ACC Semis Wrap and Finals Preview

One thing was clear from the two semifinal games today in Atlanta - don't expect an easy whistle. Officials in both games let guys maul each other in the paint - lots of contact on layups went uncalled, and lots of leaps over the back on rebounds went uncalled. From what I saw, each team suffered equally - everyone simply got beat up with near impunity. Part of me was yelling at the TV, watching things that were fouls all season go uncalled. Another part of me was thankful, knowing that the NCAA tournament tends to involve swallowed whistles, and thinking that it was good for the ACC's elite teams to get a preview for that kind of officiating. And, finally, part of me was disappointed that, on semifinal Saturday, I knew the first thing I was going to be writing about was the style of officiating.

But enough of that. Today's attendees at the Georgia Dome saw two extremely hard fought games. Toney Douglas was again exceptional for the Noles, leading the way with 27 points and a 132 offensive rating while using 30.5% of FSU's possessions. In case you're counting at home, that's 17 straight games of greater than 23% usage and an offensive rating of 108 or higher. In short, he's really, really good. Chris Singleton struggled with fouls and turnovers, but hit a couple of huge jumpers (the almost 3 to put them up 66-62, and then the actual three shortly thereafter), and Solomon Alabi showed how much he's developed since the start of the year. He's averaged 11, 6, and 2.5 blocks over the last 6, and consistently gives them positive minutes.

For Carolina, one set of numbers told me how much they missed Lawson - pace. In ACC play, UNC averaged 74.7 possessions per game. In two games in Atlanta, they let Virginia Tech and FSU hold them to 65 and 64 possessions, respectively. Carolina's offense was still strong - 149 points in 129 possessions. But they never showed the kind of speed they have when Lawson is in the game, and it cost them the easier transition opportunities they feast on when he's running the show. Tyler Hansbrough did pretty much everything he could (it's to his great credit that I was shocked when he failed to convert after given the ball with the Heels down 1 in the last minute - those are plays he always seems to make), but it proved to be not quite enough without UNC's motor in the game. Also, Danny Green never wants to see Atlanta again - 3 of 25 from the field, for his two worst offensive games of the entire season.

Here's the +/- from the early game. Drew's numbers surprised me, but Davis's didn't. He played much better than Deon Thompson. He's going to be a serious defensive force next season (if still a little raw offensively).

				Florida State
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Kitchen	27	20	7	44	38	6	71	58	13
Alabi	27	25	2	41	33	8	68	58	10
Dulkys	11	13	-2	17	13	4	28	26	2
Reid	21	23	-2	10	7	3	31	30	1
Douglas	24	29	-5	44	38	6	68	67	1
Singleton	10	11	-1	21	21	0	31	32	-1
Loucks	7	8	-1	0	0	0	7	8	-1
Gibson	2	2	0	3	5	-2	5	7	-2
Echefu	8	14	-6	34	31	3	42	45	-3
DeMercy	8	15	-7	6	4	2	14	19	-5
	29	32	-3	44	38	6	73	70	3
				North Carolina
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Drew	16	6	10	20	17	3	36	23	13
Davis	19	12	7	22	20	2	41	32	9
Ellington	31	27	4	36	37	-1	67	64	3
Zeller	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	4	0
Hansbrough	23	27	-4	36	37	-1	59	64	-5
Thompson	18	15	3	18	31	-13	36	46	-10
Green	26	25	1	30	42	-12	56	67	-11
Frasor	23	29	-6	28	36	-8	51	65	-14
	32	29	3	38	44	-6	70	73	-3

In the evening game, Maryland fought the good fight, but they just didn't quite have enough firepower to beat the Devils. They deserve a lot of credit for relentlessly attacking the boards in Atlanta - after putting up one of the worst offensive rebounding seasons in the league, they got over 40% of their own misses against both Wake and Duke. Vasquez again struggled against the Devils - 14 points on 17 shots plus 4 turnovers. On the season, he's produced just 32 points in 41.5 possessions used against Duke, and didn't post an offensive rating higher than 93 in any of the three games. Eric Hayes was ridiculous down the stretch to keep the game close - he hit a series of tough, well-defended shots off a variety of different moves from a variety of different places on the court - it had me saying "you've got to be kidding me" more than once.

Singler, Scheyer, and Smith had very nice games for Duke. Nolan played harassing defense and did solid point duty, hitting double figures for the first time in over a month. He also contributed three assists without turning the ball over. Scheyer was again a steadying hand at the lead guard and shot the ball well - in two games in Atlanta, he's 8-19 from 3, 2-2 from 2, and 8-10 from the line (yes, his two misses have come in key spots, but it's tough to blame a guy shooting 80%). And Singler showed that there are other ways to contribute when your shots aren't falling. On a day when he was just 3-12 from the field (and 1-9 from 2), he attacked the offensive glass and got himself to the line, ending up with a very solid offensive rating for his efforts.

K put the game in the hands of 5 guys. At the 12:05 mark, Henderson and McClure came in for Thomas and Williams, and that was Duke's last substitution. Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, McClure, and Singler played the game's final 20 possessions without a sub, and did enough to deliver Duke the victory. That lineup ended up just +2 on the game, but those five were clearly Duke's best players tonight, and they did what was necessary to deliver the win. Nolan proved especially valuable - the squad was +17! when he was in the game, and got outscored 16-5 when he was sitting.

Here's the HD Box, and the plus/minus for Maryland:

				Maryland
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Tucker	5	0	5	0	3	-3	5	3	2
Bowie	18	17	1	19	19	0	37	36	1
Dupree	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neal	28	24	4	20	25	-5	48	49	-1
Vasquez	30	29	1	31	35	-4	61	64	-3
Milbourne	25	28	-3	23	25	-2	48	53	-5
Mosley	21	23	-2	16	20	-4	37	43	-6
Gregory	7	12	-5	19	20	-1	26	32	-6
Hayes	16	27	-11	27	28	-1	43	55	-12
	30	32	-2	31	35	-4	61	67	-6

Tomorrow will be the third Duke/FSU matchup. Both games have been close Duke wins - by 8 at FSU and by 3 in Cameron in a nailbiter. The Noles have had difficulty stopping Singler and Henderson - the two have combined for 81 points in the two games and are a collective +39. The two games couldn't look more different. In the first, neither team could shoot, but FSU pounded the glass (47.92 ORB%) and turned Duke over (turnovers in 1 of every 4 Duke possessions). In the second, the Noles lit it up from the field (.567 efg%), but had no presence on the offensive glass (just 25.71 ORB%) and couldn't get the Devils to cough it up (turnovers in 1 of every 11 Duke possessions). Neither team needs this game for tournament reasons - I think Duke is locked into a 2 seed and FSU should have a 4 sewn up (although maybe they'd be a 5 with a loss, which is a bigger difference than one might think, since the 12s are usually the last at large teams, and the 13s are usually the first auto-bid teams, and there can be a substantial talent gap between the two). But both teams have played this weekend like they really want the title, and there will be zero punches pulled tomorrow afternoon.

ACC Day 2 Wrap and Day 3 Preview

Virginia Tech has no one to blame but themselves. They had every opportunity to win, and couldn't execute when they needed to. Plus, their foul trouble killed them. Vassallo had a terrific game, and the Hokies were +7 (56-49) when he was in. But his foul trouble forced him to sit much more than usual, and the team was -10 (20-30) when he was sitting next to the coaches. The numbers were somewhat similar for Allen - +2 when he was in, -5 when he was out. Those two were the only Hokies with positive +/- numbers, and they were the two who struggled with fouls all game. Now, they'll likely be heading to the NIT once again. The Hokies will look back on this season as one of near misses - the half court heave by Xavier, the loss to Wisconsin, the terrible loss to Georgia, etc., etc.

For Carolina, they just don't look like the same team without Lawson on the court. The post players all had very nice games, as they had size and skill advantages over Tech's big men - Ed Davis in particular played very well. And Hansbrough made all the key plays when the counted - the big layup, clutch free throws, the "jump ball." For UNC's sake, they need to stop him from showing off his jumper to the NBA scouts and get back down in the post where he's close to unstoppable at the college level. There's no reason he should spend so much time floating around 15-20 feet from the basket. As a bonus, here's the +/- from game 1:

				Virginia Tech
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Vassallo	23	15	8	33	34	-1	56	49	7
Allen	22	19	3	21	22	-1	43	41	2
Diakite	37	36	1	20	22	-2	57	58	-1
Thorns	17	20	-3	11	10	1	28	30	-2
Bell	11	13	-2	0	0	0	11	13	-2
Thompson	22	24	-2	27	28	-1	49	52	-3
Davila	3	7	-4	0	0	0	3	7	-4
Delaney	37	41	-4	34	36	-2	71	77	-6
Hudson	38	40	-2	24	28	-4	62	68	-6
	42	43	-1	34	36	-2	76	79	-3
				North Carolina
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Davis	29	23	6	14	13	1	43	36	7
Drew	21	20	1	10	6	4	31	26	5
Frasor	39	34	5	30	32	-2	69	66	3
Ellington	40	38	2	32	31	1	72	69	3
Hansbrough	33	35	-2	34	29	5	67	64	3
Watts	17	14	3	0	0	0	17	14	3
Zeller	4	5	-1	4	3	1	8	8	0
Thompson	20	21	-1	20	23	-3	40	44	-4
Green	12	20	-8	36	33	3	48	53	-5
	43	42	1	36	34	2	79	76	3

In game 2, FSU played just well enough to win. Toney Douglas was again exceptional; 25 points and extremely good perimeter defense. Lewis Clinch scored a lot, but needed way too many shots - unlike Thursday, his points today were not efficient. For the second time this season, FSU and Georgia Tech played to a defensive stand-still. The collective offensive rating for the game was just about 90, which is over a point and a half per possession below the league average for the season. Also, memo to Jimmy Dykes: Gani Lawal does not miss free throws because he lacks "toughness" or a "big valentine"; he misses free throws because he's not a good free throw shooter.

FSU should be hungry to get another shot at the Tar Heels. They had them all but beat in Tallahassee, and then some questionable decision-making (and Ty Lawson playing Tyus Edney) had them walking away with the L. Hansbrough really struggled in that game, with 8 points, 5 boards, 2 turnovers, and 0! free throw attempts (and some foul trouble of his own). He can't afford a repeat of that kind of performance with Lawson out. Nor can Danny Green afford a repeat of today's shooting.

On to the evening session. Last year, Wake had a serious style problem. They had a team that did not shoot the 3 well but that loved to take 3s. They hit barely over 30%, but took about 20 a game. This year, as they got even bigger, Gaudio totally reversed course - they eschewed the perimeter and focused inside, inside, inside, taking a lower percentage of their attempts from three than any team in America. Coming into tonight, they had attempted 11 threes or fewer in half their games. Against Maryland, they have a huge size advantage - Johnson, Aminu, McFarland, Weaver, and Woods are all taller than Neal, Gregory, or Milbourne. And yet for some reason, as soon as Maryland dropped into a 2-3, the Deacs fell in love with the outside shot, to their great detriment. Wake took 25 threes, the most they attempted in any game this year, and made just 3, on their way to shooting under 30% from the field for the game. For Maryland, Vasquez had another solid game, and as a team, the Terps finally took advantage of their skill at the free throw line - 26 attempts tonight against just 2 when they played in College Park. Maryland also had a surprisingly effective day on the offensive glass - getting 45.4% of their misses was their best offensive rebounding performance in ACC play, and came against Wake's front line to boot.

In the nightcap, Duke and BC both struggled with shooting in the first half, heated up a bit in the second half, and came down with an exciting end to a day of close games. I'll have more on this one tomorrow morning when I get a chance to run the lineup numbers and see how the +/- turned out. But it was a good "survive and advance" win for the Devils. Maryland is going to be itching to beat Duke, and beating any team three times in the same season is difficult (I could be wrong, but I believe the last time we did that to Maryland was in 2001, and all three wins were classics). For BC, they shouldn't have to sweat too much - 22 wins, including victories over UNC and Duke (and a 1 point loss to Duke), plus 10 wins against ACC play. But you know they wish they could get those Harvard and St. Louis games back. If Baylor, Tulsa, Mississippi State, or USC wins their conference tourneys, bubble bids will get stolen.

ACC Day 1 Wrap and Day 2 Preview

Solid, but not spectacular day 1 for the ACC. Georgia Tech made the big headlines with its Clemson upset, and Virginia Tech made a good statement with a convincing win over Miami.

Games 1/5 - Virginia Tech over Miami, against North Carolina
The Hurricanes picked a very bad time to have their worst shooting and worst offensive rebounding game of the season. The Hokies held them to .404 efg% and just 19% on offensive rebounds. Nobody on Miami got to double figures. For Virginia Tech, Malcolm Delaney overcame a poor shooting performance from the field (1-10) with a huge night at the line (14-15). JT Thompson made solid contributions with 12 and 8 without missing a shot on the floor.

So now the Hokies have to deal with North Carolina. The game in Blacksburg last week was a closse one, despite the fact that Virginia Tech was ice cold from three and couldn't turn UNC over. The Hokies played even with Carolina on the glass and held them to a sub 50% shooting night. Lawson, who had 22 and 5 assists, will not play. Roy should look to Bobby Frasor as the replacement point guard, because Drew has been the single worst player in the ACC this season - he has an offensive rating of 53.86 and turns it over on more than half of the possessions he uses. If VT can capitalize on his absence with a win, their tournament profile looks a lot better.

Games 2/6 - Georgia Tech over Clemson, against Florida State
The Jackets had their best offensive game of the ACC and their best since dropping 92 on Winston Salem State in the first game of the season. The Jackets went 28-45 from 2, and hit the glass for 43% of their own misses, exploiting the interior defense that has been a weakness for Clemson all season. Gani Lawal - 20 and 14, including 7 on offense - and Lewis Clinch - 32 points on 20 shots - led the way for Georgia Tech. This is their whole post-season unless they win it all - it's nice to see them get out and just play good basketball. Clemson's now allowed 7 of their last 9 opponents to score over a point per possession.

The game between FSU and Georgia Tech earlier this year was, not surprisingly, a defensive struggle. The final was 62-58 in a 70 possession game, with both teams cold from 3 (a combined 6 of 38). Toney Douglas had his second-worst game of the conference season, with "just" a 108 offensive rating, and not racking up an assist. The Noles offense is playing much better since January - 6 of the last 9 with at least a point per possession (and 2 of the other three with 0.99 points per). This game is pretty much meaningless except for FSU's ultimate seed line. Advancing to the semis, or even finals, could make the Noles a 4.

Games 3/7 - Maryland over NC State, against Wake Forest
74-69 doesn't necessarily look like an offensive shootout, but it is in a 59 possession game. NC State did their work inside (18-32 from 2, plus 18 of 33 offensive rebounds), and Maryland did theirs on the perimeter (9 of 16 from 3, 8 steals). Eric Hayes was the Terps' spark, hitting 5-6 from downtown and leading the team with 21 points off the bench. Vasquez also had a solid double-double with 17 and 10 assists (and did it efficiently!).

Now Maryland gets another crack at the Deacs. Last weekend, they had Wake Forest on the ropes, but allowed them to escape with a 65-63 win. Maryland went to the line just twice and got hammered on the glass - only some decent outside shooting and Wake Forest turnovers kept them around. Vasquez had one of those games that looks good superficially (16 points, 7 assists) until you realize it took him 24 shots and 4 turnovers to get there. Al-Farouq Aminu was huge for Wake, with a 16 point 14 rebound (6 offensive) double-double. This game means a whole lot to Maryland - with the way the rest of the bubble has been performing, a win over Wake would do a whole lot for their chances of getting a bid.

Games 4/8 - Boston College over Virginia, against Duke
BC coasted against UVA (the ACC's worst team this season, regardless of whether they got more conference wins than Georgia Tech). Rakim Sanders, who has been their best player down the stretch, was the Eagles' best again last night. BC lived on the line, scoring 31 of their 76 points at the stripe. Recognizing that the calls were coming, they focused inside, inside, inside, making just 1 three. For Virginia, Diane had a nice finish to his career, scoring 24 on just 13 shots, including 4-6 from downtown. Why Leitao didn't let him play through his struggles this season is beyond me.

Now the Eagles will get Duke, who they beat in Chestnut Hill earlier this season. BC had their best shooting game of the season by a huge margin - 22 of 33 from 2 and 8 of 18 from 3, for a .667 efg%. They hit some contested shots, but the real key to the game is that they got a lot of uncontested shots. Duke hung around in that game by hitting the glass (18 of 37 offensive rebounds) and turning BC over (19 in a 69 possession game), but hit just 3 of 16 from outside and couldn't keep up with the scoring. This was the last game before Scheyer took over the point, and Duke will be hungry to get another shot at Boston College with their new look.

SOS and Tourney Preview

Let's start with strength of schedule. Like last season, I made a full home/road adjustment, so Duke only gets credit for playing Clemson as the Tigers played at home, and only gets credit for playing Virginia as the Cavaliers played on the road. To start, here's each team's home and road efficiency numbers:

Home

Duke		18.79
North Carolina		18.12
Clemson		14.17
Wake Forest		10.78
Florida State		8.11
Miami		6.38
Maryland		0.84
Virginia Tech		-1.19
Boston College		-2.28
NC State		-3.59
Virginia		-6.11
Georgia Tech		-7.40

Road

North Carolina		8.50
Wake Forest		-0.05
Florida State		-0.31
Clemson		-0.45
Duke		-1.02
Boston College		-2.01
Miami		-6.32
Virginia Tech		-7.28
NC State		-9.14
Georgia Tech		-12.12
Virginia		-14.03
Maryland		-15.26

Remarkably this year, only one team (Carolina) was on the plus side on the road. Duke had the biggest cap between home and road performance (helped by routs of Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Virginia, hurt by the blowout at Clemson). The top 5 teams in the league were top 5 both at home and on the road, while the bottom was a little bit more spread out. Boston College was the most road immune team - actually better on the road than at home, although by an extremely small margin.

So, next up, here's what everyone's schedule looked like.
Offense (ranked by best opponent offense to worst):
Georgia Tech - 105.43
Virginia - 105.41
Florida State - 104.89
Duke - 104.83
Miami - 104.82
Wake Forest - 104.57
NC State - 103.81
Virginia Tech - 103.77
North Carolina - 103.31
Maryland - 103.30
Boston College - 102.75
Clemson - 102.07

Defense (ranked by best opponent defense to worst):
Virginia Tech - 102.86
North Carolina - 103.09
Maryland - 103.23
NC State - 103.46
Duke - 103.52
Clemson - 103.76
Wake Forest - 104.16
Boston College - 104.27
Miami - 104.59
Virginia - 104.91
Florida State - 105.02
Georgia Tech - 106.97

The Jackets' offensive futility is remarkable considering their opponents' general defensive futility. Credit goes to Carolina considering they faced one of the stronger defensive tests in the league, and still were dominant offensively (their offensive numbers were actually suppressed slightly by their schedule).

Finally, here's the schedule, by best opponent efficiency margin (so toughest opponents) to worst:
Overall
Duke - 1.31
Virginia Tech - 0.92
Virginia - 0.49
Wake Forest - 0.40
NC State - 0.36
Miami - 0.23
North Carolina - 0.21
Maryland - 0.07
Florida State - -0.12
Boston College - -1.52
Georgia Tech - -1.54
Clemson - -1.69

The schedule adjustments moved some teams around, but was not too disruptive. By raw margin, here's how the team stacked up:

UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Florida State
Miami
Boston College
Virginia Tech
NC State
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Virginia

When the strength of schedule adjustments are made, Wake and Clemson swap places, Virginia Tech and BC swap places, and Virginia and Georgia Tech swap places.

On to the tournament. As you can see from the list above, UNC actually got a tough draw out of the 8/9 game - adjusted for schedule, Miami and Virginia Tech were the 6th and 7th best teams in the ACC. Wake's draw is much more favorable - neither NC State or Maryland was one of the 8 best teams.

As you can see from the odds report below, the top 5 teams are comfortably above the rest. FSU and Clemson have lower odds of winning because they have the prospect of facing each other on Friday, but all 5 are above 47% to reach the semis and the other 7 are below 10%. So, without further ado, here's the odds (derived from a log5 analysis using pythagorean winning percentage based on schedule-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency - yike, that was a mouthful):

			Quarters	Semis	Finals	Win
1	North Carolina		100.00%	86.53%	65.53%	41.86%
3	Duke		100.00%	88.98%	61.52%	32.24%
2	Wake Forest		100.00%	84.17%	33.56%	12.87%
5	Clemson		91.08%	47.90%	14.94%	5.79%
4	Florida State		100.00%	51.22%	14.96%	5.46%
9	Miami		60.83%	9.36%	3.41%	0.89%
6	Boston College		70.68%	9.29%	2.60%	0.42%
8	Virginia Tech		39.17%	4.11%	1.11%	0.21%
10	NC State		54.41%	8.03%	1.12%	0.14%
7	Maryland		45.59%	7.81%	0.95%	0.10%
11	Virginia		29.32%	1.73%	0.26%	0.02%
12	Georgia Tech		8.92%	0.88%	0.05%	0.00%

Player Awards

This year, for the first time, I'm going to go down to three teams, because there were a ton of highly deserving players in conference this season. Actually, the player spread didn't have a lot of middle this year - there were several players at the top, and several players who did very little besides play roles. As I was writing team previews this year, I kept finding myself saying things like "they only have 3 or 4 good players, and everyone else is very, very much behind." So, without further ado, here's how my first team stacked up:

5) Jeff Teague - Wake Forest
Teague started off hot, fading a little down the stretch, but still finished with extremely strong overall numbers. He scored nearly 20 a game, dished out just over three assists, and did a fantastic job getting to the line (where he shot over 80%). Teague ended up posting a strong 116 offensive rating while using over 25% of the Deacs' possessions. On a more intangible level, Teague was the guy who gave Wake Forest its attitude and its edge. He was the best player on one of the three best teams in the conference, and he deserves first-team recognition.

4) Gerald Henderson - Duke
Henderson was the highest usage player of anyone in the ACC, using just shy of 30% of Duke's possessions while he was in the game. Like Teague, he had his peaks and valleys. When he's on, he just might be the best player in the league. There were games this year where he was unstoppable on offense. When he's off, he had a tendency to dominate the ball and get jumper happy. His offensive rating faded down the stretch - at 111.43, it's the lowest of the 5 first-teamers. Henderson's raw stats were quite strong - almost 20 and 6 per game, while turning the ball over just 16% of his possessions. Not that this counts in the award calculation, but he's also the most vicious dunker in the ACC.

3) Tyler Hansbrough - UNC
The only post player and only repeat member of this first team. Hansbrough had less impressive numbers this year than last, dropping in his field goal percentage, recording fewer double doubles, eschewing the offensive glass, and getting to the line with less frequency. I think he tried too hard to showcase a perimeter game and spent too little time doing what he does best - putting guys on his back on the blocks and scoring over, around, and through them. Still, he scored nearly 20 points a game, rarely turned the ball over (just 11.9%), and posted the second best offensive rating in the league at 126.85.

2) Tywon Lawson - UNC
Lawson was ridiculously effective on offense. He put up a 130 offensive rating on the season, combining excellent shooting (55%/45%/86%, at a total of 1.29 PPWS - best in the ACC by a wide margin) with great ball control (2.68 A/TO ratio and assists on a full third of his teammates scores, best in the league) and almost nothing negative on the offensive end. His usage is the lowest of anyone on any of the all-ACC teams, but he very clearly paces the Heels and is the key to their success. Three of his four worst performances came in UNC's three conference losses, including his only two games with offensive ratings under 100. The only thing that keeps him out of his top spot is his defense. Matadors make more of an effort to stay in front of the bull than he does with opposing point guards. Opponents have lit him up all season long. Lawson completely dominates one half of the court, but is entirely disinterested on the other. That leaves him short of POY.

1) Toney Douglas - Florida State
Everyone in the league has up and down games, but Toney Douglas managed to turn even his down games into successes. He's the only player in the league not to have multiple games with offensive ratings below 100 (80, against Duke, in the first game of the year), and only had two games below 110. Douglas did this all while being extremely high usage in every single game. He had just one game where he used fewer than 25% of FSU's possessions (a "low" 23% at Virginia) and six over 30%. For as much as he controlled the ball, he never turned it over - just 11% of his possessions (a far more impressive number for a lead guard than a post player). He led the ACC in scoring by a wide margin, and produced 30 more points than his nearest competition. Plus, he might be the best on-ball perimeter defender in the conference. Toney Douglas was a star in every game he played. He was also the best player in the ACC this season.

Second Team

6) Jack McClinton - Miami
McClinton might be the most dangerous offensive player in the conference. He had the best combination of usage and offensive rating in the conference - in any 100 team possessions, he would produce more points than any other player. McClinton was the only non Tar Heel with any meaningful production who had an offensive rating above 120. The only thing keeping him off first team is his defense, which was not quite Lawson-level bad, but still highly lacking.

7) Trevor Booker - Clemson
Booker was a beast on the defensive glass this year, pulling down nearly a quarter of opponent misses all by his lonesome. For a relatively short post player, he was also an excellent shot blocker. Booker also excelled on the offensive end of the court after a slow start to conference play. He had a stretch of seven games where he averaged a 140 offensive rating. Booker had a tendency to disappear at times - 7 games where his usage was below 20%. He needs to have a mindset to want to dominate every game, because most often, he can.

8) James Johnson - Wake Forest
Of all the big men in conference, Johnson is the best NBA prospect. He's a 6'9" forward with a guard's ball control and a nose for the ball off the glass. He can score facing up, with his back to the basket, and occasionally on the perimeter (although his 3pt shooting is still poor). Johnson scored over 15 points a game on the year on the back of stellar 63% 2pt shooting. He put up an offensive rating of 117 for the conference season, and carried Wake in some of their key wins, especially the Clemson sweep.

9) Kyle Singler - Duke
Singler is Duke's most versatile player, and among the most versatile in the league. He was the team's leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, putting up a 113 offensive rating while using 25% of possessions. After a rough three-game stretch against Virginia, Clemson, and Miami, Singler finished strong, playing key roles in the victories over FSU and Virginia Tech. He has a tendency to be turnover prone (they come in bunches - 9 games with 0 or 1, 5 games with 4 or more); if he can control that, he can really dominate.

10) AD Vassallo - Virginia Tech
As recently as three games ago, I would have put Malcolm Delaney in this spot. But in the second half of the season, Vassallo played far stronger. Against Duke and UNC, he scored 51 points, hitting 22 of 38 shots (including 7 of 16 threes). Plus, I have a soft spot for seniors. Vassallo was a solid 36% from beyond the arc on 100 attempts, scored just over 19 a game, and put up a very solid 116 offensive rating.

Third Team

11) Greivis Vasquez - Maryland
12) Wayne Ellington - UNC
13) Tyrese Rice - Boston College
14) Malcolm Delaney - Virginia Tech
15) Jon Scheyer - Duke

Honorable Mention: Danny Green, KC Rivers, Sylven Landesberg, Gani Lawal, Rakim Sanders.