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| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 52 | 1.13 | 52 | 1.15 |
| Paulus-off | 16 | 1.31 | 15 | 1.07 |
| Redick-on | 68 | 1.18 | 67 | 1.13 |
| Redick-off | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 |
| Dockery-on | 33 | 1.06 | 34.5 | 1.25 |
| Dockery-off | 35 | 1.29 | 32.5 | 1.02 |
| McRoberts-on | 40.5 | 1.04 | 40.5 | 1.28 |
| McRoberts-off | 27.5 | 1.38 | 26.5 | .91 |
| Williams-on | 65 | 1.18 | 63.5 | 1.13 |
| Williams-off | 3 | 1.00 | 3.5 | 1.14 |
| Melchionni-on | 23.5 | 1.45 | 22 | .82 |
| Melchionni-off | 44.5 | 1.03 | 45 | 1.29 |
| Nelson-on | 50 | 1.36 | 48.5 | 1.03 |
| Nelson-off | 18 | .67 | 18.5 | 1.41 |
| Boykin-on | 5 | .60 | 4.5 | 1.11 |
| Boykin-off | 63 | 1.22 | 62.5 | 1.14 |
| Boateng-on | 3 | .67 | 2.5 | 1.60 |
| Boateng-off | 65 | 1.20 | 64.5 | 1.12 |
| Team Totals | 68 | 1.176 | 67 | 1.134 |
So what do we know... this team is not going to go down as one of the great defensive teams in Duke history. Since the BC game, our defensive rating has been 101.97. Now I can't perform the fancy adjustments to allow for the opponents' offensive strength, but as a matter of raw numbers, this rating played out over the course of the season would rank somewhere around 190th in the country, around such stalwarts as Santa Clara, Hartford, and Fresno St (and shockingly, Michigan St - wow). Now, there was a point in time where we played good enough defense that even with this late slump, our raw rating for the season is 94.1. So how can we get back there? Two things - one is personnel: more minutes for Nelson and Dock, fewer for Lee and Greg. This doesn't need to be dramatic, but even a total shift of 8 minutes more combined for the first two would probably mean a 4 or 5 point difference. Second, I think we should sacrifice any thought of fast break. We don't score a ton of transition points of missed shots anyway, and so sending all 5 players to crash the glass would help control the defensive boards. Our defense is generally pretty solid on the first shot, but giving up offensive boards has let the other teams put up good PPP numbers. Since the BC game, opponents have gotten about 42% of their own misses. Cutting this down even to 35% would probably net another 4 or 5 points, even if it meant less transition opportunities for us (again, most of Duke's transition points come off of turnovers, not missed shots). These two minor changes could make a major difference.
The first day of the behemoth now known as the ACC tourney is upon us, and it has me remembering fondly the days when ol' Les had his Wolfpack as regular Thursday participants. Now, with 8 of the 12 teams playing today, it's much harder to scoff. That said, let's take a look at the slate...
1) Clemson at Miami - Clemson has won 4 of 5 after hitting a big dry spell in the middle of the season, and is playing its best ball of the year. Miami stumbled down the stretch, losing 6 of 7. During that time, Miami's offense really cooled off - they had a 101.8 ORating and shot just 27.9% from beyond the arc, despite having guards in Hite, Diaz, and Harris who love to gun it from there. Clemson is exactly the opposite - they suddenly discovered they had an offense, scoring over 80 points in each of their last 4 wins and posting a 115.8 ORating over that stretch. Akin Akingbala is doing his best Sharrod Ford impersonation, and the guards are nailing the 3 at a 43.7% clip. Both teams should continue the trend today - look for Clemson to keep on winning.
2) Wake Forest at Florida State - Wake had a very nice showing against NC State last weekend, but their season will end with this game this afternoon. Florida State is determined to get an NCAA bid, and they're finally playing with both energy and discipline. The only meeting between the two this season was a relatively easy 7 point win for FSU - they hit 55% beyond the arc and only turned the ball over 9 times, and this was on the road. Expect to be watching a 20-win FSU team take on the 'Pack tomorrow (fun stat of the day - no 20-win team from a BCS conference has ever been denied a tournament bid - FSU and Texas A&M, take comfort, perhaps).
3) Virginia Tech at Virginia - I'd like to say the Cavs win this. I want to say the Cavs win this. They in fact need to win this for an NIT bid (I'm assuming that the new NIT still has the "team must be over .500 rule"). But they've been fingers-to-the-nose stinking the last few games away from U-Hall, with defensive debacles at FSU, Clemson, and UNC. Both games this season between the teams were close and ugly, but both were wins for the 'Hoos. I just have this hunch that they can't pull it off the third time. Also, by the numbers, Tech was 8th in eMargin, and UVA was 12th. When VT lost, it tended to be close. When UVA's lost, they've gotten blown out.
4) Georgia Tech at Maryland - I'm going to go on the record as being shocked (shocked!) that anyone is still legitimately considering the Terps as a tournament team. This is actually a very easy leave-off for the committee, because they get to only consider the Terps sans Chris McCray. And those Terps have been bad. Yes, Gary, you did have to play Duke and UNC twice. But you lost those 4 games by an average of almost 18 points. Tech was finishing its season on a nice run until getting dismantled by Clemson - they had a good win over NC State, and played extremely well in losses to UNC, Duke, and Maryland (in OT at MD). This is a young, talented team that should be trouble next season. They also should end Maryland's season today.
The final update to the Tempo-Free stats has been made over on the right side. Some comments...
1) North Carolina - their seven game win streak to end the season catapulted them to the top of the conference in efficiency margin - over that time they had a plus 0.25, which is terrific (equates to about a 15-20 point margin of victory in the average game). For this shift, look no further than one stat - offensive turnovers. Through the first Duke game, Carolina turned the ball over 27.2% of its possessions - on its winning streak, that number was dropped to 16.8%. This accounts for an improvement in both their offensive and defensive efficiency - offensively because it gives a good shooting team somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-9 more possessions a game (which, for UNC, would yield 8-10 more points), and defensively because it denies the other team easy transition opportunities. Carolina's half court D has been good all year, but the numbers didn't always reflect it because of transition baskets. Over the last 7 games when they didn't turn the ball over, their defensive rating was 91.8 - very good. If they continue to protect the ball on offense, they will be a very difficult team to beat.
2) Duke - consecutive losses (and a string of not so big wins) dropped Duke to second in the efficiency margin numbers for the conference season. Duke's defensive woes started at BC - the first seven games of the season, the Devils posted a 93.9 DRating. In the nine games since, their DRating is 101.7. The Devils have still been forcing turnovers - over 20% of the opponents' possessions ended in turnovers over that nine game span. Teams have just been shooting slightly better, and getting to the free throw line - opponents have four more free throw attempts a game, and hit 74%. Except for the last three conference games, the offense continues to be very good - there's no reason to think that Duke won't break out of this mini-slump and go back to executing at a high level. But the defense needs to be ratcheted up - we need to match the intensity and aggressiveness that other teams have recently been bringing to us.
3) NC State - um, live by the three, die by the three - in their six losses, they have hit just .299 from behind the arc - averaging about 7 for 24 in those games. Overall, though, they are a very good shooting team - over 50% on twos and over 40% on threes, and they lead the conference in eFG%. They play field goal defense only - they don't force a lot of turnovers, and they don't try for offensive rebounds. They're only so-so at that defense though, so they'll go as far as their offense takes them (which, if they're hitting, could be very far indeed).
4) Virginia - yes, the lobsided loss to Carolina probably distorts all these numbers, but the numbers show that Virginia was in fact as bad as everyone thought they would be, but managed to pull out some wins anyway. They're last in the conference in efficiency margin, 11th in offense, 10th in defense, 12th in shooting, 11th in forcing turnovers, 12th in allowing assists and blocked shots, etc. What they have done well is rebound, particularly on the defensive end. And their defense has been better than the current numbers - take out the UNC debacle, and their 5th in defense. Earlier in the season when they were winning, defense was their hallmark - they hovered around the top of the conference in defense for the first 5 weeks. But the margin for error for these guys is so small - if Singletary has a bad game, it's pretty much over for them. Hopefully they'll get to host an NIT game.
Finally, I've been looking into the TFS numbers from other conferences, and two teams jump out as just steamrolling through their league. Funny thing is, they're both in the same conference - Texas and Kansas. Texas has been dominant in conference play - their margin is +24.8, and they have the best offense and second best defense. Kansas has been almost as good - checking in at +18.8, with the best in-conference defensive rating of any major conference team (86.35). This is a reflection both of the quality of these two teams (high) and the general quality of the Big XII (low - only 4 teams have a positive efficiency margin). This argument is a little circular - do Texas and Kansas have great numbers because the other teams are all bad, or are the numbers of the other teams skewed because they had to play Texas and Kansas? Either way you look at it, both of these teams have the stuff to make a deep run into March. The fact that Kansas and North Carolina have done as well as they have this year is remarkable - the growth over just one season has been amazing to watch.
Just got back from the semifinals of the CAA tournament, where #1 UNCW easily handled #5 Northeastern, and #3 Hofstra came back to upset #2 George Mason. Second game first - Hofstra got 8 total bench minutes from 1 player, and I don't think coach Tom Pecora even wanted to go that deep. Greg Johnson came in for Loren Stokes when he got hit in the eye early in the first half, and punched in the balls late in the second half, and Johnson spelled Agudio when he got a little foul trouble. Uter, Kieza, and Rivera all played the full 40 - and that's after Rivera played 40 and Kieza 39 the night before. Still, they had plenty left to overcome an early George Mason lead and pull the upset. Defense was the key here - Mason scored only 16 in the second half, and was held to only 32.7% shooting on the game. Hofstra is a fun team to watch - the three guards (Stokes, Agudio, and Rivera) all have good outside shots and good slashing games, and Adrian Uter is a poor man's Ben Wallace - he's in there to rebound, block shots (he had a couple facials on Jai Lewis), and show off his ridiculous 'fro. Mason coach Jim Larranaga made a questionable personnel choice late in the game - he took out Will Thomas, who had been having the best game of any Patriot, for most of the last 3 or 4 minutes. Unsurprisingly, the offense stalled out, and they couldn't put together any kind of comeback. Losing before the conference finals isn't the end of the at-large world for George Mason, but losing the way they did can't have helped. They'll be seriously sweating it out next Sunday.
The first game was vintage UNCW basketball. It was close only once in the second half, at 44-41, but the 'Hawks went on a 15-3 run to ice the game away. Everything they do is evenly distributed - I had to look at the box score to see who their leading scorer was (TJ Carter) - 4 ended up in double figures, and Goldsberry was content to merely distribute - he had 3 points but 10 assists and only 1 turnover. No single player stands out, but they all play well, and when all is said and done, they usually win. Northeastern probably had the two best players on the floor in Jose Juan Barea and Shawn James (8 blocks, all emphatic), but they were largely contained, and the better team won easily. Barea led all scorers with 17, but it took him 19 shots to get there, and he had 6 turnovers against 5 assists - the conference player of the year never really got his rhythm. UNCW should have a tougher time tomorrow night with Hofstra, which has a more well distributed scoring attack, and will put pressure on Wyrick in particular, who will be guarding a quicker player all night. I'm really looking forward to going back and seeing the title game in person.
Tomorrow I'll post the tempo-free stats for the season, and will probably have some things to say about the overall numbers. As the week progresses, look for conference championship game previews, ACC Tourney previews, and then recaps for every ACC game I can see (which will hopefully be the vast majority). Have I mentioned yet how much I love this time of year?
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 58 | .86 | 57 | 1.02 |
| Paulus-off | 24 | 1.08 | 25 | 1.00 |
| Redick-on | 80 | .95 | 79 | 1.11 |
| Redick-off | 2 | .00 | 3 | 1.00 |
| Dockery-on | 51 | .86 | 52.5 | 1.01 |
| Dockery-off | 31 | 1.03 | 29.5 | 1.02 |
| McRoberts-on | 42 | .60 | 42.5 | .94 |
| McRoberts-off | 40 | 1.28 | 39.5 | 1.09 |
| Williams-on | 69.5 | .96 | 68 | 1.06 |
| Williams-off | 12.5 | .72 | 14 | .79 |
| Melchionni-on | 55 | 1.05 | 52.5 | 1.03 |
| Melchionni-off | 27 | .67 | 29.5 | .98 |
| Nelson-on | 55 | 1.05 | 56.5 | .99 |
| Nelson-off | 27 | .67 | 25.5 | 1.06 |
| Boykin-on | 0 | .00 | 1 | .00 |
| Boykin-off | 82 | .93 | 81 | 1.02 |
| Johnson-on | 1.5 | 1.33 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Johnson-off | 80.5 | .92 | 81 | 1.00 |
| Team Totals | 82 | .927 | 82 | 1.012 |
I had to double check the numbers on Josh, because I didn't remember there being that drastic a difference between when he was on and off, but those are the right numbers. I think this was less attributable to any poor play by him, and more attributable to good play on offense by Lee and DeMarcus, both of whom played a lot of their minutes with McRoberts on the floor. Also, taking out our first 5 possessions (10 points), the team scored 66 in 77, for a .857 ppp (this makes Nelson's contributions even more remarkable - outside of those 5 possessions, the team scored only 8 points in the 22 other possessions he was on the bench).
As for general observations - as the on-the-ball pressure has increased on our guards, the offense has struggled. Paulus in particular has trouble with aggressive defense - it gets him going a little too fast, and he tends to make mistakes. The Carolina game was played at a frenetic pace - each team had the ball for just under 15 seconds on the average possession. This year, our offense has been better playing at a little bit of a slower pace, and Carolina won this one by speeding it up. Finally though, this game didn't look too terribly different from any of our other close games, except that shots that Redick made earlier, he missed last night. I'm certainly not putting the responsibility for the loss on his shoulders - plenty of people didn't play too well yesterday. But if he hits just 44%, we win both games this week. I think what this reveals most is how razor-thin the margin for error is for this team, and how much trouble we'll be in if no one can step up to fill the void if Redick continues to be off.
I'm headed down to Richmond today to watch the CAA semis, so I'll miss the MVC and Southern championship games today. Arch Madness at the Savvis Center featured several upsets, and completely realigned the bubble for the Valley - Bradley and SIU probably played themselves in (one definitely will be after today), and Creighton and Northern Iowa are now probably pretty nervous. Wichita State should still be safely in, even with the loss yesterday. Missouri State probably wishes it could play that Arkansas game again. In the Southern, the upstarts (Georgia Southern, Elon) who led the conference in the regular season couldn't get the job done in the tournament, and traditional powers Davidson and UT-Chattanooga will play for the automatic bid today. Shocking as it is to say for the SoCon, the winner is probably a 16-seed.
I'm going to go on the record right now and say that I'm not 100% pleased with the ridiculousness surrounding Duke-UNC this week - from constant ESPN hype, to Dr. Strangelove-esque columns (Or, How I Learned to Stop Hating and Realize That It's Ok to Like Duke), to the weird triple coverage planned for tonight. Fox and MLB did this with Yankees-Red Sox, and now everyone who's not a fan of either team is completely sick of both - that's not something I want to see happen with Duke-UNC. Saturation is good - oversaturation can be a big problem.
Of course, for me, Rivalry Day is always one of the most exciting times of the year - it brings back memories of the first UNC game I saw in Cameron, the first bonfire afterwards, etc. This year's game carries all the right ingredients for a Duke win - everyone, and I mean everyone, has been talking up Carolina lately. They've elevated their play enough that they're no longer just the year's feel good story (for those of you who, unlike me, can tolerate that particular color of blue), they're just a really good team. If the season ended today, they'd be seeded higher than both NC State and BC in the NCAAs, and I don't think anyone could have predicted that at the start of the year. Alongside this hype has been talk of Duke's recent struggles - relatively lethargic wins against G. Tech and Temple, and an unimpressive showing in a loss to FSU. Casual observers have seized on this recent play to think that the Tar Heels can score the big upset. Of course, they forget that a) it's Senior Night in Cameron for our most cohesive senior class in a decade, b) the team is bound to be refocused and hungry after coming off a loss, and c) Duke is actually the better team. So let the talk keep building for the Carolina upset, and let the line keep moving less and less in Duke's favor - it'll just make it all the sweeter when we win.
By the numbers, we're vulnerable in exactly the place that UNC beat us last game - the Heels are a very good rebounding team - they get almost 56% of the total missed shots, including 41% on the offensive end. Duke, as is well documented, not so good - just 44% of the total missed shots, and we give up 41% to opponents on the offensive end. Carolina used this difference to its advantage during the big second half comeback last time - one thing to watch for in this game is over the back calls - I had thought this foul had completely disappeared this season until the FSU game, when both teams got hit with a few whistles for it. Carolina got a lot of their offensive boards through Duke players, and getting just a couple of calls on that could make a difference tonight. In pretty much all the rest of the areas, the teams are evenly matched - both play very good field goal defense, both execute well on the offensive end, both share the ball well within their offense, etc. The one clear cut Duke advantage is in turnovers - we force more and they give up more (one caveat here - in the 6 game win streak, the Heels have done a very good job holding on to the ball - only 16.3 TOs per 100 possessions - you want an explanation for why they're on that streak, look no further). The FSU game revealed how important it is to win the turnover battle - it can negate good shooting and/or offensive rebounding, because the other team has fewer possessions in which they have a chance to score. In the last game, Duke was +5 in the TO margin - expect that number to increase inside Cameron tonight.
Again, I think the ingredients here are right for a Duke win, and possibly a big one. 12 hours and counting....
While you're waiting for Duke-UNC, there are three automatic bids that will be handed out this afternoon - let's take a brief look at those games:
12:00, ESPN2 - Coastal Carolina at Winthrop - I wish I could find the actual post, but I don't remember exactly where it came from, so I'll have to paraphrase. If I said there was a coach out there who had played with Michael Jordan, been an assistant on a National Championship team, had good success at a smaller program before being quickly elevated to coach a major conference school, only to find mediocre results and heavy controversy among the fan base, get run out of town while watching the new coach enjoy terrific success in his place (with his recruits), and now finds some measure of redemption by coaching a small conference team on the coast to one of the best seasons in program history, you'd think I was talking about Matt Doherty, right? Well, you're wrong - I'm talking about Buzz Peterson, who has the Chanticleers (funny name) of Coastal Carolina on a 12 game winning streak, including a sweep of prohibitive conference favorite Winthrop, who just happens to be their opponents today. For the most part, the games during that streak haven't been close - average margin of victory is almost 12 pts/gm. Today, they'll take the conference's best offense up against the best defense in the Big South. The Eagles have better talent (ex. A, Torrell Martin, ex. B, James Shuler, ex. C, Craig Bradshaw), and home court, but that didn't stop Coastal from stealing a win there earlier this season, and you can bet they're not intimidated playing there today. If the Chanticleers can pull off the three-game sweep, it will be behind the gunning of Jack Leasure (1.23 ppws on the year, very good for a guard putting up 35 minutes and 18.0 points a game) and Pele Paelay, who contributes almost 15 points of his own. Terrific kick-off game to championship week.
2:00, ESPN2 - Lipscomb v. Belmont - These two teams split the season series, with each holding home court slightly unconventionally - the pace of each game favored the road team, but the home team won playing the other team's style. Belmont is a high scoring, running and gunning team - their pace is top 50 in the country, and their offensive efficiency is tops in the ASun. Lipscomb prefers a slower pace, and relies on the conference's best defense to get the job done. These were the conference's two heavyweights all season - they tied for 1st with 15-5 conference records, and both have advanced to today's finals on the back of two double figure wins in the first two rounds. Both games in the regular season had big final margins, but today's rubber match should be much closer.
4:00, ESPN2 - Murray St. v. Samford - Much like Lipscomb and Belmont, these two ruled the OVC this year playing markedly different styles. Murray State relies on a top 100 defense (tops in conference) to shut down their opponents, while Samford plays extremely slow, possession oriented basketball (4th slowest pace in all the land), but executes extremely well, for the best offensive efficiency in the OVC. The two matchups this year were split, with Murray State really establishing itself defensively in the second game, holding Samford to just 38 points. I'll take defense over offense in a rubber match, and look for the Racers to represent the OVC in the NCAAs this year.
| Player | Off. Poss. | Off. PPP | Def. Poss. | Def. PPP |
| Paulus-on | 50.5 | .85 | 52 | 1.17 |
| Paulus-off | 21.5 | 1.44 | 20 | .90 |
| Redick-on | 71 | 1.04 | 71 | 1.11 |
| Redick-off | 1 | .00 | 1 | .00 |
| Dockery-on | 33 | 1.27 | 34 | .94 |
| Dockery-off | 39 | .82 | 38 | 1.24 |
| McRoberts-on | 48 | 1.02 | 48 | 1.08 |
| McRoberts-off | 24 | 1.04 | 24 | 1.13 |
| Williams-on | 61 | .98 | 60 | .97 |
| Williams-off | 11 | 1.27 | 12 | 1.58 |
| Melchionni-on | 24.5 | .94 | 25 | 1.28 |
| Melchionni-off | 47.5 | 1.07 | 47 | 1.00 |
| Nelson-on | 62.5 | 1.04 | 60 | 1.12 |
| Nelson-off | 9.5 | .95 | 12 | 1.00 |
| Boykin-on | 2 | .00 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Boykin-off | 70 | 1.06 | 71 | 1.08 |
| Boateng-on | 5.5 | 2.18 | 7 | 1.29 |
| Boateng-off | 66.5 | .93 | 65 | 1.08 |
| Johnson-on | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 1.50 |
| Johnson-off | 70 | 1.03 | 70 | 1.09 |
| Team Totals | 72 | 1.028 | 72 | 1.097 |
Easily the toughest conference game for Greg, and the numbers show it - we got killed on offense and on defense with him on the court. I would not be surprised at all to see the leash much shorter on him in the Carolina game and the tournament - I know there's a fine line to toe when you're dealing with young kids (and hopefully not crushing his confidence or aggressiveness if you pull him every time he makes a mistake), but the "let him play through it" option just isn't working - he's not learning from his mistakes on the fly. Plus, Dockery is a quintessential veteran - disciplined, patient, and experienced, and he should be able to at least bring a little order to the offense. And sure, part of this is a little overreaction in the wake of one bad game, but a five minute shift in PT between Dock and Paulus here could have made the difference last night, and I expect to see a 3-5 minute shift on Saturday. The defense also clearly struggled with Shel off the court - FSU scored almost every possession down the court.
More to come later....
