Duke Tempo-Free Comparison

So, there's not a whole lot of difference between the "real" tempo free player stats and the standard version. I think the lesson here is that the value is more present in the team-based stats - i.e., how the team plays when a particular player is on the floor. Next season, I may try something a little different - go to lineup based team stats, and use the HD Box rather than the efficiency chart for player stats (or some combination of both). We'll see. Here's how they compare - as you can see, in most cases we're talking about differences of hundredths: (note - there's no difference for things like PPWS, EFG%, A/TO, etc., because they're not possession dependent) (note 2 - these are for all games except Air Force, Gonzaga, St. John's, Maryland at home, and at UNC).

Scoring %
Zoubek	25.14	Zoubek	25.52
Nelson	24.56	Nelson	24.98
McRoberts	22.12	McRoberts	22.42
Scheyer	20.78	Scheyer	20.91
Henderson	20.35	Paulus	19.24
Paulus	19.10	Henderson	19.17
Pocius	16.05	Pocius	18.20
Thomas	15.11	Thomas	14.74
McClure	12.51	McClure	12.35
% Shots Taken
Nelson	26.45	Nelson	26.24
Henderson	22.93	Henderson	22.51
McRoberts	21.74	Zoubek	22.00
Zoubek	21.51	McRoberts	21.96
Scheyer	20.16	Scheyer	19.93
Paulus	18.98	Paulus	19.48
Pocius	17.95	Pocius	18.16
Thomas	12.84	Thomas	12.38
McClure	11.99	McClure	12.00
PPWS
McClure	1.16
Thomas	1.16
Zoubek	1.16
Scheyer	1.15
Paulus	1.15
Pocius	1.15
McRoberts	1.12
Nelson	1.10
Henderson	0.99
EFG%
McClure	0.573
Thomas	0.561
Nelson	0.543
Paulus	0.544
McRoberts	0.527
Zoubek	0.517
Scheyer	0.510
Henderson	0.474
Pocius	0.548
A/B%
Paulus	23.01	Paulus	23.42
McRoberts	20.21	McRoberts	20.63
Nelson	14.18	Nelson	14.39
Henderson	13.39	Henderson	12.71
Scheyer	11.41	Scheyer	11.47
Pocius	7.69	Pocius	7.71
Zoubek	5.94	Zoubek	6.09
McClure	4.11	McClure	3.98
Thomas	0.46	Thomas	0.46
ORB%
Zoubek	17.31	Zoubek	16.88
Thomas	11.22	Thomas	10.55
McClure	8.96	McClure	9.16
McRoberts	7.11	McRoberts	7.22
Henderson	6.58	Henderson	6.56
Nelson	5.79	Nelson	5.72
Scheyer	4.62	Scheyer	4.56
Pocius	2.99	Pocius	2.95
Paulus	2.14	Paulus	2.18
DRB%
McRoberts	19.66	Zoubek	20.07
Zoubek	19.57	McRoberts	19.44
McClure	16.88	McClure	17.86
Nelson	14.44	Nelson	14.13
Thomas	12.13	Henderson	11.71
Henderson	11.38	Thomas	10.55
Scheyer	7.08	Scheyer	7.02
Paulus	6.26	Pocius	6.58
Pocius	5.85	Paulus	6.11
Block%
McRoberts	5.18	McRoberts	5.19
Zoubek	2.83	Zoubek	2.82
McClure	2.32	McClure	2.40
Henderson	1.41	Henderson	1.42
Nelson	1.19	Nelson	1.16
Thomas	0.59	Thomas	0.54
Pocius	0.41	Pocius	0.42
Scheyer	0.39	Scheyer	0.39
Paulus	0.16	Paulus	0.16
A/T Ratio
McRoberts	1.44
Paulus	1.22
Scheyer	1.12
Henderson	0.86
Nelson	0.82
Pocius	0.44
McClure	0.33
Zoubek	0.19
Thomas	0.02
Turnover Rate
Scheyer	3.17	Scheyer	3.16
McClure	3.75	McClure	3.80
McRoberts	4.05	McRoberts	4.04
Henderson	4.35	Henderson	4.28
Nelson	4.78	Nelson	4.77
Pocius	5.13	Pocius	5.40
Paulus	5.82	Paulus	5.87
Thomas	6.11	Thomas	6.00
Zoubek	9.25	Zoubek	9.16
Steal Rate
McClure	3.43	McClure	3.52
Nelson	2.44	Nelson	2.43
Thomas	2.41	Thomas	2.35
Scheyer	2.35	Scheyer	2.35
Paulus	2.32	Paulus	2.34
McRoberts	1.95	McRoberts	1.96
Henderson	1.62	Henderson	1.62
Zoubek	1.15	Zoubek	1.15
Pocius	0.63	Pocius	0.68
Possession %		Minutes %
McRoberts	86.10	McRoberts	86.37
Scheyer	83.00	Scheyer	83.36
Paulus	79.42	Paulus	79.20
Nelson	77.92	Nelson	78.85
McClure	54.99	McClure	54.34
Henderson	45.17	Henderson	45.49
Thomas	35.11	Thomas	36.19
Zoubek	18.24	Zoubek	18.32
Pocius	16.50	Pocius	15.66

The column on the left is the actual number - so, for example, Brian Zoubek actually scored 25.14% of Duke's points while he was on the floor. The column on the right is the "estimated" number, which is derived from taking Zoubek's points, and dividing by the product of the team's total points and the percentage of minutes Zoubek played. That formula estimated his scoring at 25.52% of Duke's points. This difference is attributable to the fact that the offense scored more points per possession while he was on the floor - to be precise, Duke scored 5.5 more points in Zoubek's 346 offensive possessions than they scored in an average 346 possessions stretch (370 to 364.5). The astute statisticians among you will realize that this means Zoubek was worth almost exactly one offensive point per game above average for this year's Duke team (1 point per 63 possessions); that is, Duke scored one more point every 63 possessions they played with him on the floor than they did when they played without him. So, over the course of the season, the estimates seem to generally regress to the mean, and while they may be off in a particular game, in the long term, they look to be essentially accurate on the whole. Here's one final tidbit - from the last two stats (possession % and minutes %) we can look at the team's pace by player:

Pocius	70.51
McClure	67.70
Paulus	67.08
McRoberts	66.69
Scheyer	66.61
Zoubek	66.61
Henderson	66.43
Nelson	66.11
Thomas	64.91

Duke's average for the games I was able to track was 66.86, so we tended to play essentially around the mean with Paulus, McRoberts, and Scheyer (not surprising, as they got the most PT), faster with McClure, a lot faster with Marty, slower with Nelson, and a lot slower with Thomas.