used at all in the first 9 games, has given the Hokies nearly 10 points a game over the last 3. But it's doubtful that any of the others will step up as big scorers.
Wake Forest: Stop shooting 3s. Wake is under 30% from beyond the arc, but devote nearly 38% of their shots to the 3. Their most accurate outside shooter is Ish Smith, and that is not a good sign. Particularly problematic have been James Johnson (who has had an otherwise fantastic freshman season thus far) and LD Williams, who are a combined 19 for 83.
Will it be kept? Probably not. The Deacons have some guys who love to shoot the long ball - Harvey Hale, Jamie Skeen, Williams, Johnson - and so the attempts are likely going to stay near the current average of 22.75/game. Wake can only hope that Skeen, Williams, and Hale all see their percentages rise to where they were last season.
This Writer: Work less, post more.
Will it be kept? Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Quick Update
Sorry for the lack of communication, but I've been having internet issues at home, and been working 12-14 hours a day for the past week, so I've lacked both the time and the ability to get things updated. I'm hopeful that both of these situations will be resolved soon (although I'm much more optimistic about the internet) and that I'll get back to posting on a semi-regular basis. ACC conference play team previews are coming soon.
For tonight, you can read my thoughts on Pitt a couple posts down. In short, Fields will be tough to contain, Blair is a load down low, and they play disciplined offense. Their defense is not up to Pitt teams of old, particularly around the perimeter, and their guards can be a little on the small side, so Duke should have a perimeter size advantage (or at least height advantage, particularly if you don't give Ronald Ramon height credit for his 'fro). I'm hopeful that we can bring home another win tonight in Cameron North.
For tonight, you can read my thoughts on Pitt a couple posts down. In short, Fields will be tough to contain, Blair is a load down low, and they play disciplined offense. Their defense is not up to Pitt teams of old, particularly around the perimeter, and their guards can be a little on the small side, so Duke should have a perimeter size advantage (or at least height advantage, particularly if you don't give Ronald Ramon height credit for his 'fro). I'm hopeful that we can bring home another win tonight in Cameron North.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
ACC Weekend Update
After the long, dark teatime of the soul that is finals week, a handful of ACC schools swing back into action this weekend. Let's take a look at the matchups:
NCSU v. SCSU:
It's a matchup of the red-headed stepchildren of the state university systems in the Carolinas (well, sort of). The Pack is coming off back to back losses and the story everywhere is what in the h-e-double hockey sticks happened to Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley. Last year McCauley had a 1.20 PPWS and a .584 EFG, and dished the ball as well, to the tune of a 20.29 A/B%. Costner shot 53.7% from 2 and 37.9% from 3 on his way to putting in 27.5% of the Pack's points. This year, McCauley's minutes have fallen from 2nd to 6th on the team, and he's at just 0.88, .400, and 14.11 in the stats mentioned above. Costner's shooting has been terrible - 33.3% from 2 and 26.9% from 3, and his turnover percentage is very high at 7.35%. I find it hard to believe that JJ Hickson could mess both of these guys up this much, and still believe that they'll get it all sorted out in the end. Perhaps playing a patsy like SC St will help (although I would have been inclined to say the same thing about playing ECU last weekend).
FSU v. Butler:
A win here would give the 'Noles two impressive non-conference pluses (Florida, Butler) to counter their two ugly minuses (Cleveland St., South Florida). The hot shooting guards have led FSU both inside - Toney Douglas is 61,9% from 2 - and outside - Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich, and Ralph Mims are all at 39.4% or better from 3. Easy prediction for today's game - there will be lots of 3s. Butler takes over 50% of their shots from beyond the arc, and the Noles check in at 35.4%.
Sunday
UNC @ Rutgers:
Tennessee Tech, North Dakota State, NCCU, Dartmouth, Princeton, Lafayette, NJIT. That's the list of worldbeaters that Rutgers has collected its 7 wins against. My not-so bold prediction for the Scarlet Knights: they won't win seven more all season. Regardless, they certainly won't win on Sunday. If there's one thing the Heels know how to do, it's beat bad teams. This one's a pick-your-margin game.
Bucknell @ Wake Forest:
After running out to a 4-0 record with a win at Iowa, I thought Wake might be a little frisky in conference play this year. Even the losses to Charlotte and Vanderbilt were very close (and on the road). Then they got dismantled by Georgia, and suddenly they looked very much like a 12-win team overall. They still have a lot of the same problems as last year, only without Kyle Visser to help out. Ish Smith still can't shoot - he's at a you-can't-be-serious 17.6% from the line - but neither can the rest of the team. They have the worst team shooting in the conference, and it's dragged them down to an ugly 95.4 offensive efficiency, which checks in at 216th in the country and last in the ACC. Bucknell still has some name cache from their tournament years, but this year's Bison are not the same team, losing to Wagner, Marist, and St. Francis (PA). Deac fans - savor this win. You won't see too many come ACC play.
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion:
The Hokies have simply annihilated their last two opponents on the defensive end. UNCG put up just 39 points for a 65.49 ORating. GW was even worse, scoring just 36 points on its way to a mind-boggling 56.29 ORating. The Hokies work against GW is likely to be the best single game defensive performance (at least statistically) by an ACC team this year. VT has seen upper class leadership from Washington and Vassallo, stud play from freshman Jeff Allen, and a very capable point guard rotation between Hank Thorns and Malcolm Delaney, who collectively average over 7 assists a game. ODU has run hot and cold on offense, struggling against Clemson, Louisville, and Georgetown, but torching UNC (in a losing cause) and lesser opponents like Iona, Georgia State, and UMES. If they run cold against Virginia Tech, look for the Hokies to win another ugly, low-scoring affair.
NCSU v. SCSU:
It's a matchup of the red-headed stepchildren of the state university systems in the Carolinas (well, sort of). The Pack is coming off back to back losses and the story everywhere is what in the h-e-double hockey sticks happened to Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley. Last year McCauley had a 1.20 PPWS and a .584 EFG, and dished the ball as well, to the tune of a 20.29 A/B%. Costner shot 53.7% from 2 and 37.9% from 3 on his way to putting in 27.5% of the Pack's points. This year, McCauley's minutes have fallen from 2nd to 6th on the team, and he's at just 0.88, .400, and 14.11 in the stats mentioned above. Costner's shooting has been terrible - 33.3% from 2 and 26.9% from 3, and his turnover percentage is very high at 7.35%. I find it hard to believe that JJ Hickson could mess both of these guys up this much, and still believe that they'll get it all sorted out in the end. Perhaps playing a patsy like SC St will help (although I would have been inclined to say the same thing about playing ECU last weekend).
FSU v. Butler:
A win here would give the 'Noles two impressive non-conference pluses (Florida, Butler) to counter their two ugly minuses (Cleveland St., South Florida). The hot shooting guards have led FSU both inside - Toney Douglas is 61,9% from 2 - and outside - Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich, and Ralph Mims are all at 39.4% or better from 3. Easy prediction for today's game - there will be lots of 3s. Butler takes over 50% of their shots from beyond the arc, and the Noles check in at 35.4%.
Sunday
UNC @ Rutgers:
Tennessee Tech, North Dakota State, NCCU, Dartmouth, Princeton, Lafayette, NJIT. That's the list of worldbeaters that Rutgers has collected its 7 wins against. My not-so bold prediction for the Scarlet Knights: they won't win seven more all season. Regardless, they certainly won't win on Sunday. If there's one thing the Heels know how to do, it's beat bad teams. This one's a pick-your-margin game.
Bucknell @ Wake Forest:
After running out to a 4-0 record with a win at Iowa, I thought Wake might be a little frisky in conference play this year. Even the losses to Charlotte and Vanderbilt were very close (and on the road). Then they got dismantled by Georgia, and suddenly they looked very much like a 12-win team overall. They still have a lot of the same problems as last year, only without Kyle Visser to help out. Ish Smith still can't shoot - he's at a you-can't-be-serious 17.6% from the line - but neither can the rest of the team. They have the worst team shooting in the conference, and it's dragged them down to an ugly 95.4 offensive efficiency, which checks in at 216th in the country and last in the ACC. Bucknell still has some name cache from their tournament years, but this year's Bison are not the same team, losing to Wagner, Marist, and St. Francis (PA). Deac fans - savor this win. You won't see too many come ACC play.
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion:
The Hokies have simply annihilated their last two opponents on the defensive end. UNCG put up just 39 points for a 65.49 ORating. GW was even worse, scoring just 36 points on its way to a mind-boggling 56.29 ORating. The Hokies work against GW is likely to be the best single game defensive performance (at least statistically) by an ACC team this year. VT has seen upper class leadership from Washington and Vassallo, stud play from freshman Jeff Allen, and a very capable point guard rotation between Hank Thorns and Malcolm Delaney, who collectively average over 7 assists a game. ODU has run hot and cold on offense, struggling against Clemson, Louisville, and Georgetown, but torching UNC (in a losing cause) and lesser opponents like Iona, Georgia State, and UMES. If they run cold against Virginia Tech, look for the Hokies to win another ugly, low-scoring affair.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)