ACC Preview #10: Clemson

Full Season	Min%		Shots%		Score %		PPWS		EFG%		2FG%		3FG%
Cliff Hammonds	83.32	9	18.13	49	19.00	45	1.17	19	0.580	11	0.602	6	0.377	19
Vernon Hamilton	78.41	17	22.42	32	21.44	31	1.03	58	0.517	39	0.544	19	0.306	42
K.C. Rivers	72.39	26	25.33	15	26.51	11	1.18	18	0.573	14	0.549	16	0.395	13
James Mays	70.10	28	23.68	23	23.74	22	1.01	61	0.488	56	0.502	39	0.226
Trevor Booker	64.64	39	18.85	45	21.95	29	1.22	7	0.602	4	0.602	5	0-0
Sam Perry	38.55	72	14.03	64	12.91	66	0.92		0.453		0.448		0.333
Raymond Sykes	26.92		8.78		10.75		1.19		0.608		0.608		0-0
David Potter	23.67		20.75		14.51		0.77		0.360		0.424		0.171
Julius Powell	19.17		18.39		12.76		0.78		0.370		0.391		0.241
A.J. Tyler	10.52		15.35		12.98		0.89		0.400		0.250		0.400
	ORB%		DRB%		BLK%		AB%		TO%		A/TO		STL%
Cliff Hammonds	1.77	70	10.09	46	0.37	57	21.16	15	2.86	11	2.49	3	2.83	15
Vernon Hamilton	2.48	64	9.64	51	0.20	65	19.76	21	4.85	57	1.30	24	3.53	6
K.C. Rivers	6.01	33	12.59	33	0.35	58	11.62	36	2.46	5	1.45	18	2.48	20
James Mays	10.71	10	16.37	13	2.48	11	17.91	24	5.75	68	0.97	35	4.05	3
Trevor Booker	13.42	2	15.78	18	6.17	2	7.83	53	4.43	48	0.55	63	2.07	32
Sam Perry	8.05	24	12.69	32	1.99	15	10.28	43	4.61	51	0.80	49	3.05	13
Raymond Sykes	9.53		11.18		6.86		4.55		2.86		0.58		1.66
David Potter	5.21		10.44		1.29		11.59		4.91		0.83		1.70
Julius Powell	5.21		9.75		1.32		5.16		3.13		0.60		1.68
A.J. Tyler	8.83		24.43		0.00		7.29		4.60		0.58		0.77

Conference-Only	Min%		Shots%		Score %		PPWS		EFG%		2FG%		3FG%
Cliff Hammonds	88.76	5	19.46	43	20.62	36	1.14	26	0.566	11	0.586	4	0.369	19
Vernon Hamilton	79.85	20	24.32	18	24.16	22	1.04	47	0.528	29	0.561	10	0.306	37
James Mays	76.64	25	23.11	27	23.80	23	0.98	61	0.458	60	0.457	48	0.313
K.C. Rivers	76.20	27	23.28	24	23.10	25	1.11	29	0.542	20	0.500	33	0.391	12
Trevor Booker	68.76	40	18.59	48	20.56	37	1.15	23	0.570	9	0.570	8	0-0
Sam Perry	36.79		11.40		11.80		0.91		0.440		0.389		0.500
Raymond Sykes	26.57		8.31		9.66		1.18		0.591		0.591		0-0
David Potter	22.04		19.78		13.03		0.68		0.307		0.364		0.091
Julius Powell	10.22		18.26		3.28		0.19		0.053		0.200		0.000
	ORB%		DRB%		BLK%		AB%		TO%		A/TO		STL%
Cliff Hammonds	2.04	69	9.70	49	0.25	59	23.93	11	2.73	16	2.79	3	2.36	19
Vernon Hamilton	2.49	65	10.56	43	0.14	64	15.17	24	4.68	51	0.95	36	3.29	8
James Mays	9.65	12	13.54	26	1.73	16	16.18	23	5.29	66	0.94	38	3.51	6
K.C. Rivers	6.08	34	11.61	36	0.44	49	7.11	56	2.17	7	1.00	29	1.73	42
Trevor Booker	12.00	4	14.86	19	6.79	2	8.31	49	4.92	56	0.51	60	1.91	33
Sam Perry	5.38		10.89		3.61		9.94		4.47		0.79		4.02
Raymond Sykes	7.49		9.85		5.88		2.79		3.61		0.27		1.98
David Potter	4.46		12.63		1.49		11.32		3.51		1.11		1.96
Julius Powell	6.35		7.71		1.06		4.31		5.00		0.33		1.67

Team: Clemson
Record: 15-0 (1-0 ACC)

Starters:
Cliff Hammonds (75.3% minutes, 1.16 PPWS, 15.8 A/B%, 2.84 A/TO, 3.3 Stl%)
Vernon Hamilton (74.2% minutes, 1.09 PPWS, 18.5 A/B%, 3.9 Stl%)
James Mays (62.2% minutes, 1.08 PPWS, 12.5 ORB%, 20.7 DRB%, 13.5 A/B%, 4.1 Blk%, 5.4 Stl%)
Trevor Booker (58.0% minutes, 1.29 PPWS, 15.6 ORB%, 17.6 DRB%, 6.0 Blk%)
Sam Perry (45.3% minutes, 0.98 PPWS, 9.0 ORB%, 12.4 DRB%)

Key Reserves:
KC Rivers (64.7% minutes, 1.21 PPWS, 12.6 A/B%, 12.1 DRB%, 3.1 Stl%)
Julius Powell (35.7% minutes, 0.91 PPWS)
David Potter (27.2% minutes, 0.77 PPWS, 10.5 A/B%)
Raymond Sykes (27.8% minutes, 1.22 PPWS, 12.0 ORB%, 13.4 DRB%, 8.3 Blk%)

Biggest Win:
68-66 at FSU to open ACC play.

Worst Loss:
None. Congrats to the Tigers on an undefeated season so far

Conference Schedule:
Play Twice: Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland
Play at Home: Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Play on the Road: North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Outlook:
Clemson has been the pleasant surprise of the ACC thus far, storming out to an undefeated 15-0 season. Oliver Purnell has established himself quickly as a top flight coach, one who the Tigers can hopefully hang on to a little longer than Rick Barnes. Still, Clemson’s start is somewhat a product of its schedule – they’ve played some tough teams, including Old Dominion, Georgia, and Mississippi St, but none that they weren’t favored in until the game last night at FSU, the first real challenge of the season.

Clemson responded to that challenge, and won the same way they’ve won their other games this year – limit the number of shots the opponent can take. Clemson has forced turnovers on 27% of opponent possessions and cleans up 69% of all opponent misses. As a result, Clemson opponents have taken only 828 shots on 1040 possessions on the year (the Tigers have taken 113 more shots than their opponents). FSU last night took 50 shots from the field in 70 possessions, and turned the ball over 21 times. Clemson’s field goal defense is good, but not great, but it’s been their ability to limit the number of shots that the opponent takes that has spurred their defense.

Emblematic of this style of defense is 6’9” junior James Mays. Mays leads the team in steals, and is in the top 5 in the conference in that category. He’s also among the ACC leaders in defensive rebounding, pulling in over 20% of opponent misses all by himself. If that wasn’t enough, Mays tosses in a very solid 4.1 Blk%, making him a defensive triple threat. Mays is also taking care of business on the offensive end, scoring 25.9% of Clemson’s points. He gets a lot of points off the offensive glass, where he pulls in 12.5% of all misses. The only thing negative about his game is an annoying propensity to shoot the 3 – he takes about 1 a game, but has hit only 1 all season, for a .077 3pt%. Still, Mays is probably a first-team non-conference all-ACC as far as I’m concerned (along with Wright, Thornton, McRoberts, and Visser, if you’re curious).

Mays’ partner in crime down low has been 6’7” freshman Trevor Booker, who has put up extremely good numbers so far. He’s among the ACC’s leaders in blocks, offensive rebounding, and defensive rebounding. Booker also leads the Tigers in PPWS (1.29) buoyed by his .630 FG% and scores 22.2% of the points taking just 18.3% of the shots. Booker, without question, is a first-team non-conference all-ACC freshman as far as I’m concerned (along with Wright, Crittenton, Young, and Ishmael Smith, if you’re curious).

On the perimeter, 6’0” senior Vernon Hamilton and 6’3” junior Cliff Hammonds have been extremely solid. Hamilton’s one of those guys who seems like he’s been there forever, but has continually improved over his four years. He mans the point and leads Clemson in assists and is second in steals. His turnover percentage is a little higher than Coach Purnell would like, but it comes with the territory of being an aggressive point guard. Hammonds has had a good shooting year, particularly from 2 (62%). He devotes more of his attempts to 3s (3 to 2 ratio), but has hit a respectable 35.2% from outside, and his .566 EFG% is above average. Hammonds has also been exceptional at limiting turnovers, at only 2.4%. He’s one of few players who has more steals than turnovers, and his A/TO is one of the conference’s best.

Rounding out the starting five is 6’5” junior Sam Perry. Perry’s had a rough season so far, and although he is a starter, he plays under 50% of the minutes. He’s struggled this year, with a PPWS under 1 and an EFG% under .500. He has dished out a few assists and does alright on the glass, but is a starter in name only, and not on the floor in crunch time.

The guy who is on the floor in crunch time is 6’5” soph K.C. Rivers. Rivers has exploded this year, leading the Tigers in scoring with 29.2% of the team’s points, and has been the ultimate instant offense 6th man. He’s shooting 56.7% from 2 and 40.4% from 3, posting a .590 EFG% overall. Rivers also dishes out assists, grabs defensive rebounds, and (like Hammonds) has more steals than turnovers. He pretty much shoots without a conscience, but has a green light to do so, and has been hitting his shots so far. Whether he keeps it up during the conference season could make the difference for Clemson this year.

The rest of Clemson’s bench has been below average. Both 6’6” freshman David Potter and 6’7” sophomore Julius Powell take a lot of shots, but can’t hit the ocean from a boat, so to speak. Potter is especially brick-oriented – he takes 21.4% of Clemson’s shots while he’s on the floor, but only scores 14.2% of the points, and only two players in the conference have a lower PPWS than Potter’s 0.77. Potter also tosses in a 5.6 turnover% to boot – not a successful freshman campaign thus far. Look for his minutes (and hopefully his shots) to be limited during conference play. Powell seems to be making a habit of shooting way too many threes. As a freshman he took 106 (against 64 twos), despite hitting only 29.2% from beyond the arc. This year he’s taken 43 (against 19 twos), and hitting 30.2% from beyond the arc. Someone may want to suggest to him that the three-pointer may be a little out of his range. The final man off the bench is 6’9” soph Raymond Sykes. Sykes has been much more effective than his counterparts off the bench (I’ll treat Rivers as a 6th starter). He takes only limited shots, but has hit 64% from the floor. Sykes also rebounds and blocks shots well, and is a solid minutes eater whenever Booker needs a rest. He’ll play a consistent 10-15 minutes a game all season long.

As a team, Clemson is definitely trending upward. Only Vernon Hamilton will depart, which means Clemson should be even better next season. However, the Tigers have given fans down in South Carolina a reason to throw off the “wait till next year” talk and focus on the present. Clemson’s work this season is only halfway done, and the remainder of their work is very hard. Clemson might have the toughest schedule in the ACC, doubling up against Duke, FSU, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Boston College – five of the conference’s top seven teams. The difficulty is mitigated somewhat (but only somewhat) by their single-header road games (NC State, Wake, and Virginia Tech), but Clemson will face an uphill battle to even get 9 conference wins. Starting out with a win on the road against Florida State is good, and their next two games aren’t too tough, but then they go at Maryland, vs. UNC, vs. BC, at Duke, vs. UVA, and at Georgia Tech, which is a brutal stretch. In the silver lining department, Clemson could get under-seeded in the NCAA tournament – they’d be a brutal 7 or 8 seed for a 1 or 2 to play in the second round. If they go 7-9, it will be interesting to see how the committee treats them – they’d be 21-9 overall, and have faced one of the toughest (if not the toughest) schedules in the conference. It would be an interesting test-case to see if the committee actually notices the imbalanced schedules. Of course, Clemson can make it a moot point by just playing .500 ball the rest of the way – there’s no earthly way that a 22-8 ACC squad gets left at home. Purnell has the program going in the right direction – the next big test for him will be building on this year and sustaining the high levels of play.