Tempo-free stats have been updated for games of this weekend. I haven't watched the FSU game yet (it's DVR'ed), but as soon as I get to it, I'll put up the efficiency numbers for that game.
As a general note, I'm ridiculously busy for the next week, so probably the only things you'll hear from me this week are the FSU and UNC game efficiency recaps. Things will settle down a little next week and my posting will be back to normal.
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Duke 83, Boston College 81
Here's the table from last night's game...
A couple interesting points from this - first, the defense was substantially better when we had Nelson and Melchionni on the floor. The former doesn't surprise me, but the latter always does. This isn't the first time the defense has been quite a bit better with Lee on the floor as opposed to off. In fact, we've been better defensively when he's on the court in every game I've charted except Maryland (and we sported a .79 ppp when he was on the floor in that game). To me, this defies visual observation - Lee always seems a step slow on defense, which by extension would put more pressure on the other four players to cover his weaknesses, which would create more offensive opportunities. If anyone has any thoughts on why we seem to be better when Lee's on the floor, I'd love to hear them. Here's one idea, backed by zero empirical research - when he comes off the bench, he comes into the game when the other team has their bench players in as well. These players, on the whole, do not execute as well offensively as the starters, hence it's "easier" defense against those players. Like I said, this is pure speculation (though supported by that statistics from our end in this game - the team had a ppp below 1 when they were on the court, and above it for the other five players), but I'm really confused as to why the person who appears to be one of our worst defenders is continually on court when Duke plays its best defense.
Also, the trend I pointed out last time (offensive discrepancy when Paulus is on and off court) continued again - 75 points in 61 possessions while on the court, and only 8 in 14 possessions while off. The margin tonight was an astounding .66 points per possession, and on the season it's now .38 ppp - so when he's on the bench, we score slightly more than one point fewer every three possessions. Even though he wasn't very visible in the scorebook (1 point, 3 assists), his presence on the court was once again important in the end result.
A couple general thoughts on the game. This should have been an absolute blowout. From my best recollection, we lost no fewer than 6, and probably closer to 10 very easy assisted baskets because players either missed wide open shots (Lee, Dock) or failed to catch the ball (Shelden, at least twice). The box score says BC played good field goal defense, but the tape says that, at least for the first 30 minutes, it wasn't because they were pressuring shooters into bad looks. Now, once we went into the spread, BC's defense got a lot better. This is no surprise - when the offense becomes less aggressive, it becomes easier for a defense to maintain their position. Here's my comment on the spread - it becomes very difficult to maintain intensity when a team changes its pace from frenetic to very slow. We did well for the first 30 minutes because we played aggressive, high energy basketball. When your offense is applying constant pressure, it's easier to apply that same pressure on the defensive end - it's just maintaining a steady energy level on both sides of the ball. Once the spread is called for, the energy level naturally drops - it's tough to play a high-energy, intense four corners. When the energy and intensity drop on the offensive side, it's tough to just turn it back on down at the defensive end of the court. I think that's why it looked like we were back on our heels on defense at the end of the game - we were deliberately trying to take the intensity out of the game on the offensive side, and it allowed BC to seize control of the energy, and thus the momentum. Now, we win more often than we lose when we go into the spread, and lots of times its because the opponents are deflated by the time we get there, and can't ratchet the energy back up. But BC did last night, bolstered by the crowd and some big shots, and if the game had gone 60 seconds longer, we probably lose.
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 61 | 1.23 | 60.5 | 1.17 |
| Paulus-off | 14 | .57 | 14.5 | .69 |
| Redick-on | 75 | 1.11 | 75 | 1.08 |
| Redick-off | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dockery-on | 60 | 1.12 | 57.5 | 1.17 |
| Dockery-off | 15 | 1.07 | 17.5 | .80 |
| McRoberts-on | 42 | 1.24 | 43 | 1.21 |
| McRoberts-off | 33 | .94 | 32 | .91 |
| Williams-on | 69.5 | 1.09 | 70 | 1.06 |
| Williams-off | 5.5 | 1.27 | 5 | 1.40 |
| Melchionni-on | 34.5 | .99 | 35 | .89 |
| Melchionni-off | 40.5 | 1.21 | 40 | 1.25 |
| Nelson-on | 30.5 | .79 | 34 | .85 |
| Nelson-off | 44.5 | 1.33 | 41 | 1.27 |
| Team Totals | 75 | 1.107 | 75 | 1.08 |
A couple interesting points from this - first, the defense was substantially better when we had Nelson and Melchionni on the floor. The former doesn't surprise me, but the latter always does. This isn't the first time the defense has been quite a bit better with Lee on the floor as opposed to off. In fact, we've been better defensively when he's on the court in every game I've charted except Maryland (and we sported a .79 ppp when he was on the floor in that game). To me, this defies visual observation - Lee always seems a step slow on defense, which by extension would put more pressure on the other four players to cover his weaknesses, which would create more offensive opportunities. If anyone has any thoughts on why we seem to be better when Lee's on the floor, I'd love to hear them. Here's one idea, backed by zero empirical research - when he comes off the bench, he comes into the game when the other team has their bench players in as well. These players, on the whole, do not execute as well offensively as the starters, hence it's "easier" defense against those players. Like I said, this is pure speculation (though supported by that statistics from our end in this game - the team had a ppp below 1 when they were on the court, and above it for the other five players), but I'm really confused as to why the person who appears to be one of our worst defenders is continually on court when Duke plays its best defense.
Also, the trend I pointed out last time (offensive discrepancy when Paulus is on and off court) continued again - 75 points in 61 possessions while on the court, and only 8 in 14 possessions while off. The margin tonight was an astounding .66 points per possession, and on the season it's now .38 ppp - so when he's on the bench, we score slightly more than one point fewer every three possessions. Even though he wasn't very visible in the scorebook (1 point, 3 assists), his presence on the court was once again important in the end result.
A couple general thoughts on the game. This should have been an absolute blowout. From my best recollection, we lost no fewer than 6, and probably closer to 10 very easy assisted baskets because players either missed wide open shots (Lee, Dock) or failed to catch the ball (Shelden, at least twice). The box score says BC played good field goal defense, but the tape says that, at least for the first 30 minutes, it wasn't because they were pressuring shooters into bad looks. Now, once we went into the spread, BC's defense got a lot better. This is no surprise - when the offense becomes less aggressive, it becomes easier for a defense to maintain their position. Here's my comment on the spread - it becomes very difficult to maintain intensity when a team changes its pace from frenetic to very slow. We did well for the first 30 minutes because we played aggressive, high energy basketball. When your offense is applying constant pressure, it's easier to apply that same pressure on the defensive end - it's just maintaining a steady energy level on both sides of the ball. Once the spread is called for, the energy level naturally drops - it's tough to play a high-energy, intense four corners. When the energy and intensity drop on the offensive side, it's tough to just turn it back on down at the defensive end of the court. I think that's why it looked like we were back on our heels on defense at the end of the game - we were deliberately trying to take the intensity out of the game on the offensive side, and it allowed BC to seize control of the energy, and thus the momentum. Now, we win more often than we lose when we go into the spread, and lots of times its because the opponents are deflated by the time we get there, and can't ratchet the energy back up. But BC did last night, bolstered by the crowd and some big shots, and if the game had gone 60 seconds longer, we probably lose.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Duke BC Preview
First, I am now officially (for the first time probably ever) a guest commentator. Hit the link for my responses to three question about tonight's game posed by an Eagle fan.
That done, let's take a look at tonight's game. Both teams execute very well offensively - Duke is 2nd in the conference, BC 4th. Contributing to the execution of both teams on the offensive end is very good team passing - BC is second in the conference, and Duke 3rd, in assisted basket ratio. BC also takes care of the ball very well, which makes their offensive efficiency numbers higher than any of their shooting numbers. Of course, what BC does well on offense is what Duke does exceptionally well on defense. Duke is well ahead of the rest of the league in opponent's assisted basket ratio because they get out and pressure the passing lanes so well (this also contributes to their conference lead in steal percentage). If Duke can deny the Eagles the ability to get assisted baskets (which more often than not are better or easier looks than non-assisted baskets), they'll likely do well, because as a shooting team, BC is quite average - 4th in 2pt% and just 10th in 3pt%. Of course, BC will hit the glass hard - they snag 40% of their own missed shots this year, and as we all know, Duke isn't exactly stellar at controlling the defensive glass.
But the real key tonight (as I mentioned on the Eagle blog) is whether BC decides it wants to make a commitment to defense. This team last year defined itself by hard-nosed defensive play, and this year the effort just isn't there. Witness rebounding - there's no way a team that is as good on the offensive glass as BC should be last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage, but they are. And their shooting defense is just bad - last in eFG%, last in PPWS, 9th in 2pt%, and last in 3pt%. If this doesn't change, they won't win tonight, and they'll be no better than a .500 team in conference and a first round exit in March. There are several reasons to think that, tonight at least, their defense could be better. First, their problems rebounding could be negated, because Duke has been a pretty poor offensive rebounding team. Second, they are good at forcing turnovers, and hanging on to the ball has been somewhat of an issue for Duke (15 or more turnovers in 5 of 7 conference games). And finally, some defensive problems can be fixed by simply upping the intensity level, and BC's should be about at its peak tonight - it's their first chance to host the undisputed best team in the conference on their home court, and a chance to show that they're better than they've played so far this year. If they come out and make a commitment to playing defense, this game should go right down to the wire.
That done, let's take a look at tonight's game. Both teams execute very well offensively - Duke is 2nd in the conference, BC 4th. Contributing to the execution of both teams on the offensive end is very good team passing - BC is second in the conference, and Duke 3rd, in assisted basket ratio. BC also takes care of the ball very well, which makes their offensive efficiency numbers higher than any of their shooting numbers. Of course, what BC does well on offense is what Duke does exceptionally well on defense. Duke is well ahead of the rest of the league in opponent's assisted basket ratio because they get out and pressure the passing lanes so well (this also contributes to their conference lead in steal percentage). If Duke can deny the Eagles the ability to get assisted baskets (which more often than not are better or easier looks than non-assisted baskets), they'll likely do well, because as a shooting team, BC is quite average - 4th in 2pt% and just 10th in 3pt%. Of course, BC will hit the glass hard - they snag 40% of their own missed shots this year, and as we all know, Duke isn't exactly stellar at controlling the defensive glass.
But the real key tonight (as I mentioned on the Eagle blog) is whether BC decides it wants to make a commitment to defense. This team last year defined itself by hard-nosed defensive play, and this year the effort just isn't there. Witness rebounding - there's no way a team that is as good on the offensive glass as BC should be last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage, but they are. And their shooting defense is just bad - last in eFG%, last in PPWS, 9th in 2pt%, and last in 3pt%. If this doesn't change, they won't win tonight, and they'll be no better than a .500 team in conference and a first round exit in March. There are several reasons to think that, tonight at least, their defense could be better. First, their problems rebounding could be negated, because Duke has been a pretty poor offensive rebounding team. Second, they are good at forcing turnovers, and hanging on to the ball has been somewhat of an issue for Duke (15 or more turnovers in 5 of 7 conference games). And finally, some defensive problems can be fixed by simply upping the intensity level, and BC's should be about at its peak tonight - it's their first chance to host the undisputed best team in the conference on their home court, and a chance to show that they're better than they've played so far this year. If they come out and make a commitment to playing defense, this game should go right down to the wire.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
What to Watch For - 1/31/06
Kind of an interesting slate tonight - only 11 games being played in the country, but 5 involved ranked teams. With that in mind, several previews:
1) Pitt at UCONN - honestly, I think Pitt is overrated, but I sure hope they pick up the road win tonight. Heart says yet, brain says no. UCONN is more efficient on offense, more efficient on defense, and just better with Williams on the court.
2) Illinois at Wisconsin - UW was cock of the walk in the big ten for a while, but then got deflated with the shocking loss to ND State, and a road loss at Crisler more recently. These are now two of the four 5-2 teams at the top of the Big Televen standings. As bad as they've looked lately, I'll stick with Wisconsin at home (where they've been very tough) over Illinois on the road (where they've been, um, not so tough).
3) Florida at Mississippi - Mississippi is floating around on the bubble talk (partially because no one can believe that only three or four SEC teams might make the tournament) and a win over a top-10 opponent would do a lot to boost their cause. Florida has shown struggles on the road this year, dropping to both Tennessee (understandable) and South Carolina (not so much). Still, they have so much more talent than the Rebels that they should reverse the road woes, and send Ole Miss back to thinking NIT.
4) ACC previews - wow, it's a rough conference slate when Miami is by far the best of the 4 teams playing tonight. Miami and Wake are actually pretty similar in most respects - they're good rebounding teams, middle of the pack shooters, don't defend the arc well, etc. But Miami is better on both sides of the ball handling game - they turn the ball over less, and force more turnovers. Expect that result to continue on the home court tonight. Honestly, I'm officially giving up on Wake. Who knew at the beginning of the year this year that Cameron Stanley and Kevin Swinton (two heavily hyped recruits) would be completely non-existent? Who knew that Michael Drum would be expected to play meaningful minutes in ACC games? Chris Paul made up for a whole lot of defensive shortcomings, and without him, the team will continually be coming up short. The other game on the docket tonight is the battle of the Techs in Blacksburg. I'll say this - Georgia Tech just hasn't played hard this year, and Virginia Tech has. This is a totally subjective comment (and thus one I'm not usually given to making) but when talent is lacking, you have to win on effort, and GT hasn't shown it. For those of you who want numbers, here you go - VT forces turnovers (tops in the conference at just shy of 1 every 4 possessions) and Georgia Tech coughs it up (slightly more than 1 every four possessions). Much like Wake-Miami, this should be the key difference between the teams tonight - it'll let VT get several points in transition and make up for a half court offense that is truly bad (97.06 ORtg, even with all the free looks they get off turnovers).
1) Pitt at UCONN - honestly, I think Pitt is overrated, but I sure hope they pick up the road win tonight. Heart says yet, brain says no. UCONN is more efficient on offense, more efficient on defense, and just better with Williams on the court.
2) Illinois at Wisconsin - UW was cock of the walk in the big ten for a while, but then got deflated with the shocking loss to ND State, and a road loss at Crisler more recently. These are now two of the four 5-2 teams at the top of the Big Televen standings. As bad as they've looked lately, I'll stick with Wisconsin at home (where they've been very tough) over Illinois on the road (where they've been, um, not so tough).
3) Florida at Mississippi - Mississippi is floating around on the bubble talk (partially because no one can believe that only three or four SEC teams might make the tournament) and a win over a top-10 opponent would do a lot to boost their cause. Florida has shown struggles on the road this year, dropping to both Tennessee (understandable) and South Carolina (not so much). Still, they have so much more talent than the Rebels that they should reverse the road woes, and send Ole Miss back to thinking NIT.
4) ACC previews - wow, it's a rough conference slate when Miami is by far the best of the 4 teams playing tonight. Miami and Wake are actually pretty similar in most respects - they're good rebounding teams, middle of the pack shooters, don't defend the arc well, etc. But Miami is better on both sides of the ball handling game - they turn the ball over less, and force more turnovers. Expect that result to continue on the home court tonight. Honestly, I'm officially giving up on Wake. Who knew at the beginning of the year this year that Cameron Stanley and Kevin Swinton (two heavily hyped recruits) would be completely non-existent? Who knew that Michael Drum would be expected to play meaningful minutes in ACC games? Chris Paul made up for a whole lot of defensive shortcomings, and without him, the team will continually be coming up short. The other game on the docket tonight is the battle of the Techs in Blacksburg. I'll say this - Georgia Tech just hasn't played hard this year, and Virginia Tech has. This is a totally subjective comment (and thus one I'm not usually given to making) but when talent is lacking, you have to win on effort, and GT hasn't shown it. For those of you who want numbers, here you go - VT forces turnovers (tops in the conference at just shy of 1 every 4 possessions) and Georgia Tech coughs it up (slightly more than 1 every four possessions). Much like Wake-Miami, this should be the key difference between the teams tonight - it'll let VT get several points in transition and make up for a half court offense that is truly bad (97.06 ORtg, even with all the free looks they get off turnovers).
Monday, January 30, 2006
What to Watch For - 1/30/06
First and foremost, the tempo free stats are updated. Use the links over on the sidebar and stat yourself silly.
I'm not going to lie, tonight's action is, well, mismatched is a diplomatic way to put it. A whole lot of top of conference opponents are going against a whole lot of bottom of conference opponents. There is one "heavyweight" match though, down in the OVC, as the two conference leaders square off in Murray, Kentucky. Samford handed Murray State its first conference loss of the season in the first meeting between the two at Samford. In a pace the Mid-Majority describes as excruciating, Samford executed exceptionally well on offense, getting 61 points in just 48.4 possessions (and proving the value of tempo free stats - the casual observer would see a 61-50 final score and think, defensive slugfest. Not so! Samford had a 126.1 ORtg, a .682 eFG%, and 1.32 PPWS. But I digress). This has been the MO of the Bulldogs from Birmingham all year - they play the 5th slowest pace in the country, at 57.2 poss/game, but execute extremely well in those possessions, with a 110.2 ORtg that's good for 1st in the conference and 38th in the country. Murray State, by contrast, has been getting it done with defense, sporting a conference leading 98.4 DRtg. Should be a dogfight up in Kentucky tonight. So if you happen to live in an area where this game is being broadcast, watch it. Otherwise, I suggest passing on ESPN's slate (a blowout in the making in Nova-Louisville, and an uninspiring Texas Tech-Kansas matchup), and maybe watch some 24.
I'm not going to lie, tonight's action is, well, mismatched is a diplomatic way to put it. A whole lot of top of conference opponents are going against a whole lot of bottom of conference opponents. There is one "heavyweight" match though, down in the OVC, as the two conference leaders square off in Murray, Kentucky. Samford handed Murray State its first conference loss of the season in the first meeting between the two at Samford. In a pace the Mid-Majority describes as excruciating, Samford executed exceptionally well on offense, getting 61 points in just 48.4 possessions (and proving the value of tempo free stats - the casual observer would see a 61-50 final score and think, defensive slugfest. Not so! Samford had a 126.1 ORtg, a .682 eFG%, and 1.32 PPWS. But I digress). This has been the MO of the Bulldogs from Birmingham all year - they play the 5th slowest pace in the country, at 57.2 poss/game, but execute extremely well in those possessions, with a 110.2 ORtg that's good for 1st in the conference and 38th in the country. Murray State, by contrast, has been getting it done with defense, sporting a conference leading 98.4 DRtg. Should be a dogfight up in Kentucky tonight. So if you happen to live in an area where this game is being broadcast, watch it. Otherwise, I suggest passing on ESPN's slate (a blowout in the making in Nova-Louisville, and an uninspiring Texas Tech-Kansas matchup), and maybe watch some 24.
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Duke 82, Virginia 63
Here's the chart from tonight's game against the Cavs:
Williams had a fantastic game - for those of you scoring at home, that's 8-1 UVA while he was on the bench, and 81-55 Duke the rest of the time. Note that the offense also (unsurprisingly) struggles a bit with Redick on the bench - only 6 points in 10 possessions tonight, and in the 5 games I've charted the difference is 1.18 against .78 (though that .78 is a pretty small sample size at just 23 offensive possessions). But I want to talk about Greg Paulus. Paulus has been getting a lot of flak for his turnovers, which are admittedly high. Of course, he helps offset that by leading the conference in assists. But what shocked me when I was putting together these numbers tonight was that the team has the best offensive efficiency (again, just in the 5 I've charted) when Paulus is on the floor. The team converts at a 1.20 ppp when Greg is manning the point, which is better than the team's ppp with any other player. Now, am I saying that if I had to choose one guy between Redick or Paulus to be on the court, I'd take Paulus? Of course not. But he's a big part of the reason that the offense has been running as smoothly as it has been, and the numbers prove that out. Yes, he makes freshman mistakes. But he also makes some brilliant plays - witness the running bounce pass to Nelson that was perfectly on his hands and the thread-the-needle-between-three-defenders bounce pass to Williams in the post. So take any criticism of him you read with a grain of salt, because I certainly don't think this offense would be better with someone else running the point.
As for the game, each half was itself a story of halves - Duke won the first half of each half by very large margins, but sort of hit cruise control in the latter 10 minutes and gave up easy scores to Virginia. I don't have it by the clock, but by possessions, the scores look like this: 1st 1/2 of the first half: 20-8 Duke (1.11ppp to .42)
2nd 1/2 of the first half:16-15 UVA (.94 to .83)
1st 1/2 of the second half: 29-14 Duke (1.71 to .875)
2nd 1/2 of the second half: 25-18 UVA (1.56 to 1.12)
Now, outscoring them by a combined 27 points in each first half obviously put the game out of reach, but it wasn't fun watching us play sloppy ball at the end of the first half, and it certainly wasn't fun watching a poor offensive team score almost at will in the second half (yes, a lot of their 2nd half offense was free throws, but usually you get free throws when you beat the defense and force a foul to prevent a made basket). There was a lot of good in this game (general offensive execution, JJ, early intensity, JJ, Shelden, ball movement, and, oh yeah, JJ) but there was also plenty that needs to be fixed (turnovers, sustained intensity, holding and expanding leads). We'll need to keep up the good and fix some of the bad for the game at BC this Wednesday.
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 55.5 | 1.32 | 56 | .84 |
| Paulus-off | 13.5 | .67 | 12 | 1.33 |
| Redick-on | 59 | 1.29 | 58.5 | .91 |
| Redick-off | 10 | .60 | 9.5 | 1.05 |
| Dockery-on | 49 | 1.18 | 49.5 | .95 |
| Dockery-off | 20 | 1.20 | 18.5 | .86 |
| McRoberts-on | 37.5 | 1.07 | 37.5 | .91 |
| McRoberts-off | 31.5 | 1.33 | 30.5 | .95 |
| Williams-on | 62 | 1.31 | 61 | .90 |
| Williams-off | 7 | .14 | 7 | 1.14 |
| Melchionni-on | 33.5 | 1.28 | 34.5 | .90 |
| Melchionni-off | 35.5 | 1.10 | 33.5 | .96 |
| Nelson-on | 36.5 | 1.01 | 34.5 | .99 |
| Nelson-off | 32.5 | 1.38 | 33.5 | .87 |
| Pocius-on | 5 | .4 | 63.5 | .90 |
| Pocius-off | 64 | 1.25 | 4.5 | 1.33 |
| Boykin-on | 3 | .00 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Boykin-off | 66 | 1.24 | 66 | .89 |
| Boateng-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Boateng-off | 67 | 1.22 | 67 | .91 |
| J. Davidson-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| J. Davidson-off | 67 | 1.22 | 67 | .91 |
| Team Totals | 69 | 1.188 | 68 | .926 |
Williams had a fantastic game - for those of you scoring at home, that's 8-1 UVA while he was on the bench, and 81-55 Duke the rest of the time. Note that the offense also (unsurprisingly) struggles a bit with Redick on the bench - only 6 points in 10 possessions tonight, and in the 5 games I've charted the difference is 1.18 against .78 (though that .78 is a pretty small sample size at just 23 offensive possessions). But I want to talk about Greg Paulus. Paulus has been getting a lot of flak for his turnovers, which are admittedly high. Of course, he helps offset that by leading the conference in assists. But what shocked me when I was putting together these numbers tonight was that the team has the best offensive efficiency (again, just in the 5 I've charted) when Paulus is on the floor. The team converts at a 1.20 ppp when Greg is manning the point, which is better than the team's ppp with any other player. Now, am I saying that if I had to choose one guy between Redick or Paulus to be on the court, I'd take Paulus? Of course not. But he's a big part of the reason that the offense has been running as smoothly as it has been, and the numbers prove that out. Yes, he makes freshman mistakes. But he also makes some brilliant plays - witness the running bounce pass to Nelson that was perfectly on his hands and the thread-the-needle-between-three-defenders bounce pass to Williams in the post. So take any criticism of him you read with a grain of salt, because I certainly don't think this offense would be better with someone else running the point.
As for the game, each half was itself a story of halves - Duke won the first half of each half by very large margins, but sort of hit cruise control in the latter 10 minutes and gave up easy scores to Virginia. I don't have it by the clock, but by possessions, the scores look like this: 1st 1/2 of the first half: 20-8 Duke (1.11ppp to .42)
2nd 1/2 of the first half:16-15 UVA (.94 to .83)
1st 1/2 of the second half: 29-14 Duke (1.71 to .875)
2nd 1/2 of the second half: 25-18 UVA (1.56 to 1.12)
Now, outscoring them by a combined 27 points in each first half obviously put the game out of reach, but it wasn't fun watching us play sloppy ball at the end of the first half, and it certainly wasn't fun watching a poor offensive team score almost at will in the second half (yes, a lot of their 2nd half offense was free throws, but usually you get free throws when you beat the defense and force a foul to prevent a made basket). There was a lot of good in this game (general offensive execution, JJ, early intensity, JJ, Shelden, ball movement, and, oh yeah, JJ) but there was also plenty that needs to be fixed (turnovers, sustained intensity, holding and expanding leads). We'll need to keep up the good and fix some of the bad for the game at BC this Wednesday.
Duke-UVA Preview
I've gotten to see an awful lot of UVA this year, being up in Charlottesville, and it's been very easy to see that their recent conference success has been the result of two things - commitment to defense, and control of the boards. Virginia has the conference's second best in-conference defensive efficiency, and is the best team in the league in terms of shot defense - 1st in eFG%, 3pt%, PPWS, and 4th in 2pt%. Their defense of choice has been the 2-3, with a healthy amount of 2-3 matchup mixed in (so it looks a lot like a 3-2 sometimes, depending on the way the opponent's space the floor). However, since they sit back in the zone, they don't force a lot of turnovers (18.4%, 9th in conference). Duke should be able to get a lot of shots against the zone, and with the Devils' shooting proficiency, will probably get plenty of points. Singletary and Reynolds are both quick enough to harass perimeter shooters, and Mikalauskas, Cain, and (to a lesser extent) Soroye are solid on the inside. Soroye has been starting at center, but he plays fewer minutes than Mikalauskas, and the Cavs have been a lot better this year when the big Lithuanian is on the floor. He and Cain are very good offensive rebounders - in fact, their numbers alone (they grab 28.4% of Virginia's missed shots while they're on the floor) are better than Duke's (just 28.2%).
The offense, however, is another story. Well, let's not mince words - it's really bad. They never seem to be in sync - neither Soroye nor Mikalauskas really knows what to do in the post, Adrian Joseph is an O'Kelley-esque gunner who probably shoots on at least half the touches he gets, and Singletary, as exciting as he can be to watch, makes some unbelievable atrocious decisions. Against Miami on Tuesday, in the first minute or so, he did a 360 dribble into a triple team, left his feet, and dumped the ball off to an empty space on the court that no teammate was within 8 feet of. That being said, he can do some pretty amazing things when he's on. In the second half against Miami he was on fire - with Reynolds hurt and Cain on the bench with 4 fouls, he simply took the game over. He's very quick with the ball, and may find success penetrating on Duke. But he's still not as polished a point as he could be - he turns the ball over a lot (22.8% of his possessions used) and despite leading the team in scoring, he's only 5th on the team in offensive rating and 4th in eFG%.
Virginia has had a nice run so far, but it's generally been against the poorer teams in conference - they sport wins over Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, and UNC. Their next four are at Duke, at NC State, home v. Wake, and at Maryland. Really only the Wake game looks winnable, and that's no guarantee. They're about to slide back to a record that's much closer to the pre-season predictions, and it'll start with a loss to the Devils tonight. Best case scenario - they hold on to the ball, keep the possessions low, and get a lot of offensive rebounds to make up for the shots they miss. Even then, they probably won't hold Duke under 65, and I'm not sure they can score that much tonight.
The offense, however, is another story. Well, let's not mince words - it's really bad. They never seem to be in sync - neither Soroye nor Mikalauskas really knows what to do in the post, Adrian Joseph is an O'Kelley-esque gunner who probably shoots on at least half the touches he gets, and Singletary, as exciting as he can be to watch, makes some unbelievable atrocious decisions. Against Miami on Tuesday, in the first minute or so, he did a 360 dribble into a triple team, left his feet, and dumped the ball off to an empty space on the court that no teammate was within 8 feet of. That being said, he can do some pretty amazing things when he's on. In the second half against Miami he was on fire - with Reynolds hurt and Cain on the bench with 4 fouls, he simply took the game over. He's very quick with the ball, and may find success penetrating on Duke. But he's still not as polished a point as he could be - he turns the ball over a lot (22.8% of his possessions used) and despite leading the team in scoring, he's only 5th on the team in offensive rating and 4th in eFG%.
Virginia has had a nice run so far, but it's generally been against the poorer teams in conference - they sport wins over Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, and UNC. Their next four are at Duke, at NC State, home v. Wake, and at Maryland. Really only the Wake game looks winnable, and that's no guarantee. They're about to slide back to a record that's much closer to the pre-season predictions, and it'll start with a loss to the Devils tonight. Best case scenario - they hold on to the ball, keep the possessions low, and get a lot of offensive rebounds to make up for the shots they miss. Even then, they probably won't hold Duke under 65, and I'm not sure they can score that much tonight.
Friday, January 27, 2006
So here's the on court/off court player-by-player efficiency chart for last night's game:
Josh played a really nice game for us - 4-6 from the floor, 7 boards (2 offensive) and 4 assists, and it showed in the stats. Both the offense and defense functioned better when he was on the court. DeMarcus gave us 16 very valuable defensive minutes - in that time, Tech scored just 24 points (compared to 43 in 24 minutes when he was off). Both he and Lee looked a step or so slow on offense, but it didn't show too badly on defense - Nelson was hassling their guards all over the perimeter. I posted yesterday that I thought Duke would try and bomb Tech out of the building from outside. For the first minute or so of the game, it looked like that would be the case. But when a few shots didn't fall for Redick, they committed to going inside to Williams, and the big man responded with a monster game - 24 and 15. A couple trends I pointed out yesterday did continue - Tech did a good job protecting the ball (just 9 turnovers on 72 possessions, or 12.5% TO percentage), and Duke gave up very few points from the line and beyond the arc (just 19 of 67), meaning Virginia Tech got 71.7% of its points off 2 point field goals. Also, after getting torched on the pass by Georgetown, the AB ratio returned to ACC norms - VT got just 33% of its baskets off assists, keeping the average for Duke conference opponents down in the 30s for the year. Still not a great job on the glass - Virginia Tech's OR% wasn't fantastic, at 36%, but considering they were last in the league coming in, it's kind of disappointing. All in all, I was still a little surprised at the effort - there were stretches where we looked flat, and seemed content to play down to VPI. Still, a win's a win, and a road win's even better. Hopefully I'll get the chance to put up a full preview of Duke-UVA for tomorrow, but I probably won't have any additional information on games to watch for (so you all can just scour the schedule and standings and find one that looks interesting for your own selves).
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 57 | 1.19 | 55 | 1.00 |
| Paulus-off | 16 | .75 | 17 | .71 |
| Redick-on | 66 | 1.09 | 67 | .90 |
| Redick-off | 7 | 1.14 | 5 | 1.40 |
| Dockery-on | 63.5 | 1.10 | 63.5 | .98 |
| Dockery-off | 9.5 | 1.05 | 8.5 | .59 |
| McRoberts-on | 50.5 | 1.13 | 51.5 | .83 |
| McRoberts-off | 22.5 | 1.02 | 20.5 | 1.17 |
| Williams-on | 54 | 1.19 | 54 | .98 |
| Williams-off | 19 | .84 | 18 | .78 |
| Melchionni-on | 39.5 | .99 | 34.5 | .90 |
| Melchionni-off | 33.5 | 1.22 | 37.5 | .96 |
| Nelson-on | 32.5 | .92 | 30.5 | .79 |
| Nelson-off | 40.5 | 1.23 | 41.5 | 1.04 |
| Boykin-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Boykin-off | 71 | 1.13 | 71 | .92 |
| Team Totals | 73 | 1.096 | 72 | .931 |
Josh played a really nice game for us - 4-6 from the floor, 7 boards (2 offensive) and 4 assists, and it showed in the stats. Both the offense and defense functioned better when he was on the court. DeMarcus gave us 16 very valuable defensive minutes - in that time, Tech scored just 24 points (compared to 43 in 24 minutes when he was off). Both he and Lee looked a step or so slow on offense, but it didn't show too badly on defense - Nelson was hassling their guards all over the perimeter. I posted yesterday that I thought Duke would try and bomb Tech out of the building from outside. For the first minute or so of the game, it looked like that would be the case. But when a few shots didn't fall for Redick, they committed to going inside to Williams, and the big man responded with a monster game - 24 and 15. A couple trends I pointed out yesterday did continue - Tech did a good job protecting the ball (just 9 turnovers on 72 possessions, or 12.5% TO percentage), and Duke gave up very few points from the line and beyond the arc (just 19 of 67), meaning Virginia Tech got 71.7% of its points off 2 point field goals. Also, after getting torched on the pass by Georgetown, the AB ratio returned to ACC norms - VT got just 33% of its baskets off assists, keeping the average for Duke conference opponents down in the 30s for the year. Still not a great job on the glass - Virginia Tech's OR% wasn't fantastic, at 36%, but considering they were last in the league coming in, it's kind of disappointing. All in all, I was still a little surprised at the effort - there were stretches where we looked flat, and seemed content to play down to VPI. Still, a win's a win, and a road win's even better. Hopefully I'll get the chance to put up a full preview of Duke-UVA for tomorrow, but I probably won't have any additional information on games to watch for (so you all can just scour the schedule and standings and find one that looks interesting for your own selves).
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