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At the end of last season, I took a look at Duke's shot distribution, and their success with each "type" of shot. The shots we have are 3pointer, dunk, layup, tip-in, and 2-point jumper. I noted that FG% on 2-point jumpers is usually bad (worse even than on 3pt shots), and thus teams should look to maximize dunks, layups, tip-ins, and 3s. Here's how Duke players (and the team as a whole) are dividing up their shots, and how they're doing on those shots (current through Michigan):
| FGM | FGA |
| 2M | 2A |
| 3M | 3A |
| DM | DA |
| LM | LA |
| TM | TA |
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| Henderson | 46 | 99 | 46.5 | 39 | 82 | 47.6 | 7 | 17 | 41.2 | 9 | 11 | 81.8 | 9 | 24 | 37.5 |
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| #DIV/0! |
| Nelson | 39 | 84 | 46.4 | 31 | 62 | 50.0 | 8 | 22 | 36.4 | 8 | 10 | 80.0 | 15 | 27 | 55.6 |
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| #DIV/0! |
| Singler | 41 | 72 | 56.9 | 31 | 46 | 67.4 | 10 | 26 | 38.5 | 3 | 3 | 100.0 | 22 | 29 | 75.9 | 2 | 2 | 100.0 |
| King | 34 | 68 | 50.0 | 11 | 19 | 57.9 | 23 | 49 | 46.9 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 6 | 6 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
| Scheyer | 29 | 60 | 48.3 | 15 | 32 | 46.9 | 14 | 28 | 50.0 |
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| #DIV/0! | 4 | 10 | 40.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
| Paulus | 27 | 58 | 46.6 | 9 | 19 | 47.4 | 18 | 39 | 46.2 |
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| #DIV/0! | 6 | 7 | 85.7 |
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| #DIV/0! |
| Smith | 19 | 39 | 48.7 | 15 | 26 | 57.7 | 4 | 13 | 30.8 | 2 | 2 | 100.0 | 11 | 20 | 55.0 |
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| #DIV/0! |
| Thomas | 16 | 28 | 57.1 | 16 | 28 | 57.1 |
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| #DIV/0! | 5 | 5 | 100.0 | 9 | 14 | 64.3 |
| 1 | 0.0 |
| Zoubek | 15 | 24 | 62.5 | 15 | 24 | 62.5 |
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| #DIV/0! |
| 1 | 0.0 | 11 | 14 | 78.6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0 |
| Pocius | 5 | 13 | 38.5 | 3 | 5 | 60.0 | 2 | 8 | 25.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 |
| 1 | 0.0 |
| Davidson | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
| 1 | 0.0 |
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| #DIV/0! |
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| #DIV/0! |
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| #DIV/0! |
| McClure | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
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| #DIV/0! |
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| #DIV/0! | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
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| #DIV/0! |
| 273 | 548 | 49.8 | 187 | 345 | 54.2 | 86 | 203 | 42.4 | 29 | 34 | 85.3 | 95 | 154 | 61.7 | 6 | 8 | 75.0 |
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| DLM | DLA |
| DLTM | DLTA |
| O2M | O2A |
| NDM | NDA |
| JM | JA |
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| Henderson | 18 | 35 | 51.4 | 18 | 35 | 51.4 | 21 | 47 | 44.7 | 37 | 88 | 42.0 | 28 | 64 | 43.8 |
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| Nelson | 23 | 37 | 62.2 | 23 | 37 | 62.2 | 8 | 25 | 32.0 | 31 | 74 | 41.9 | 16 | 47 | 34.0 |
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| Singler | 25 | 32 | 78.1 | 27 | 34 | 79.4 | 4 | 12 | 33.3 | 38 | 69 | 55.1 | 14 | 38 | 36.8 |
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| King | 7 | 7 | 100.0 | 8 | 8 | 100.0 | 3 | 11 | 27.3 | 33 | 67 | 49.3 | 26 | 60 | 43.3 |
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| Scheyer | 4 | 10 | 40.0 | 5 | 11 | 45.5 | 10 | 21 | 47.6 | 29 | 60 | 48.3 | 24 | 49 | 49.0 |
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| Paulus | 6 | 7 | 85.7 | 6 | 7 | 85.7 | 3 | 12 | 25.0 | 27 | 58 | 46.6 | 21 | 51 | 41.2 |
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| Smith | 13 | 22 | 59.1 | 13 | 22 | 59.1 | 2 | 4 | 50.0 | 17 | 37 | 45.9 | 6 | 17 | 35.3 |
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| Thomas | 14 | 19 | 73.7 | 14 | 20 | 70.0 | 2 | 8 | 25.0 | 11 | 23 | 47.8 | 2 | 8 | 25.0 |
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| Zoubek | 11 | 15 | 73.3 | 13 | 17 | 76.5 | 2 | 7 | 28.6 | 15 | 23 | 65.2 | 2 | 7 | 28.6 |
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| Pocius | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 2 | 4 | 50.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 4 | 12 | 33.3 | 3 | 9 | 33.3 |
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| Davidson | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 |
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| McClure | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! |
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| 124 | 188 | 66.0 | 130 | 196 | 66.3 | 57 | 149 | 38.3 | 244 | 514 | 47.5 | 143 | 352 | 40.6 |
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Here's a glossary for the categories:
FG - all field goals
2 - all 2-point field goals
3 - 3-point field goals
D - dunks
L - layups
T - tip-ins
DL - dunks and layups
DLT - dunks, layups, and tip-ins
O2 - all 2 point field goals that aren't dunks, layups, or tip-ins (broadly referred to as 2-point jumpers)
ND - all non-dunks
J - all jumpers (O2+3)
So far, Duke's distribution is 37.0% 3s, 35.8% DLT, and 27.2% other twos.
Duke picked up its fourth Maui win in four tries, and looked impressive doing so, especially in light of some of the team's weaknesses last season. The Marquette game especially was an example of a game that last year's Duke team would not have one. This season's version handled the ball better, stood up to the pressure better, and executed better down the stretch, all of which were necessary to bring home a four-point victory. Last season, against basically this same Marquette team, Duke turned the ball over on 28% of its possessions and managed only a .425 EFG%. Those same numbers this year were 21% and .558, and the improvement in those two categories is responsible for the 15-point swing.
Here are the HD Box scores for Duke for the three games in Maui (follow this link for an explanation of these):
Princeton
| O. Poss | D. Poss | +/- | Pts | 2PM-A | 3PM-A | FTM-A | FGA | Ast | TO | STL | BLK | ORB | DRB |
| Henderson | 35 | 35 | +33 | 12/50 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8/37 | 1/15 | 1/35 | 0/35 | 0/23 | 2/19 | 4/19 |
| Paulus | 46 | 46 | +24 | 7/58 | 2-3 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 8/49 | 4/22 | 2/46 | 3/46 | 0/33 | 0/26 | 1/20 |
| Singler | 50 | 48 | +16 | 21/57 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 14/57 | 0/16 | 3/50 | 0/48 | 0/29 | 9/34 | 3/16 |
| King | 27 | 28 | +13 | 7/33 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 9/27 | 0/10 | 0/27 | 0/28 | 1/18 | 0/16 | 1/13 |
| Thomas | 27 | 26 | +13 | 6/32 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3/27 | 0/11 | 1/27 | 0/26 | 0/18 | 1/16 | 1/10 |
| Scheyer | 41 | 42 | +12 | 10/46 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 7/42 | 2/16 | 0/41 | 0/42 | 1/26 | 1/25 | 3/16 |
| Nelson | 45 | 45 | +11 | 7/52 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 9/51 | 3/19 | 1/45 | 2/45 | 0/29 | 3/30 | 3/14 |
| Zoubek | 29 | 30 | +3 | 9/34 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7/32 | 0/10 | 2/29 | 0/30 | 2/23 | 3/18 | 3/12 |
| Smith | 25 | 25 | -2 | 2/25 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6/25 | 3/8 | 0/25 | 2/25 | 0/14 | 0/17 | 1/7 |
| McClure | 13 | 14 | -6 | 0/13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/8 | 0/4 | 0/13 | 1/14 | 0/10 | 0/4 | 1/4 |
| Pocius | 17 | 16 | -7 | 2/15 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3/15 | 1/5 | 1/17 | 1/16 | 0/12 | 0/10 | 2/4 |
| Duke | 71 | 71 | +22 | 83 | 29-55 | 5-19 | 10-15 | 74 | 14/34 | 11/71 | 9/71 | 4/47 | 20/43 | 24/27 |
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| 0.527 | 0.263 | 0.667 |
| 41.18 | 15.49 | 12.68 | 8.51 | 46.51 | 88.89 |
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Illinois
| O. Poss | D. Poss | +/- | Pts | 2PM-A | 3PM-A | FTM-A | FGA | Ast | TO | STL | BLK | ORB | DRB |
| Singler | 42 | 42 | +15 | 8/53 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6/31 | 1/17 | 3/42 | 1/42 | 0/39 | 0/14 | 1/28 |
| Zoubek | 31 | 29 | +12 | 4/41 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2/22 | 1/12 | 0/31 | 1/29 | 1/27 | 1/11 | 2/23 |
| Scheyer | 55 | 54 | +11 | 7/63 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6/33 | 2/27 | 2/55 | 0/54 | 0/53 | 1/17 | 6/40 |
| Thomas | 43 | 46 | +10 | 5/47 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2/27 | 0/12 | 1/43 | 1/46 | 1/42 | 0/16 | 1/32 |
| Smith | 19 | 19 | +6 | 6/23 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1/11 | 0/8 | 3/19 | 1/19 | 1/20 | 0/4 | 0/14 |
| Henderson | 42 | 42 | +5 | 23/47 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 5-8 | 15/30 | 1/7 | 0/42 | 0/42 | 2/39 | 1/18 | 4/29 |
| Paulus | 50 | 50 | +5 | 10/56 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 6/36 | 4/17 | 1/50 | 1/50 | 0/46 | 0/20 | 3/34 |
| Nelson | 53 | 53 | +3 | 16/61 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8/38 | 2/16 | 0/53 | 0/53 | 1/52 | 1/19 | 5/35 |
| King | 5 | 5 | -2 | 0/4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 0/5 | 1/7 | 0/1 | 1/5 |
| Duke | 68 | 68 | +13 | 79 | 20-33 | 6-13 | 21-29 | 46 | 11/26 | 12/68 | 5/68 | 7/65 | 5/24 | 26/48 |
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| 0.606 | 0.462 | 0.724 |
| 42.31 | 17.65 | 7.35 | 10.77 | 20.83 | 54.17 |
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Marquette
| O. Poss | D. Poss | +/- | Pts | 2PM-A | 3PM-A | FTM-A | FGA | Ast | TO | STL | BLK | ORB | DRB |
| Singler | 64 | 61 | +12 | 25/75 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 11/48 | 1/19 | 3/64 | 0/61 | 0/52 | 3/27 | 4/33 |
| Zoubek | 9 | 9 | +9 | 4/17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2/11 | 1/5 | 0/9 | 0/9 | 0/9 | 2/4 | 1/5 |
| Scheyer | 43 | 41 | +1 | 2/54 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4/36 | 2/19 | 2/43 | 0/41 | 0/38 | 0/18 | 4/23 |
| Thomas | 49 | 52 | -7 | 10/49 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8/36 | 0/12 | 0/49 | 0/52 | 1/41 | 3/25 | 2/26 |
| Smith | 26 | 26 | -4 | 4/28 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3/20 | 1/10 | 1/26 | 0/26 | 0/22 | 0/12 | 1/13 |
| Henderson | 39 | 38 | -4 | 7/35 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7/26 | 0/7 | 2/39 | 0/38 | 1/30 | 1/20 | 4/18 |
| Paulus | 49 | 48 | +12 | 9/59 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 6/37 | 3/15 | 3/49 | 0/48 | 0/41 | 1/22 | 1/26 |
| Nelson | 59 | 58 | +4 | 16/68 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 4-8 | 11/44 | 4/17 | 3/59 | 1/58 | 0/51 | 0/25 | 7/31 |
| King | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0/0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
| Duke | 68 | 67 | +4 | 77 | 20-37 | 6-15 | 19-27 | 52 | 12/26 | 14/68 | 2/68 | 2/57 | 12/31 | 25/35 |
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| 0.541 | 0.400 | 0.704 |
| 46.15 | 20.59 | 2.94 | 3.51 | 38.71 | 71.43 |
I thought Singler and Nelson both had excellent tournaments in all three games. Henderson showed us flashes of brilliance, but also reverted to last year's form of being a little bit of a black hole with the ball - once he gets it and makes a move toward the hoop, it's very likely he'll shoot, even if it ends up being a difficult/contested shot. Scheyer played very solid floor games - watch him sometimes on off-the-ball defense, because he does as good a job on ball denial as anyone at Duke in recent years. All in all, there was a lot to be excited about from the team's performance in Maui.
Eastern Kentucky shouldn't provide too much trouble tomorrow, but it'll be a nice warmup before Wisconsin comes to town for the ACC/Big Ten.
