Wednesday, January 03, 2007

ACC Preview #9: Boston College

Full Season
Min%
Shots%
Score % PPWS
EFG%
2FG%
3FG%
Tyrese Rice 90.83 1 25.34 14 26.14 12 1.17 20 0.531 31 0.570 11 0.322 36
Jared Dudley 86.62 4 22.82 27 26.99 9 1.30 1 0.618 2 0.602 4 0.443 4
Sean Marshall 81.95 12 28.04 3 24.34 20 1.07 53 0.510 45 0.496 45 0.357 26
John Oates 49.17 60 16.17 57 12.21 67 0.94 65 0.435 64 0.400 63 0.311 41
Shamari Spears 48.87 61 15.95 58 18.15 51 1.22 8 0.554 20 0.554 15 0-0
Marquez Haynes 43.46 69 13.88 65 11.45 68 1.02
0.500
0.517
0.320
Tyrelle Blair 36.62
8.24
9.11
1.06
0.481
0.481
0-0
Sean Williams 36.32
17.01
19.35
1.19
0.548
0.548
0-0
Tyler Roche 21.20
11.56
8.11
0.87
0.402
0.333
0.304
















ORB%
DRB%
BLK%
AB%
TO%
A/TO
STL%
Tyrese Rice 3.20 58 7.69 67 0.55 46 30.87 4 5.53 65 1.62 11 2.02 35
Jared Dudley 10.19 12 15.25 20 0.58 43 16.94 26 4.11 39 1.15 30 2.24 26
Sean Marshall 6.50 30 9.53 53 0.55 47 12.62 33 3.89 33 0.91 38 2.07 33
John Oates 5.15 37 15.12 22 1.34 25 7.47 58 2.52 6 1.00 34 0.94 71
Shamari Spears 12.32 5 13.73 27 0.51 49 7.67 56 4.69 56 0.51 64 1.21 66
Marquez Haynes 2.19 69 6.26 71 0.57 44 17.20 25 4.02 38 1.44 19 1.45 60
Tyrelle Blair 6.75
14.51
8.38
2.17
2.67
0.29
0.51
Sean Williams 9.07
14.85
9.74
6.93
4.15
0.51
2.49
Tyler Roche 6.24
11.24
0.50
9.59
2.26
1.50
1.36

Conference-Only
Min%
Shots%
Score % PPWS
EFG%
2FG%
3FG%
Jared Dudley 97.38 1 23.37 22 27.63 9 1.28 2 0.603 3 0.572 7 0.456 4
Tyrese Rice 95.72 2 24.55 15 26.57 11 1.20 9 0.540 23 0.592 3 0.316 36
Sean Marshall 84.00 15 28.12 3 24.57 18 1.05 42 0.500 42 0.478 40 0.358 25
John Oates 51.86 60 16.04 59 11.82 65 0.89 67 0.388 68 0.342 63 0.289 40
Shamari Spears 51.45 61 15.88 60 15.82 57 1.14 25 0.507 37 0.507 28 0-0
Tyrelle Blair 42.62 68 7.82 71 8.61 69 1.09
0.533
0.533
0-0
Marquez Haynes 32.00
13.38
10.57
0.95
0.450
0.429
0.316
Tyler Roche 22.34
10.73
7.34
0.89
0.452
0.625
0.231
Sean Williams 21.66
15.80
17.02
1.11
0.471
0.471
0-0
















ORB%
DRB%
BLK%
AB%
TO%
A/TO
STL%
Jared Dudley 9.28 13 16.24 16 0.58 44 14.90 26 4.91 55 0.80 47 2.03 29
Tyrese Rice 2.84 61 7.94 65 0.29 55 29.47 4 5.02 60 1.61 9 1.81 36
Sean Marshall 6.67 31 9.99 46 0.45 48 12.49 31 4.37 46 0.77 49 1.74 40
John Oates 5.95 36 16.59 14 1.27 25 7.15 55 2.65 15 0.88 40 0.50 71
Shamari Spears 11.60 5 9.29 53 0.55 46 8.28 50 4.82 54 0.52 59 1.18 61
Tyrelle Blair 6.06 35 12.22 34 8.07 1 2.47 72 1.64 3 0.50 62 0.62 70
Marquez Haynes 1.67
4.55
0.29
16.98
4.73
1.17
1.59
Tyler Roche 5.09
10.82
0.00
4.83
2.81
0.57
1.21
Sean Williams 9.25
15.46
7.54
4.77
2.55
0.57
2.19


Team:
Boston College
Record: 9-4 (1-0 ACC)

Starters:
Jared Dudley* (72.2% minutes, 1.32 PPWS, 14.3 A/B%, 11.6 ORB%, 14.1 DRB%, 2.3 Stl%)
Tyrese Rice (83.8% minutes, 1.11 PPWS, 24.0 A/B%, 2.3 Stl%)
Sean Marshall (78.1% minutes, 1.06 PPWS, 10.0 A/B%, 2.8 Stl%)
Sean Williams (67.8% minutes, 1.24 PPWS, 9.4 ORB%, 15.1 DRB%, 2.7 Stl%, 11.4 Blk%)
John Oates (46.9% minutes, 0.87 PPWS, 14.2 DRB%)

Key Reserves:
Shamari Spears (53.1% minutes, 1.25 PPWS, 14.1 ORB%, 17.7 DRB%)
Marquez Haynes (56.0% minutes, 1.09 PPWS, 16.0 A/B%)
Tyrelle Blair (21.7% minutes, 1.02 PPWS, 15.8 DRB%, 7.8 Blk%)

Biggest Win:
73-62 over Maryland to open conference play.

Worst Loss:
The 93-98 loss to Duquesne came against the inferior team, but they were minus Dudley and Oates, so I’ll say 63-77 at home to Vermont (though they were minus Williams – argh, I’m so torn!).

Conference Schedule:
Play Twice: Miami, Virginia Tech, Duke, Florida State, Clemson
Play at Home: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina
Play on the Road: North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest

Outlook:
BC, like NC State, came into the season as one of the thinner teams in terms of depth. And, like NC State, BC has suffered injury problems during the year. Both Jared Dudley and John Oates missed games with left foot injuries. The Eagles also have had suspension issues. Sean Williams missed the first two games under a suspension for violation of team rules. Combining the two problems, Akida McClain was suspended for the first 9 games for team policy violation, then started his first game back against Kansas, played 4 minutes, and was promptly injured with a high ankle sprain, and hasn’t played since. Still, even with the injuries and suspensions, BC has been underwhelming. The consensus pick for the #3 spot in the ACC sits at 9-4 with losses to Duquense, Vermont, and Providence – not exactly world-beaters.

Eagles fans still have a lot to be optimistic about for the coming conference season, especially once 6’7” senior Jared Dudley comes back from his injury. Dudley has done precisely what was expected of him coming into the season. He’s played 95% of the minutes while healthy, and has scored a team leading 25.5% of the points on superb shooting – 1.32 PPWS and .621 EFG%. He also makes assists (14.3 A/B% and the best A/TO ratio on the team), rebounds (11.6 ORB%, 14.1 DRB%), and plays some solid defense (2.3 Stl%). The one criticism of Dudley (and perhaps of the Eagles in general) is that he’s not taking more shots – despite being the team’s best shooter, he only takes 20.9% of the shots. That’s a number that needs to increase during conference play for the Eagles to see success.

Starting in the backcourt for the Eagles, and taking the lion’s share of the shots, are 6’1” soph Tyrese Rice and 6’6” senior Sean Marshall. In Dudley’s absence, the two have combined for 95 shots and 143 points in 3 games – that’s over half of all shots and a full 57% of all points for BC in that span, regardless of minutes played. Rice mans the point, and leads the team with a 24.0 A/B%. However, he turns the ball over a lot at over 6%. Rice’s outside shot has struggled, though it hasn’t interfered with his willingness to take it. He’s hit just 32% of his 75 three-point attempts on the year. Marshall leads the team in shots taken (28.3%) but has posted only 24.4% of the points, thanks to an EFG% that barely creeps over .500. Marshall has struggled from 2 point range this year, hitting just 49.1% of his 116 attempts from inside the arc, and his outside shooting is not quite good (or frequent) enough to make up for it. Still, when it comes down to crunch time, Rice and Marshall are just as willing and just as likely to end up taking the big shot as Dudley (they’re just not as likely to actually make it).

Inside, the Eagles are led by 6’10” junior Sean Williams, one of the best shot blockers in the country. In his first game back off of suspension, he posted the unconventional rebounds-blocks double-double, and recorded a triple-double in overtime against Duquense. Williams leads the ACC with a sick 11.4 Blk% - he’s blocking more than one out of every 10 shots that opponents take. When you consider that 31% of opponent’s shots are three-pointers, and he’s not blocking a lot of 3 pointers, his numbers become all the more impressive. Williams has also developed into a reliable, though not great, interior scoring option, hitting 59% from the field.

The final BC starter is 6’10” junior John Oates. Oates is tall, but he doesn’t really play big. His rebounding is only average, and is actually below average on the offensive end. He’s also much happier on the perimeter on offense than inside, and has taken more 3s than 2s on the year (the only Eagle to do so). Unfortunately for BC, Oates has been awful from outside, hitting just 24.1% from beyond the arc.

Off the bench, the Eagles have three primary reserves: 6’6” freshman Shamari Spears, 6’3” soph Marquez Haynes, and, to a lesser extent, 6’11” junior Tyrelle Blair. Spears has been a real pleasant surprise. He’s an excellent rebounder for a 6’6” forward, both on the offensive (14.1%) and defensive (17.7%) glass. Spears is actually BC’s leading rebounder (by tempo-free, not standard stats) on both ends of the court. He has also been an effective interior scorer – 57.6 FG%, and a 1.25 PPWS, edging out Williams for second best behind Dudley on the team. Spears has also been the best at getting to the line out of all the Eagles, with a 78.8 FT Rate. Marquez Haynes is the only perimeter backup (hence the big minutes for Rice, Marshall, and Dudley) and he’s played solidly as a reserve. His assist numbers are respectable, and he hits from the field just well enough to keep defenses honest. Still, he hasn’t really taken a step forward yet in his second season, which must be disappointing to some BC fans. Finally, Tyrelle Blair has provided capable backup interior D, and no offense. He gathers 15.8% of defensive rebound and posts a very good 7.8 Blk%, but takes just 8% of the team’s shots while he’s on the court, and is shooting just 38.5% from the field.

BC has, without question, been the most disappointing team of the year so far. But that doesn’t mean the season is destined to be a disappointment. Their conference schedule is among the tougher, but certainly not the toughest, and it’s good to only have to play UNC and Maryland once each, and both at home. Arguably their three toughest singleheader opponents all go to Chestnut Hill, while the Eagles travel to NC State, Wake, and Georgia Tech. Still, having to double up against Duke, FSU, Clemson, and Virginia Tech isn’t fun. This team could put it together and put up double figure win numbers in conference, but I’m skeptical, and think BC is much more likely to be 8-8 or 9-7. 8-8 would leave them at only 17 wins headed into the ACC tourney, which is in serious bubble country, if not out of contention entirely.