Friday, March 02, 2007

Rain of 3s

Apparently there was a little bit of a malfunction with the XoS live stats for the Maryland game, which means that while I do have the play-by-play, I have no idea who subbed in when. So unfortunately, that means no on-the-floor Duke stats for that game either. Hopefully the problem will be fixed before the UNC game, but I'll track the subs myself just in case.

As for the Maryland game, it was quite the offensive explosion by both teams. Duke played its single worst defensive game of the season, allowing 1.16 points per possession (prior worst was Marquette, at 1.12 - prior worst in conference was FSU, at 1.065). Maryland got transition opportunity after transition opportunity, and also got some wide open looks at the 3pt line, on their way to a .579 EFG%. They also moved the ball very well, picking up assists on over 75% of their made hoops. Duke's offense played well (best game w/r/t turnovers in conference play), but just gave up too many points on missed layups inside. Credit Maryland's interior D for getting in the heads of the Devils.


Thursday's games were all about 3-pointers - the two winning teams hit 20 of 38, the two losing teams hit just 5 of 29. Virginia had a particularly unusual shooting line - 14 of 39 (ugh!) from 2, and 10 of 16 (wow!) from 3. The Cavs get more points off 3s than any team in the conference, and it's propelled them to 1st place (well, that and a schedule softer than Floam). All they need to do is close out Wake on the road and they'll have first place all to their lonesome. The Hokies hold a tiebreaker over UNC alone, and both UNC and BC together, but not over BC (I think). They'll be playing host to a Clemson team that has its tournament life on the line - if they don't throw everything and the kitchen sink into this game, the Tigers really don't deserve to make the NCAAs.

Thaddeus Young and Anthony Morrow propelled Tech past UNC with outside shooting, and the Jackets absolutely hammered the Heels on the glass (2nd bad rebounding game in a row for UNC) on their way to a huge win. Carolina forced a lot of (careless, sloppy) turnovers, and had a mammoth advantage at the free throw line (would have been bigger but for end-of-game fouling) but couldn't parlay those easy opportunities into a win. For the second time this season, Duke-UNC will occur with both teams coming off a loss. This time, it's Duke's chance to give the Heels 3 in a row. Georgia Tech is a win against BC away from punching their ticket (and I think Tech has a good chance at being favored in this game). By the way, I think the Jackets would hold the tiebreaker over Duke at 8-8 - there's a chance the Devils could finish in the second division.

Clemson eked (or was it eeeeek!ed) by Miami 74-70 in overtime to keep a glimmer of hope alive. A win at VT and in the 1st round of the ACC tourney (likely against FSU) would put them at 22-10. I know they've lost a lot of late, but 22-10! That should be enough.

State handled Wake 73-66, despite getting absolutely hammered on the offensive glass (9 for Jamie Skeen alone) and hitting only 4 of 17 threes. Coach Lowe juggled the lineup a bit and started Bryan Nieman and Justin Clark for Fells and Costner, and it seemed to work out OK. Ben McCauley got back on the horse after a stretch of tough games, scoring 17 on 7-11 shooting and tossing in 7 boards to boot. NCSU has now safely kept itself out of 12th place.

Using Pomeroy's prediction numbers (dangerous in a conference that's been so unpredictable, especially of late), here's what the seeds would be in the ACC Tourney:

1. Virginia
2. Virginia Tech (wins tiebreaker w/UNC by virtue of sweeping UNC)
3. North Carolina
4. Boston College
5. Maryland
6. Georgia Tech (wins tiebreaker w/ Duke by virtue of beating UNC)
7. Duke
8. Florida State
9. Clemson
10. NC State
11. Wake Forest (wins tiebreaker w/ Miami by virtue of sweeping Miami)
12. Miami

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You and your team and university not only are mediocre. You are a bunch of classless. Thugs. Have fun on Thursday, jerk.