Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Duke Tempo-Free Comparison

So, there's not a whole lot of difference between the "real" tempo free player stats and the standard version. I think the lesson here is that the value is more present in the team-based stats - i.e., how the team plays when a particular player is on the floor. Next season, I may try something a little different - go to lineup based team stats, and use the HD Box rather than the efficiency chart for player stats (or some combination of both). We'll see. Here's how they compare - as you can see, in most cases we're talking about differences of hundredths: (note - there's no difference for things like PPWS, EFG%, A/TO, etc., because they're not possession dependent) (note 2 - these are for all games except Air Force, Gonzaga, St. John's, Maryland at home, and at UNC).

Scoring %


Zoubek25.14Zoubek25.52
Nelson24.56Nelson24.98
McRoberts22.12McRoberts22.42
Scheyer20.78Scheyer20.91
Henderson20.35Paulus19.24
Paulus19.10Henderson19.17
Pocius16.05Pocius18.20
Thomas15.11Thomas14.74
McClure12.51McClure12.35




% Shots Taken


Nelson26.45Nelson26.24
Henderson22.93Henderson22.51
McRoberts21.74Zoubek22.00
Zoubek21.51McRoberts21.96
Scheyer20.16Scheyer19.93
Paulus18.98Paulus19.48
Pocius17.95Pocius18.16
Thomas12.84Thomas12.38
McClure11.99McClure12.00




PPWS


McClure1.16

Thomas1.16

Zoubek1.16

Scheyer1.15

Paulus1.15

Pocius1.15

McRoberts1.12

Nelson1.10

Henderson0.99





EFG%


McClure0.573

Thomas0.561

Nelson0.543

Paulus0.544

McRoberts0.527

Zoubek0.517

Scheyer0.510

Henderson0.474

Pocius0.548





A/B%


Paulus23.01Paulus23.42
McRoberts20.21McRoberts20.63
Nelson14.18Nelson14.39
Henderson13.39Henderson12.71
Scheyer11.41Scheyer11.47
Pocius7.69Pocius7.71
Zoubek5.94Zoubek6.09
McClure4.11McClure3.98
Thomas0.46Thomas0.46




ORB%


Zoubek17.31Zoubek16.88
Thomas11.22Thomas10.55
McClure8.96McClure9.16
McRoberts7.11McRoberts7.22
Henderson6.58Henderson6.56
Nelson5.79Nelson5.72
Scheyer4.62Scheyer4.56
Pocius2.99Pocius2.95
Paulus2.14Paulus2.18




DRB%


McRoberts19.66Zoubek20.07
Zoubek19.57McRoberts19.44
McClure16.88McClure17.86
Nelson14.44Nelson14.13
Thomas12.13Henderson11.71
Henderson11.38Thomas10.55
Scheyer7.08Scheyer7.02
Paulus6.26Pocius6.58
Pocius5.85Paulus6.11




Block%


McRoberts5.18McRoberts5.19
Zoubek2.83Zoubek2.82
McClure2.32McClure2.40
Henderson1.41Henderson1.42
Nelson1.19Nelson1.16
Thomas0.59Thomas0.54
Pocius0.41Pocius0.42
Scheyer0.39Scheyer0.39
Paulus0.16Paulus0.16




A/T Ratio


McRoberts1.44

Paulus1.22

Scheyer1.12

Henderson0.86

Nelson0.82

Pocius0.44

McClure0.33

Zoubek0.19

Thomas0.02





Turnover Rate


Scheyer3.17Scheyer3.16
McClure3.75McClure3.80
McRoberts4.05McRoberts4.04
Henderson4.35Henderson4.28
Nelson4.78Nelson4.77
Pocius5.13Pocius5.40
Paulus5.82Paulus5.87
Thomas6.11Thomas6.00
Zoubek9.25Zoubek9.16




Steal Rate


McClure3.43McClure3.52
Nelson2.44Nelson2.43
Thomas2.41Thomas2.35
Scheyer2.35Scheyer2.35
Paulus2.32Paulus2.34
McRoberts1.95McRoberts1.96
Henderson1.62Henderson1.62
Zoubek1.15Zoubek1.15
Pocius0.63Pocius0.68




Possession %
Minutes %
McRoberts86.10McRoberts86.37
Scheyer83.00Scheyer83.36
Paulus79.42Paulus79.20
Nelson77.92Nelson78.85
McClure54.99McClure54.34
Henderson45.17Henderson45.49
Thomas35.11Thomas36.19
Zoubek18.24Zoubek18.32
Pocius16.50Pocius15.66

The column on the left is the actual number - so, for example, Brian Zoubek actually scored 25.14% of Duke's points while he was on the floor. The column on the right is the "estimated" number, which is derived from taking Zoubek's points, and dividing by the product of the team's total points and the percentage of minutes Zoubek played. That formula estimated his scoring at 25.52% of Duke's points. This difference is attributable to the fact that the offense scored more points per possession while he was on the floor - to be precise, Duke scored 5.5 more points in Zoubek's 346 offensive possessions than they scored in an average 346 possessions stretch (370 to 364.5). The astute statisticians among you will realize that this means Zoubek was worth almost exactly one offensive point per game above average for this year's Duke team (1 point per 63 possessions); that is, Duke scored one more point every 63 possessions they played with him on the floor than they did when they played without him. So, over the course of the season, the estimates seem to generally regress to the mean, and while they may be off in a particular game, in the long term, they look to be essentially accurate on the whole. Here's one final tidbit - from the last two stats (possession % and minutes %) we can look at the team's pace by player:

Pocius70.51
McClure67.70
Paulus67.08
McRoberts66.69
Scheyer66.61
Zoubek66.61
Henderson66.43
Nelson66.11
Thomas64.91

Duke's average for the games I was able to track was 66.86, so we tended to play essentially around the mean with Paulus, McRoberts, and Scheyer (not surprising, as they got the most PT), faster with McClure, a lot faster with Marty, slower with Nelson, and a lot slower with Thomas.

2 comments:

Michael said...

A lot has been said by the less optimistic Duke fans about our bleak future next year with Zoubek as our primary center (assuming Patterson doesn't come to Duke). But if he can even improve his defensive rebounding a bit, steady a pivot foot in the post, and keep up his production for 30 minutes a game, I think we'll be in pretty good shape until (hopefully) Monroe and Gordon show up in summer 2008.

Douglas said...

paul,

don't look now, but oh goodness:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/

i love baseballprospectus.com, so i can't help but see this as an unequivocally very good thing. i'm excited!!!