Heartbreak, Part 3

Three straight games, three straight double digit leads, three straight losses. This Duke team has played amazing first half basketball lately that for whatever reason it has been unable to sustain. On Wednesday, from the point where Duke led 50-40, they scored 23 points in the next 30 possessions, while UNC put up 39 in 31. In those possessions, Duke was 9 of 25 from the field, had 2 assists against 5 turnovers, got only 4 offensive rebounds out of 20 available, and (notably) went 3-10 from the free throw line. In those same possessions, UNC was 13 of 21 from the field, pulled in 5 of 11 misses, and shot 12 of 16 from the line. The Heels hit 8 of their final 9 shots down the stretch, as (really for the first time this year) Duke's inability to get a stop, any stop, killed them.

That said, what a game. Duke played with energy, heart, and emotion that never flagged. Zoubek will always have a place in my heart for tying up Terry, going to the ground, and never letting go of the ball (for a second I thought he'd take it to the bench with him). They totally frustrated Tyler Hansbrough, who couldn't deal with either smaller or larger players guarding him, and was visibly upset. I've said (though not on this site) that I have difficulty really disliking any of the players on UNC this year. I modify that statement to say that I have difficulty disliking all but Hansbrough, who I now thoroughly enjoy rooting against. He finally found an opponent he couldn't get away with pushing and shoving around and through. His 16 were very, very quiet, and boosted by some end game free throws (which, to his credit, he hit).

Duke also played well on the whole. Henderson and Scheyer had terrific games, Paulus played 38 minutes, with a whole lot of harassing defense against him, and never coughed the ball up. Zoubek showed how valuable he'll become when he learns to slow himself down a touch in the post and stop turning the ball over. McClure again reminded me of Carrawell (when he jumped center against the Heels in 97), particularly when he went return to sender in Hansbrough's face. I've heard it said that UNC didn't play their A game, as if that had nothing to do with Duke's defense. I say nuts to that. Duke totally took them out of what they wanted to do on offense, and if UNC didn't look like UNC, it had everything to do with Duke's defense.

Again, as in the UVA and FSU games, Duke was oh-so-close. I can't count how many shots seemed to go halfway down and rim out (particularly for Scheyer). There were a couple tough breaks - Zoubek tripping over Hansbrough while T was on the ground and getting whistled for a travel (that's usually a foul call); Green shoving Henderson to the ground on the inbounds play late in the game - and, unfortunately, a few too many costly turnovers. From the time they hit 50-40, Duke turned it over 5 times in 7 possessions, and while UNC only got 5 points back, it cost the Devils a crucial opportunity to extend or maintain the lead.

As for the matchups, Carolina really exploited the mismatched defense against Brandan Wright, who looked superb. UNC's collection of wings was thoroughly blah (except Terry, who had a good game), and Scheyer, Henderson, and Nelson easily won that battle. McRoberts never got into the flow on offense and got costly fouls in the second half - even with Hansbrough's struggles, Duke couldn't win that matchup. And Lawson brought his A game (he reminds everyone, including me, of Felton with a jumpshot) - even though Paulus played well with the ball, his shot wasn't quite falling, and UNC won that matchup as well.

Duke is now in the unfamiliar position of needing to play its way into the tournament. Count me among the camp who will still be confident if we're 7-9 - with a win against St. John's, that would put us at 21-10 overall, with quite possibly the most difficult ACC schedule in the conference, and toughest overall schedule in the country. The wins over Georgetown and Indiana look a lot better now than they did at the time - Duke fans should all be cheering very loudly for the Hoyas and Hoosiers the rest of the season. Of course, you can also count me among the camp who is confident we can go 9-7 or 10-6. There are no easy wins left on the schedule, but there are also no games where a win is totally out of reach. This team is 2 overtime losses and a 1 point defeat away from 8-2 in conference. There are lots of reasons why we were in the situations we were in those games, but when it comes down to it, 1 possession games are more random chance than anything else, and that tends to equalize over the course of a season.

Here's the table for the UNC game. Duke stats are now updated through UNC, and ACC stats are updated through this week's games.

Player		O Poss.	Points	OPPP	D Poss.	Points	DPPP
McRoberts	ON	57	54	0.947	59	64	1.085
	OFF	18	19	1.056	15	15	1.000
Scheyer	ON	69	68	0.986	67	70	1.045
	OFF	6	5	0.833	7	9	1.286
Nelson	ON	43	35	0.814	44	45	1.023
	OFF	32	38	1.188	30	34	1.133
Paulus	ON	71	69	0.972	71	77	1.085
	OFF	4	4	1.000	3	2	0.667
Henderson	ON	51	52	1.020	51	57	1.118
	OFF	24	21	0.875	23	22	0.957
McClure	ON	38	41	1.079	37	43	1.162
	OFF	37	32	0.865	37	36	0.973
Thomas	ON	21	19	0.905	21	17	0.810
	OFF	54	54	1.000	53	62	1.170
Zoubek	ON	19	19	1.000	17	17	1.000
	OFF	56	54	0.964	57	62	1.088
Pocius	ON	5	8	1.600	3	5	1.667
	OFF	70	65	0.929	71	74	1.042
Davidson	ON	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000
	OFF	74	73	0.986	74	79	1.068
Duke Overall		75	73	0.973	74	79	1.068