Maryland Preview

The last Duke-Maryland game was the jumpstart of the Terps' recent surge. Over the last 5 games, they've gone from 3-6 and wallowing to 8-6 and looking strong. The Terps have done it primarily by turning their offense around - they have a .534 EFG% in the last 5 games, and haven't posted a sub-100 O Rating. The team A/TO ratio is a very, very good 1.43, and even the offensive rebounding has been slightly improved (although most of that came against UNC on Sunday). As I mentioned before, Strawberry has been key to this resurgence - he's finally started to play like pre-conference DJ, who was very good. The continued emergence of Greivis Vasquez has also been instrumental - 66 points and 33 assists over the past 5 games. If this mercurial offense keeps performing at its recent rate, the Terps are tough to beat, since Maryland's defense has been good all season - no non-conference opponent scored a point per possession against them, and only six have done so in an offense-minded ACC.

Duke lost the last game in the first half, and though mounted a valiant comeback effort, never could string together stops to really take momentum away. For Duke's offense, the Maryland game was the second-worst in terms of efficiency, and worst in terms of shooting (both in EFG% and PPWS). Since the Maryland game, Duke's offense has really been clicking - .579 EFG% and a 110.69 O Rating over the last four games. This game is essentially for 5th place in the conference (or at least the inside track) - Duke could get fourth if they win out and BC loses to GT, and Maryland could if they win out and UNC loses out, but the likelihood is that the winner of tomorrow's game will be 5th in conference.

On defense, Maryland does 3 things very well - they defend the perimeter (conference leaders in opponent 3pt%), they deny passing opportunities (conference leaders in opponent assist rate), and they block shots (2nd in block%). They're only average at interior defense and forcing turnovers, and they're awful on the defensive boards (last in conference). In the first game, these trends basically played out - Duke shot 28.6% from 3, recorded assists on just 36% of their hoops, but pulled in 36.11% of their own misses and hit nearly 50% from two. The only inconsistencies were turnovers (much better than usual for the Terps) and blocks (much worse than usual, at only 5%). Duke also tossed in sub-50% free throw shooting. The most likely area for improvement is 3pt shooting - Duke has put more focus beyond the arc in recent games, and has found big success - 30 for 66, or 45.5%. Duke also needs to work harder to pressure Maryland with ball movement. As noted, the Terps are not particularly vulnerable to the assist, but the Devils have shown much improved passing in the last two weeks, recording assists on 58.5% of their hoops. For the Devils, three point shooting and ball movement are intimately related, and their outside shooting will only be as good as the number of open opportunities (which will only be as numerous as ball movement can get them). Cameron should be rocking for the last home game of the season - if the crowd can rattle freshmen point guards Vazquez and Eric Hayes, Duke may be able to jump out to an early margin. Ultimately, this is likely to be a last-minute kind of game - both Duke and Maryland are playing well, and both desperately want to win this game. Should be one heck of a matchup.

Wednesday Look-Ahead

There's as much volatility in the ACC standings heading into the last week of the season as I can remember in a while. The Virginia schools can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th, and UNC and BC can finish anywhere from 1st to 5th. Both Duke and Maryland can finish anywhere between 4th and 7th. FSU, Georgia Tech, and Clemson can all finish as high as 7th (6th for Georgia Tech) and as low as 11th. Needless to say, there's lots of jostling and positioning to be done heading into the ACC Tourney.

Wednesday's games have one major matchup (Duke-Maryland, to be previewed in depth later tonight), one absolute must-win can't-lose tourney-lifeline game (Clemson-Miami) and one game with NIT implications, at best (NCSU-Wake Forest).

NC State beat Wake by 14 earlier this year without Engin Atsur. Every single player for State shot 50% or better except Trevor Ferguson (0-1) on their way to a team .688 EFG% that has to be one of the better performances of the year in the conference. The entire game wasn't a model of field goal defense, as Wake also shot well (.596 EFG%), but they shot themselves in the foot with a 22 turnover performance that was truly a team effort - 10 Deacons had at least one TO. Wake is only 1-6 away from Joel Coliseum this season (a 1-point win over Miami), and should fall to 1-7 after tonight. The Pack can lock up NIT eligibility with a win (and presumably they'd be rewarded with a bid - I can't recall an NIT-eligible ACC team ever not being offered a spot).

Clemson gets a (much-needed) break of sorts playing host to Miami. Of course, UVA managed to lose a game to Miami just last week, and Clemson dropped a contest at Wake the week before, so who knows whether this will really be a break. At the very least, the Tiger offense will be facing one of the worst defenses in recent ACC memory (in several defensive categories, Miami is two full standard deviations worse than the mean). And by the way, whatever happened to James Mays? Spoken of very highly after his preseason performance, Mays has put on a human disappearing act, falling out of the starting lineup and apparently out of favor with Coach Purnell - he played just 15 minutes in the loss to BC.

BLOG LOOK-AHEAD

In the coming weeks, look for the following features:

• Strength of Schedule analysis (here's a preview - Duke's was hardest (by far), Virginia's easiest (by farther)).
• Deviants - recognition for team performances that deviated most from the mean
• OMAC's - One-Man's All-Conference selections
• Performance Reviews - Each team's best and worst performances in the conference season, along with the best performances by any team in conference play
• Was it Worth It? - comparison of the "real" Duke tempo-free stats I've been keeping against the "traditional" tempo-free (minus now the St. John's, Air Force, and Gonzaga games).

Duke 67, St. John's 50

Defense doesn't get a lot better than 10 points in a first half. St. John's shot 13.6% and turned the ball over 11 times in 31 possessions, staking Duke to a lead that was basically insurmountable. The offense also looked good in the early going, with lots of points in transitition and good passing - McRoberts to Nelson (if you watch the replays closely, you see Nelson catch his eye, briefly point up for the pass, and then take off for the leap a good two steps before Josh throws it) and Paulus to McClure to McRoberts for example. Things were bound to equalize a little bit in the second half, but Duke still played solid basketball throughout. One thing to note - Duke has been outscored by 46 points in the second half in February. Paulus had a nice offensive game, with 19 points, including 5 of 7 three point shooting. McRoberts played some terrific post defense, picking up 6 blocks and altering at least another half dozen. And finally, while Duke's free throw shooting has been criticized a bit, they closed out the game 17 of 19 (after the 4-10 start).

I haven't been able to run the per possession stats for Duke, because there's no play-by-play on the GoDuke website and the CBS and ESPN ones don't square with the box score. Hopefully this will be remedied by tomorrow. All the ACC stats are updated through this weekend's games.

AROUND THE ACC

Virginia pulls out a close one against Georgia Tech after laying a huge egg against Miami. The Singletary/Reynolds show finishes the season hosting Virginia Tech and at Wake Forest (who has been frisky at home). As a side note, I 've been working on schedule strength numbers for the ACC, and Virginia's is remarkably easy - in the neighborhood of two and a quarter standard deviations easier than what would be an average schedule. Georgia Tech is firmly fixed on the bubble, and can take themselves off of it if they hold home court in two tough games this week (against UNC and BC).

Maryland picked up a huge win against UNC tonight. This team has all the makings of a big tournament run - senior leadership, strong post play, strong guard play, and peaking at the right time. Since almost singlehandedly contributing to Maryland's poor conference start, DJ Strawberry is 37 of 61 with 10 assists, 3 turnovers, and 24 rebounds during Maryland's 5 game winning streak. Maryland finishes at Duke and home against NC State. For Carolina, rebounding and free throws killed them. UNC got killed on the glass - Maryland was about 2/3 on defense and close to 50% on offense. They also shot under 50% from the line, including a killer 0-4 from Brandan Wright. Carolina finishes at Georgia Tech and home against Duke.

BC beat Clemson in an ugly, ugly basketball game. Dudley was fantastic with 23 and 11, and Tyrelle Blair was a defensive force with 6 big blocks. By the way, Blair's block rate is best in the ACC, and just shy of what Sean Williams was putting up (actually better than what Williams had done in conference play). BC's only remaining game is at Georgia Tech. The wheels have officially come off at Clemson, as they put up just 54 points in 64 possessions. They shot barely better than 33% on the game, against a BC defense that has been less than stingy this year. They get what should be a win against Miami this week, and then finish at Virginia Tech with their tournament life on the line.

FSU cruised to a win over NC State behind 10 of 20 three point shooting and stingy defense. They finish on the road against Miami to try to get to 7-9 in conference and needing a win in the tourney to hit 20 on the season. They'll be able to make a very compelling case on the absence of Toney Douglas, if, as expected, he'll be back for the NCAAs - 3 of their 4 losses without him were by a combined 10 points.

Virginia Tech pulled away from Miami in the second half. The starting lineup for Tech had big games all around. They finish the season with a rivalry game at UVA (the game in Blacksburg was a 27 point Hokie romp) and home against Clemson. They're playing for seeding (both conference and NCAA tourney) at this point.

Duke 71, Clemson 66

Tonight's game looked eerily similar to the last Clemson game, only the halves were even more dramatically different. Duke put up 41 points in 31 possessions in the first half, despite lots of foul trouble, by shooting lights out and not turning the ball over. They held Clemson to 6 of 23 from the field, and looked completely in control. Then Clemson came out like a team possessed in the second half. They shot 67% from 2 on their way to scoring 45 points in 36 possessions. Duke's shooting didn't really desert them, but they turned the ball over 11 times in 35 possessions, including 7 of the last 17 (aiee!). Actually, those last 17 possessions were remarkable for Duke. At times, they looked downright awful (seven turnovers). But when they held onto the ball, the execution was near perfect - 2o points in the 10 non-turnover possessions (though, admittedly, at least 4 of these possessions were end-game foul situations).

The up-and-down nature of this game is reflected in the chart below. Notice that the best player in the game for Duke (Scheyer) put up a -4 while he was on the court, and two guys who didn't take a single shot (Pocius and Zoubek) put up a +8 and a +12, respectively (in case you're scoring at home, that's Duke 37, Georgia Tech/Clemson 12 in the last two games with Marty on the court). Scheyer had a great shooting performance - it's rare when guys take more than a couple shots and have an EFG% over 1, but Jon pulled it off with a 1.083. Paulus had an up-and-down game himself - his outside shooting was great, and he dished out 6 assists, but he almost pulled off the dreaded points-turnovers double-double. With this win, I think it's safe to mark Duke as a lock for the tourney. Even if they lose out (not very likely), they'll be 21-11, 8-8 in the ACC, and owners of one of the better computer profiles among similar teams.

Player		O Poss.	Points	OPPP	D Poss.	Points	DPPP
McRoberts	ON	61	67	1.098	59	60	1.017
	OFF	5	4	0.800	8	6	0.750
Scheyer	ON	48	44	0.917	47	48	1.021
	OFF	18	27	1.500	20	18	0.900
Nelson	ON	59	69	1.169	59	60	1.017
	OFF	7	2	0.286	8	6	0.750
Paulus	ON	63	70	1.111	63	60	0.952
	OFF	3	1	0.333	4	6	1.500
Henderson	ON	25	23	0.920	28	28	1.000
	OFF	41	48	1.171	39	38	0.974
McClure	ON	35	35	1.000	35	37	1.057
	OFF	31	36	1.161	32	29	0.906
Thomas	ON	23	18	0.783	27	28	1.037
	OFF	43	53	1.233	40	38	0.950
Zoubek	ON	8	15	1.875	7	3	0.429
	OFF	58	56	0.966	60	63	1.050
Pocius	ON	8	14	1.750	10	6	0.600
	OFF	58	57	0.983	57	60	1.053
Duke Overall		66	71	1.076	67	66	0.985

Clemson Look-Ahead

Since starting off the season as hot as anyone in the country and being the last of the 336 Division I teams to suffer a loss, the Tigers have gotten into a losing habit, dropping 7 of 9 and seeming in real danger of missing the NCAAs. The biggest problem for Clemson is that their shooting, which had propelled them through their early run, has disappeared. Clemson is now last in the conference in 3 point shooting, next-to-last in PPWS, and toward the bottom in EFG%. KC Rivers is emblematic of the team as a whole - he started off the year knocking down next to everything, but has hit only 5 of his last 33 from beyond the arc.

Clemson's crowd will likely be hostile tonight, and I'm sure we'll all hear more than we want to about the clock "controversy" at the end of last game. What will be forgotten is that Duke outplayed Clemson for the bulk of the time, and only a couple of freak mind-freezes by McRoberts kept the game as close as it was. The Devils handled the Tiger press for the majority of the game, and scored efficiently on the inside. Duke needs to be patient against the press tonight and not feed the Clemson turnover machine, which still turns opponents over more than once every four possessions.

Duke 71, Georgia Tech, 62

Duke has had Georgia Tech's number this year when it comes to forcing turnovers, and Sunday it was enough to produce a win for the Devils. The Jackets have a remarkable 50 turnovers in 143.7 possessions against Duke, and coughed the ball up 16 times in 34 first half possessions Sunday - almost every other possession was a Georgia Tech turnover. 5 Blue Devils had multiple steals, led by Scheyer with 5. Duke also shot well from the field (particularly from 3, hitting 45%), and they were able to overcome poor free throw shooting (a plague throughout conference play) and the worst defensive rebounding performance of the year. Duke's rebounding woes were notable in this game because the Jackets went the last 8:15 or so of the first half with zero team rebounds. In the other 32 minutes, they thoroughly worked Duke for second chance points.

Sunday's game was a tribute to the bench, which played valuable minutes and made solid contributions - 15 points on 5 of 7 shooting (including 2-2 from 3) among them. Most notably, the team went on their big runs with bench guys on the court, as shown in the chart below.

Player		O Poss.	Points	OPPP	D Poss.	Points	DPPP
McRoberts	ON	53	51	0.962	53	50	0.943
	OFF	15	20	1.333	14	12	0.857
Scheyer	ON	57	57	1.000	58	60	1.034
	OFF	11	14	1.273	9	2	0.222
Nelson	ON	53	56	1.057	53	50	0.943
	OFF	15	15	1.000	14	12	0.857
Paulus	ON	62	63	1.016	62	57	0.919
	OFF	6	8	1.333	5	5	1.000
Henderson	ON	18	18	1.000	18	15	0.833
	OFF	50	53	1.060	49	47	0.959
McClure	ON	46	47	1.022	46	46	1.000
	OFF	22	24	1.091	21	16	0.762
Thomas	ON	27	31	1.148	26	18	0.692
	OFF	41	40	0.976	41	44	1.073
Zoubek	ON	10	13	1.300	11	10	0.909
	OFF	58	58	1.000	56	52	0.929
Pocius	ON	16	23	1.438	14	6	0.429
	OFF	52	48	0.923	53	56	1.057
Duke Overall		68	71	1.044	67	62	0.925

For those of you wondering about Pocius' numbers, no, that's not a misprint and yes, I triple-checked it. He was on the court for four separate stretches - 4-2 over 3 possessions, 8-2 over 6 offensive and 5 defensive possessions, 5-2 over three possessions to end the half, and 6-0 in 4 offensive and 3 defensive possessions after Tech's run to start the second half. I don't care if it is a statistical anomaly and too small of a sample size to be really meaningful (and it's definitely both), it's still a shocking disparity. He played well in the first half and earned his second half minutes. Thomas continues to make defensive impacts - the team was +13 with him on court, and held Tech to just 18 points in 26 Thomas-filled possessions. The bench as a whole was indispensable to the victory yesterday, and deserves the game ball as a unit.

AROUND THE ACC

Speaking of teams matching up well with each other, VT has serious issues with NC State. In two games, the Wolfpack has shot 42 of 64 from 2 and 16 of 33 from 3 while holding Tech to 41 of 94 and 5 of 18 from the same. That's right, the Hokies have taken 30 more two point field goals and still not made as many as the 'Pack has against it.

Maryland looks like it did in preseason again, thanks to the continued presence of Gist as a star, the continued emergence of Vazquez as an ACC point guard (11 assists against Clemson), and DJ Strawberry hitting shots like a normal human being again. After a dreadful start, DJ's efg% is .600 over the last 4 games, and he's also dished out 9 assists and picked up 7 steals over that timespan. For Clemson, the wheels are in danger of coming off (look for more tomorrow).

Carolina bounced back at BC thanks to Dudley's three clanks from the line in crunch time. This shouldn't cost him ACC POY, but his performances against both Duke and UNC this week left a little (ok, a lot) to be desired. Brandan Wright, a game time decision, continued his run of hot scoring with 13 on 6 of 7 shooting in 30 minutes of play.

UVA beat Florida State in a game that never should have been this close. For a good team with great guards, the Cavaliers play inexcusably sloppy basketball, and take as many stupid shots as any team in major conference hoops. Thornton was a one man possession machine for FSU - he scored 30 points, took 23 shots, and pulled in 16 rebounds - but it looks like without Douglas, they'll fall just short of the NCAA promised land.

Finally, Wake and Miami played. Apparently. Wake used hot shooting to overcome bad defensive rebounding and a 2:1 turnover disadvantage. Miami's distinction as by far the worst defensive team in conference continues to be well-earned.

Brief Catchup

I've been out of town since early Friday and haven't been able to update the site. Will have all the stats updated tonight, as well as a wrap-up of Duke-Georgia Tech (good win over a difficult opponent to match up with) and the weekend that was in the ACC, and a look ahead to a busy ACC Wednesday (5 conference games).

Season Sweep, Part Deux

Much needed win for the Blue Devils, and an impressive win at that, going into Conte Forum and largely dismantling the (current) 1st place team in the conference. Some teams you match up well with, and some you don't, and BC is a team that Duke matches up very well with. One reason is that BC plays cover-your-eyes bad team defense. On the few occasions an Eagle defender actually rotated to give help, no one else came in to shut off the weakside. The result was a layup drill on offense for the Devils. Duke also abused BC on the offensive and defensive glass, picking up 13 of 30 misses on offense and holding BC - the best offensive rebounding team in the league - to a season-low 5. Duke also shot well, which made their offensive rebounding even more dangerous - when you hit 33 of 59 and get back 13 of your misses, it'll be a long night for the opposition. The defense on Dudley was excellent as well - he was held to 11 points, taking only 5 FGAs and 5 FTAs, and turned it over 4 times. McRoberts had a particularly nice game inside, netting a double-double and shooting 9 of 12 from 2, but it was an all around effort, on offense and defense, that won the game for Duke. Truly a team win last night. Here's the PPP table:

Player		O Poss.	Points	OPPP	D Poss.	Points	DPPP
McRoberts	ON	66	78	1.182	66	68	1.030
	OFF	1	0	0.000	1	2	2.000
Scheyer	ON	60	67	1.117	60	62	1.033
	OFF	7	11	1.571	7	8	1.143
Nelson	ON	53	57	1.075	52	57	1.096
	OFF	14	21	1.500	15	13	0.867
Paulus	ON	64	78	1.219	64	63	0.984
	OFF	3	0	0.000	4	7	1.750
Henderson	ON	24	31	1.292	25	23	0.920
	OFF	43	47	1.093	42	47	1.119
McClure	ON	41	51	1.244	43	54	1.256
	OFF	26	27	1.038	24	16	0.667
Thomas	ON	22	23	1.045	20	14	0.700
	OFF	45	55	1.222	47	56	1.191
Zoubek	ON	1	0	0.000	1	2	2.000
	OFF	66	78	1.182	66	68	1.030
Pocius	ON	4	5	1.250	4	7	1.750
	OFF	63	73	1.159	63	63	1.000
Duke Overall		67	78	1.164	67	70	1.045

A brief word about Duke's stall ball tactics, which infuriated a large portion of the Blue Devil fandom last night as BC started their comeback. From the point Duke was up 65-41, BC had 21 more offensive possessions in the game. That means the Eagles had to throw up a 114.29 ORating in those 21 possessions just to tie Duke if Duke scored no points the rest of the way. The odds of BC putting up a 114.29 are not great, but not miniscule either - it's about the season average for their offense, though well above their season-to-date performance against Duke. The odds of Duke going 0-for-21 possessions is well nigh impossible, even for this year's less offensively adept team. As it was, BC got hot, and scored 29 in those 21 possessions, for a 138.10 ORating. That's about as well as a team can plausibly play for a 21 possession stretch against a good defense. Even with that, all Duke needed was 6 in 21 possessions to win. Duke's offense in the slowdown was inefficient - 13 points in 20 possessions for a 65.00 ORating. But it was more than enough to win.

Stall ball looks ugly, but it works more often than not - far more often than not. Obviously, we remember the notable losses - UCONN in the Final Four, Kentucky in the regional final, Indiana in the Sweet 16, Maryland in the ACC final, etc. But Duke plays stall ball in every game where it gets a comfortable lead, and I don't need to remind you that Duke tends to win a lot of those games. Comebacks are more likely if the game is lengthened by short possessions, and less likely if the game is shortened by long possessions. I've watched plenty of teams blow leads that don't play stall ball, and in a lot of those games, teams get (rightly) criticized for taking stupid shots with 25-30 seconds left on the shot clock and not taking time off the clock.

Of course, there are negatives, particularly the way Duke plays it. One reason our offensive efficiency goes in the tubes is that it's just easier to play defense for 10 seconds than it is to play for 35. Duke doesn't play a slowdown offense that puts pressure on the opponent the whole 35, only the last 10. Illinois in 2005 ran the prettiest stall ball I've ever seen. They threw the ball all over the court - around the perimeter, inside, outside, drive-and-kick, etc. and ran lots of time off the clock. They were known for a high-powered offense, which was true - their efficiency was exceptional. But they did it playing "slower" than Duke this year - they just put pressure on an opponent for the whole shot clock. Of course, they had 3 excellent ball-handling guards and an adept passer in the post. Duke has the latter, but not the former. I'd love to see a stall ball system that pressures the defense more, but the risk there is turnovers (especially for this year's Devils), which tend to create easier scoring opportunities for the opponent.

Does stall ball work every time? No. Does it tend to let the opponent back into games? Yes, to a degree. Offensive execution is harder when you only make the defense play for 10 seconds, and defensive intensity can be difficult to maintain when you take the air out of the ball on the other end. Does it make sense? Absolutely. Some will say Duke went into it too early last night against BC. Considering time and score, it was about right. And oh by the way, the Devils won. And looked very impressive doing so.

AROUND THE ACC

Clemson just cannot get a break this year. Michael Drum nipped them at the buzzer, giving Wake its 3rd conference win and dropping the Tigers to 5-6. Clemson killed themselves with 5-of-26 shooting from 3, and have now hit just 26.3% of their threes in the last 5 games. Clemson has a should-be gimme against Miami at home left on the schedule, but the rest (Home to Maryland and Duke, At Virginia Tech and BC) are tough. I wrote in Clemson's preview that they would be a test-case for whether the committee pays attention to in-conference strength of schedule. Like Duke, Clemson had only 3 combined games against Miami, NC State, and Wake. Unlike Duke, they didn't sweep those 3, and last night's loss to Wake could prove costly. Random side question for the statistically minded: Has the last undefeated team missed the tournament in the 64 team era?

Maryland took care of business against NC State and heads into Sunday's matchup at Clemson with all the momentum. Winner of this game has an inside track to 8-8 and a bid. Loser could wind up at 7-9 and be on the outside looking in.

Season Sweep

Hokie Hi! Virginia Tech pulls off an improbable season sweep of UNC, as well as what must be an exceedingly rare pair of wins both in Cameron and the Dean Dome. Dowdell and Washington saved the day (and prevented Sailes' clank-clank from making him a goat) as VT snuck by UNC 81-80 in OT. The game was foul heavy, featuring lots and lots of free throws (an astonishing 37 attempts combined for Dowdell and Hansbrough) and 3 starters fouling out. It was also a position defense affair - very low turnover numbers (around 12-14%) for each teams, and also low shooting percentages). The biggest difference in the game was UNC's ice cold 3pt shooting, as the Heels hit only 3 of 17 from beyond the arc. Heck, that was really the only statistical difference - rebounding, turnovers, free throws, and overall shooting was for all intents and purposes identical between the teams. UNC's loss gives BC a full game cushion on first place, and also means that 8 teams are within 3 1/2 games of one another with 5 or 6 (or 4 in FSU's case) left to play. 12 of the 30 remaining conference games pit teams in that 8 team group against each other (and another 5 involve BC against a member of that 8 team group) - should make for a wild and wooly finish to conference play.

Florida State looks like they just might be in trouble without Toney Douglas. He was a reliable second scoring option that forced teams to at least think before relentlessly doubling Thornton, and no one for the Noles has been able to step up and fill his shoes. Javaris Crittenton is asking voters to glance a little southward before blindly filling in the name Brandan Wright for ACC freshman of the year. After a tough four game stretch where he averaged just 8 ppg, shooting 11 of 46 and turning the ball over 17 times, Crittenton has exploded over his last four - 22.3 ppg on 30 of 54 from the floor and a 1.32 A/TO ratio. He put the Jackets on his back tonight when Morrow and Young couldn't hit a thing. Once again, the Jackets cling to tournament hope just a bit longer.

Virginia pounded Longwood (side note - my former roommate's brother went to Longwood for a year, and he and his buddies made versions of the school-name-on-the-rear shorts that placed Longwood on the frontside instead of the backside - this site endorses such cleverly puerile (or puerilely clever) humor) behind excellent offensive rebounding (over 50% of misses) and very excellent shooting defense - Longwood hit barely 1 in 4 shots. Totally meaningless game except that it puts UVA one win closer to the magic number 20.

As for the Devils - Duke was (I believe) the only team in the ACC this year to face each opponent once before a single rematch. Rematch number 1 happens tomorrow night in Chestnut Hill. Duke's last win came against these Eagles, a 75-61 performance in which the Devils thoroughly controlled BC on the inside - 15 offensive rebounds on 27 misses, .542 2pt% against .381 2p% for BC, and 8 blocked shots. The Devils kept Dudley from controlling the game - he still got his (17 and 8), but Shamari Spears ended up taking 3 more shots. Mark it down - if Spears out-attempts Dudley again tomorrow, Duke wins. Scheyer did an excellent job defending Marshall (he shot just 2 of 11), and will be called on to do the same tomorrow. BC's ORating in non-Duke games: 115.23. In the 3 conference games (all wins) since the Duke loss: 121.46. Against Duke: 96.98. If the Devils keep BC south of 105, they should be able to win, because BC's defense has not been so hot (even with the emergence of Tyrelle Blair as Sean Williams Jr.). This should be a slooow game - the last one was 63 possessions, and BC's last 3 conference games have all been right at 61, so it should be close throughout. Not worth highlighting this as a must win - the Devils have to treat them all as must-wins from here on out.

4 In a Row

For the first time this season (heck, first time in a long time), Duke simply got thumped. From the offensive futility early (4 points and 7!!! turnovers in one 14 possession stretch) to the utter inability to get necessary stops in the second half, Duke looked rough throughout. One interesting stat - until the last minute of the game, Maryland scored during every Duke lineup. The Devils never made it from one substitution to the next without giving up points to the Terps.

I don't have much to say about yesterday's game. It was a big step back for everyone except Josh, who had an excellent offensive day (even if a lot of it came against Osby and Bowers, not Ibekwe and Gist). Duke can't linger on this one, as they'll need to be ready for a BC team looking to exact revenge and continue their hold on first place.

Here's the table from the Maryland game. All stats and leaderboards are updated.

Player		O Poss.	Points	OPPP	D Poss.	Points	DPPP
McRoberts	ON	65	54	0.831	66	68	1.030
	OFF	5	6	1.200	4	4	1.000
Scheyer	ON	62	54	0.871	64	62	0.969
	OFF	8	6	0.750	6	10	1.667
Nelson	ON	34	30	0.882	34	39	1.147
	OFF	36	30	0.833	36	33	0.917
Paulus	ON	69	60	0.870	70	72	1.029
	OFF	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000
Henderson	ON	26	21	0.808	22	27	1.227
	OFF	44	39	0.886	48	45	0.938
McClure	ON	40	33	0.825	42	36	0.857
	OFF	30	27	0.900	28	36	1.286
Thomas	ON	25	23	0.920	24	34	1.417
	OFF	45	37	0.822	46	38	0.826
Zoubek	ON	9	10	1.111	8	6	0.750
	OFF	61	50	0.820	62	66	1.065
Pocius	ON	19	15	0.789	20	16	0.800
	OFF	51	45	0.882	50	56	1.120
Davidson	ON	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000
	OFF	69	60	0.870	70	72	1.029
Duke Overall		70	60	0.857	70	72	1.029

Maryland Preview

The Terps have hands down been the most disappointing team in conference play this year. They've lost home games to Virginia (defensible) and Miami (aiee!!), and have failed to do any damage on the road (except at Wake Forest). What's been so bad isn't just that they've lost (after all, Duke has dropped 3 at home and 5 overall), but that they've looked awful doing it. And the fault lies squarely on the shoulders of the starting senior backcourt. DJ Strawberry is 31-89 shooting, including 6-24 from 3, in ACC play. He's also not generating steals or hitting the boards with anything resembling the frequency he was in pre-conference play. Mike Jones, too, proved that his pre-ACC prowess was a factor of schedule more than anything else. His 3 pt shooting in particular has dropped from 46.7% in non-conference play to 34.0% in conference. James Gist has had to carry the load for Maryland, and while he's done it admirably (27.5% of the scoring, 1.16 PPWS, .556 EFG%, plus good offensive and defensive rebound numbers), Gist is simply not the kind of player who can lead a successful one-man team in this conference.

As a team, Maryland has had one big Achilles heel on defense - rebounding. They don't seem to block anyone out, as opponents pick up over 40% of their own misses. In their last 3 games, Maryland has twice been outrebounded on the defensive end (FSU had 12 offensive boards to Maryland's 11 defensive, and Virginia led 18-17). Duke is going to have to hit the glass hard, because it's been a source of many points for opponents on the season. On offense, the Terps don't shoot particularly well and are very vulnerable to turnovers (at all 5 positions on the court).

One big thing Maryland will have going for them today is size. Maryland's perimeter players have the size to match up favorably with Duke's - Greivis Vazquez in particular will likely frustrate Paulus' ability to get his shot. The one mismatch will be whoever Jones is guarding - Scheyer should be able to work him through screens and get open for jumpers, and Nelson would be strong enough to take him off the dribble.

Today is an absolute must-win for both teams. Maryland's remaining schedule doesn't forecast any better than 3-3, and a 6-10 record simply won't be good enough (heck, 7-9 might not even be - wins over Illinois and Michigan State are becoming less impressive by the day). As for Duke, today is a statement game - it's about showing they have the mental toughness to go on the road, into the single most hostile environment for a Duke road team (maybe Rupp Arena would be worse, but only maybe), coming off of three straight crushing close losses that involved blown double-digit leads, and take care of business. A loss here and you worry about things slowly starting to spiral out of control.

AROUND THE ACC

UNC thrashes Wake - Terry and Wright played a combined 39 minutes, went 14-15 from the field (including 3-3 from 3), 7-8 from the line, pulled in 15 boards, and spread out 5 assists. UNC put up a .704 EFG% as a team.

Virginia Tech thrashes Virginia - the Hokies put up the best shooting game against the Wahoos in conference play - .644 EFG%, which included 67.6% from 2 (wow!). All this with Dowdell sitting on the bench for most of the game due to foul trouble. Virginia just happened to time their worst defensive performance with their worst offensive performance of the whole season - .359 EFG%, which they got by shooting bad (37%) from 2 and worse (22%) from 3. All in all, it was a perfect storm of futility that led to a big Hokie win.

Miami whomps NC State - so much for all that Engin Atsur momentum - State has now dropped consecutive games at Georgia Tech and Miami, and even the faintest glimmer of tournament hope (which is all it ever was) has disappeared. The Canes posted a 55.3 ORB% and only turned the ball over on 14.8% of possessions, turning an average shooting game (.516 EFG%) into a dynamite offensive efficiency performance (131.15 ORating). Of course, the Canes' offense has never been the problem this year - last night's 107 DRating was the best, by a full yard, in the last 8 games (which ranged between 121.1 and 138.7 - aiee!).

Heartbreak, Part 3

Three straight games, three straight double digit leads, three straight losses. This Duke team has played amazing first half basketball lately that for whatever reason it has been unable to sustain. On Wednesday, from the point where Duke led 50-40, they scored 23 points in the next 30 possessions, while UNC put up 39 in 31. In those possessions, Duke was 9 of 25 from the field, had 2 assists against 5 turnovers, got only 4 offensive rebounds out of 20 available, and (notably) went 3-10 from the free throw line. In those same possessions, UNC was 13 of 21 from the field, pulled in 5 of 11 misses, and shot 12 of 16 from the line. The Heels hit 8 of their final 9 shots down the stretch, as (really for the first time this year) Duke's inability to get a stop, any stop, killed them.

That said, what a game. Duke played with energy, heart, and emotion that never flagged. Zoubek will always have a place in my heart for tying up Terry, going to the ground, and never letting go of the ball (for a second I thought he'd take it to the bench with him). They totally frustrated Tyler Hansbrough, who couldn't deal with either smaller or larger players guarding him, and was visibly upset. I've said (though not on this site) that I have difficulty really disliking any of the players on UNC this year. I modify that statement to say that I have difficulty disliking all but Hansbrough, who I now thoroughly enjoy rooting against. He finally found an opponent he couldn't get away with pushing and shoving around and through. His 16 were very, very quiet, and boosted by some end game free throws (which, to his credit, he hit).

Duke also played well on the whole. Henderson and Scheyer had terrific games, Paulus played 38 minutes, with a whole lot of harassing defense against him, and never coughed the ball up. Zoubek showed how valuable he'll become when he learns to slow himself down a touch in the post and stop turning the ball over. McClure again reminded me of Carrawell (when he jumped center against the Heels in 97), particularly when he went return to sender in Hansbrough's face. I've heard it said that UNC didn't play their A game, as if that had nothing to do with Duke's defense. I say nuts to that. Duke totally took them out of what they wanted to do on offense, and if UNC didn't look like UNC, it had everything to do with Duke's defense.

Again, as in the UVA and FSU games, Duke was oh-so-close. I can't count how many shots seemed to go halfway down and rim out (particularly for Scheyer). There were a couple tough breaks - Zoubek tripping over Hansbrough while T was on the ground and getting whistled for a travel (that's usually a foul call); Green shoving Henderson to the ground on the inbounds play late in the game - and, unfortunately, a few too many costly turnovers. From the time they hit 50-40, Duke turned it over 5 times in 7 possessions, and while UNC only got 5 points back, it cost the Devils a crucial opportunity to extend or maintain the lead.

As for the matchups, Carolina really exploited the mismatched defense against Brandan Wright, who looked superb. UNC's collection of wings was thoroughly blah (except Terry, who had a good game), and Scheyer, Henderson, and Nelson easily won that battle. McRoberts never got into the flow on offense and got costly fouls in the second half - even with Hansbrough's struggles, Duke couldn't win that matchup. And Lawson brought his A game (he reminds everyone, including me, of Felton with a jumpshot) - even though Paulus played well with the ball, his shot wasn't quite falling, and UNC won that matchup as well.

Duke is now in the unfamiliar position of needing to play its way into the tournament. Count me among the camp who will still be confident if we're 7-9 - with a win against St. John's, that would put us at 21-10 overall, with quite possibly the most difficult ACC schedule in the conference, and toughest overall schedule in the country. The wins over Georgetown and Indiana look a lot better now than they did at the time - Duke fans should all be cheering very loudly for the Hoyas and Hoosiers the rest of the season. Of course, you can also count me among the camp who is confident we can go 9-7 or 10-6. There are no easy wins left on the schedule, but there are also no games where a win is totally out of reach. This team is 2 overtime losses and a 1 point defeat away from 8-2 in conference. There are lots of reasons why we were in the situations we were in those games, but when it comes down to it, 1 possession games are more random chance than anything else, and that tends to equalize over the course of a season.

Here's the table for the UNC game. Duke stats are now updated through UNC, and ACC stats are updated through this week's games.

Player		O Poss.	Points	OPPP	D Poss.	Points	DPPP
McRoberts	ON	57	54	0.947	59	64	1.085
	OFF	18	19	1.056	15	15	1.000
Scheyer	ON	69	68	0.986	67	70	1.045
	OFF	6	5	0.833	7	9	1.286
Nelson	ON	43	35	0.814	44	45	1.023
	OFF	32	38	1.188	30	34	1.133
Paulus	ON	71	69	0.972	71	77	1.085
	OFF	4	4	1.000	3	2	0.667
Henderson	ON	51	52	1.020	51	57	1.118
	OFF	24	21	0.875	23	22	0.957
McClure	ON	38	41	1.079	37	43	1.162
	OFF	37	32	0.865	37	36	0.973
Thomas	ON	21	19	0.905	21	17	0.810
	OFF	54	54	1.000	53	62	1.170
Zoubek	ON	19	19	1.000	17	17	1.000
	OFF	56	54	0.964	57	62	1.088
Pocius	ON	5	8	1.600	3	5	1.667
	OFF	70	65	0.929	71	74	1.042
Davidson	ON	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000
	OFF	74	73	0.986	74	79	1.068
Duke Overall		75	73	0.973	74	79	1.068