Villanova 77, Duke 54

There's not a whole lot to say when you shoot 27% for a game. You tip your hat to the other team for a good defensive performance (and it was a good defensive performance) and you wonder where the heck your shot went for 40 minutes. Duke shot 16-60. 16-60. 5-27 from downtown and 11-33 from 2. Villanova turned Duke into an exclusively jump-shooting team, and the jump shot just wasn't there. On the season, Duke got roughly 35% of their attempts as layups, dunks, or tip-ins. Against Villanova, that number was just 15/60, 25%. When you don't give yourselves good looks from inside, it's very difficult to score well. It also makes it more difficult to pick up easy second chance points. Shots from the paint put pressure on the defense, and often cause defenders to be out of place as they rotate, opening opportunities on the glass. While Duke was shooting jumpers from nowhere near the lane, Villanova was closing it off to offensive rebounding, gathering 36 of 44 Duke misses - better than 80%. Rebounding has hurt us in tournaments past, but usually on the defensive end. Thursday, Duke put up its single worst offensive rebounding performance on the year.

Villanova, by contrast, figured things out at the start of the second half and got the ball inside on Duke. Over the first 8 minutes, as they stretched the lead from 1 to 16, Villanova's attempts look like this: layup, jumper, layup, dunk, layup, layup, tip-in, layup, layup, three, layup, layup, jumper (paint). Of their first 13 second-half attempts from the field, 11 came in the paint. The Wildcats made 10 of those 13 shots, which is not terribly surprising when you get close looks at the hoop.

Watching the game (or at least the first ~30 minutes, until CBS put on the mercy rule in Washington State and switched to Missouri-Memphis), I actually thought Duke's offense played well for the first 15 minutes, despite not scoring. The offense was running smoothly (for the most part) and the Devils were getting exactly the looks they wanted to get - the shots just weren't falling. I sounded like a broken record, repeatedly saying after a miss "that's ok, that's a great look, it was exactly the kind of shot the play was designed to produce," and I wasn't just being delusional. The problem was, Villanova's defense got wise to what we were doing and began to shut it down, and Duke never adjusted. In the second half (again, what I saw of it) there was very little good running of the offense, and quite a lot of broken plays, late-shot-clock desperation shots, contested attempts, etc.

Here's the HD box. It is, quite simply, a blood bath. Henderson's offensive rating is sub-50 on a high usage night, and Scheyer's wasn't much better. There's not much spread in the plus/minus - we got whipped in the second half regardless of who was on the court.



And, as a bonus, here's the plus/minus from Villanova. Again, not much spread - Villanova outscored Duke regardless of who was on the court.

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Reynolds	24	21	3	44	27	17	68	48	20
Redding	22	18	4	43	27	16	65	45	20
Cunningham	24	21	3	37	22	15	61	43	18
Anderson	17	16	1	28	15	13	45	31	14
Stokes	13	10	3	26	18	8	39	28	11
Clark	17	13	4	23	17	6	40	30	10
Fisher	13	14	-1	27	18	9	40	32	8
Pena	0	2	-2	19	11	8	19	13	6
Colenda	0	0	0	4	0	4	4	0	4
Tchuisi	0	0	0	4	0	4	4	0	4
	26	23	3	51	31	20	77	54	23

So that's it for the season; however, unlike in past years, I'm not going to go into complete hibernation over the off-season. I'll pop back in occasionally for some post-mortems on this season (I was intrigued by the suggestion to compare this season to last season, and may do so in some detail) and I'm also in the process of going back in time and compiling data from Duke seasons past to better be able to place future individual and team performances in their historical contexts.

Villanova Preview

Duke and Villanova roll into Boston as two very evenly matched teams. The Wildcats feature a collection of talented guards who can slash and score, an undersized but talented and versatile big man, and the best pair of Coreys since Feldman/Haim. Villanova is a very strong offensive team, and has lost just one game all season (to UConn) where their offensive rating is +100. However, they've been a little lax on defense for much of the year, resulting in a healthy number of shootouts. 10 of their last 12 Big East opponents, including Rutgers and Depaul, scored over a point per possession against Villanova. Like Duke, actually, this is a team whose defense was dominant in the early part of the season but faded down the stretch. Like Duke, they feel like the regained some defensive swagger last weekend (holding UCLA, the Pac-10's most potent offense, to 69 points in 73 possessions).

Nova's game plan is pretty predictable. They like to spread the floor and let Fisher and Reynolds (and to a lesser extent, Redding) create off the bounce. They excel at getting to the line (where they shoot almost 75% as a team), and they share the ball well also. The team focuses more inside than outside, but Reynolds and Stokes (and to a lesser extent, Fisher) can light it up from downtown if left alone. Finally, their bigs are all well-trained to attack the glass. Cunningham, Anderson, Pena, and Clark are all in the top 500 nationally in offensive rebound percentage, and for a small team, the Wildcats rank a very respectable 53rd.

On defense, Villanova plays an aggressive man-to-man, creating a healthy number of steals (Reynolds, Fisher, and Anderson are in the top 500 in steal rate) although not a ton of turnovers aside from that. They've been somewhat generous from the three point stripe this season, and have a tendency to be foul prone - opponents post a 37.6 free throw rate, which is 202nd in the country. Finally, teams have a tendency to pass the ball well against them - over 61% of made baskets against Villanova come off of assists, ranking Villanova 328th in the country in denying assisted baskets.

To me, Duke needs to do two things to win this game - value the ball, and value possessions. Valuing the ball: The Devils have been very difficult to turn over since Scheyer took the point, and even their 17th ranking is misleadingly low. Seven of the past ten games they've turned it over fewer than once every six possessions. At the other end of the court, Duke's forced six of the past opponents to cough the ball up at least once every five possessions (four have been once every four). If that rate holds tonight, Duke will effectively give itself four-six extra opportunities to score.

Valuing possessions: Like valuing the ball, this has an offensive and defensive component. Offensively, Duke needs to avoid giving Villanova freebies - the possessions where Henderson takes an 18-footer 10 seconds into the shot clock before the offense gets set, where Thomas or Zoubek set moving screens, where Singler fumbles the ball out of bounds, etc. Instead, they need to play each possession on offense with purpose - get to the paint, draw the defense, create open looks off of screens, get layups, get open threes, and get fouled. Duke needs to be the aggressor when it has the ball, and not let Villanova's defense force them into jump shots. Complacency has been a problem for Duke on offense this year; if they get complacent tonight, their season will end. Defensively, Duke needs to end possessions. This team has had a habit of missing box out assignments and not gripping rebounds with strength. Defensive rebounding is the team's single biggest weakness, and 8 of the last 13 opponents have been able to get 40% or more of their misses back for second chances. Villanova will attack the offensive glass, and may do so with extra vigor against a Duke team that's weak in ending possessions. Tonight, Duke needs a strong defensive rebounding performance, and it needs to be done as a team. When the helpside defense rotates and the shot goes up, people just need to throw a body on any blue jersey they can to box out.

Distilled to a numbers point of view, if Duke is +4 or better in turnover margin and Villanova is getting 1/3 or less of their offensive rebounds, the Devils should be in a position to win.

For ACC, Nothing Finer than Duke (well, and Carolina)

Seven became two pretty quickly for the ACC, which was a definite surprise, but what's not surprising is that the league's two heavyweights are playing into the second weekend. For Duke, welcome back! The Sweet 16 hasn't seemed the same without you these past couple years. Mentally, getting out of the first weekend was big for this team, which has a grand total of 37 second-weekend minutes on the roster (that would be Greg Paulus 36, Dave McClure 1). But the Sweet 16 has proven to be its own road block for Coach K and the Devils recently - he's lost 5 of his last 7.

Duke's game against Texas was an extremely solid win, featuring some clutch plays down the stretch from almost everyone on the team - Singler's tip, Scheyer's absolutely ridiculous backhanded save, Williams chasing the ball down and getting foul (as an aside, really, really stupid foul on Gary Johnson - he had position, and reaching out for a shove all alone in the middle of the floor pretty much never goes uncalled), Smith's offensive rebound, Henderson's clutch free throws, McClure's work to get a hand on the missed free throw and create a loose ball situation, etc. And finally this season some bounces went Duke's way - after almost constantly seeing the ball fall the right way for the opponents in every key scenario down the stretch, Duke got to watch Damion James' three go alllllllllmost all the way down, only to rim out.

Jon Scheyer played a superb defensive game on AJ Abrams. Yes, Abrams had 17 to lead Texas. But he shot under 40% and had to work extremely hard to even get the ball in his hands. By game's end, he was passing up reasonable looks for difficult passes - a sure sign of fatigue. I've said before that I think Scheyer is the best off-the-ball perimeter defender I can recall, and Saturday's game did nothing but validate that notion.

Of course, the consequence of siccing one guy on Abrams and telling him never to leave is that the rest of the Horns got to open up the floor and play four on four. Rotation and help defense becomes a lot harder when you take one of your defenders out of the picture, and Varez Ward (yes, Varez Ward) was able to take advantage for Texas.

On Duke's end of the court, this was another game where Gerald Henderson tried to do a little too much. He took nearly 50% of Duke's shots when he was in the game, and often times the ball went to him and never left. In some cases, this was a good thing - he had a stretch in the second half where he drove and attacked, and he got either layups or free throws (or both). But he also settled for long jumpers early in the shot clock and out of the flow of the offense. Most of those just aren't good shots, regardless of whether they go in. Singler had an all-around great game - he continued his hot shooting from three, finished shots inside, and grabbed four offensive boards (none bigger than the final tip). And Nolan Smith continued his reemergence, scoring 11 very efficient points and posting huge numbers in the +/- column.

All in all, this team is starting to look like it did back in November and December. It has four scorers who can get points in a variety of ways, it plays intense defense that forces turnovers, and it manages to come up with clutch plays when needed. Here's the HD Box from the Texas game:



And also, here's the Texas +/-. A comment on Dexter Pittman's numbers. As you can see, all his + came in the second half. He was on the court for three stretches - an early 12-8 Texas run, a brief 2-0 stint, and a similarly brief 6-1 push. His second half numbers, though, were not good - one layup, two missed free throws, four defensive rebounds, two fouls, and a turnover (also, although not reflected below, he played two more offensive possessions than defensive ones, which should tend to increase your +). I chalk this one up to happenstance more than a reflection of his impact, in part because of his first half numbers. When he played well (and played more minutes), he only helped Texas to a draw. When he played more poorly (and fewer minutes) the team managed to outscore Duke 20-9. The two wouldn't necessarily seem to correlate. Again, I think this is a lesson in the merits of these numbers for such small sample sizes (particularly with short substitution patterns - when you're only on court for 2 (the 2-0 run) or 3 (the 6-1 run) possessions at a time, there's a lot of noise and random chance involved).

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Pittman	25	25	0	20	9	11	45	34	11
Mason	18	20	-2	19	18	1	37	38	-1
Chapman	0	0	0	4	7	-3	4	7	-3
Balbay	19	26	-7	36	34	2	55	60	-5
Abrams	29	36	-7	40	38	2	69	74	-5
Ward	10	16	-6	25	24	1	35	40	-5
Johnson	13	17	-4	20	21	-1	33	38	-5
James	25	30	-5	36	37	-1	61	67	-6
Atchley	6	10	-4	0	2	-2	6	12	-6
	29	36	-7	40	38	2	69	74	-5

Next, for Carolina, Tywon Lawson (toe) is back and looks to be largely unaffected by the injury. Lawson (toe) (what? this is how his name appears every 30 seconds or so on the ESPN ticker) again played a key role for Carolina down the stretch as the Heels sprinted away from LSU. Lawson (toe) reentered a tie game with 8:11 remaining. Carolina went on a 19-4 run over the next six minutes during which he scored 9 points, dropped 2 assists, and picked up 2 key steals (and on one of the three scoring possessions where he didn't get a bucket or assist, he got an offensive rebound that kept a possession alive, ultimately ending in a Green 3). Lawson (toe) has a great knack for understanding when he needs to stop being a facilitator and start controlling a game - it's a quailty all great point guards have, and one that will serve him well in the NBA.

Here's the +/- from the Heels' game against the Tigers. Notice Ed Davis at the top (and, correspondingly, Deon Thompson at the bottom). Davis has out-plussed Thompson in many games recently and is starting to get a greater share of the second-half minutes. His offensive game still lacks polish, but he's going to be a very, very good big man for them next season.

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Davis	15	13	2	37	23	14	52	36	16
Ellington	36	26	10	46	41	5	82	67	15
Lawson	27	20	7	41	35	6	68	55	13
Green	36	29	7	33	28	5	69	57	12
Hansbrough	34	28	6	38	35	3	72	63	9
Zeller	11	4	7	0	0	0	11	4	7
Frasor	13	8	5	23	24	-1	36	32	4
Drew	2	4	-2	0	0	0	2	4	-2
Thompson	16	13	3	12	19	-7	28	32	-4
	38	29	9	46	41	5	84	70	14

First Round Wrap-up

The last three days have not been good for the ACC. 6 of the 9 postseason teams lost, 4 by double digits (one on their home court). Wake Forest and Boston College got completely outclassed by two teams that wouldn't have been in the Big Dance but for winning their conference tournaments (although I still think that regardless of their respective records, USC is a better basketball team than BC on any given day - that win was not an upset). And Terrence Oglesby threw a stupid (and costly) elbow that helped cement Clemson's latest first round exit.

So now it's down to the old guard in the conference to do some work on behalf of the ACC. Let's start with UNC. The Heels had no trouble with Radford, which was not surprising, although that they won with defense more than offense may have been. The Heels didn't shoot particularly well, and didn't get to the line very much (relatively), but completely shut down Radford's shooting, allowing just 22 makes on 80 shots. About the only time Artsiom Parakhouski got going was against Zeller, as you can see from the +/- below (look allllll the way down at the bottom):

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Ellington	53	34	19	37	16	21	90	50	40
Green	49	32	17	30	14	16	79	46	33
Hansbrough	42	25	17	17	6	11	59	31	28
Davis	34	14	20	20	12	8	54	26	28
Thompson	24	17	7	34	14	20	58	31	27
Frasor	36	26	10	26	11	15	62	37	25
Drew	21	10	11	27	17	10	48	27	21
Copeland	0	0	0	11	6	5	11	6	5
Watts	0	0	0	11	8	3	11	8	3
Tanner	0	0	0	7	5	2	7	5	2
Moody	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	0	2
Wooten	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	0	2
Zeller	6	12	-6	16	11	5	22	23	-1
	53	34	19	48	24	24	101	58	43

Now, they get a much more difficult opponent in LSU. Handling Marcus Thornton will be a challenge, and in Chris Johnson, the Tigers put out an athletic shot-blocking presence who could give Hansbrough trouble. LSU plays very good field goal defense, and rebounds well, both things that will be heavily tested by Carolina. Now that the 1/16 game is out of the way, UNC's in the territory where any team can beat them, and any absence by Lawson will actually hurt.

Maryland took Cal out of the game they wanted to play and controlled the second half. They avoided turnovers, shot well (for the Terps), and continued to attack the glass (they've gotten 46% of their own misses in the last 4 games). Vasquez turned in a very strong 27-point performance, and everyone but Mosley put in good efficient contributions on offense.

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Neal	29	24	5	48	36	12	77	60	17
Vasquez	34	28	6	50	40	10	84	68	16
Hayes	20	21	-1	38	26	12	58	47	11
Bowie	25	25	0	50	40	10	75	65	10
Milbourne	21	20	1	29	23	6	50	43	7
Mosley	16	12	4	12	14	-2	28	26	2
Gregory	18	18	0	23	21	2	41	39	2
Tucker	7	7	0	0	0	0	7	7	0
	34	31	3	50	40	10	84	71	13

Memphis, though, is a bad matchup for them. Maryland is going to have a very, very difficult time putting points on the board against the Tiger defense that has been completely shutting people down (Matadors excepted). Dozier and Taggart could have big days against a small Maryland front line, and Tyreke Evans is going to get into the land all day long.

Duke came out and looked like a 2-seed. They dominated the matchup with Binghamton, turning them over with frequency and dominating the smaller Bearcats on the glass (17 of 31 offensive, 21 of 27 defensive). - The Bearcats hit shots - nearly a .600 efg% - but did really nothing else. Duke spread the offense around quite well, with 6 guys in double figures, assists on 21 of 28 field goals, and only 1 guy (Henderson) playing more than 30 minutes. Jon Scheyer continued his run of ridiculously efficient performances (15 points on 9 shots, 4 assists, and 6-6 from the line), and Nolan looked sharp attacking the basket. Here's the HD Box from the Binghamton game - as you'll see, the final margin (24) made it look closer than it was, as the end of the bench got outscored by 6 in garbage time.



Now comes a matchup with Texas, the only 7-seed to advance out of the first round (and they did so comfortably). The 'Horns have a dangerous inside/outside combo in AJ Abrams (joining PJ Tucker, TJ Ford, and DJ Augustin in the Texas all-initial hall of fame) and Dexter Pittman. On the season, Texas was a terrible shooting team - 202nd in the country in efg% - but relentlessly attacked the offensive glass, gathering almost 40% of their misses. Duke will have to force misses and box out. Aside from Abrams, there's no one dangerous from 3, and they get a very small percentage of their points from beyond the arc. The 11 threes they hit on Thursday was very much an aberration. On defense, Texas hangs their hat on stopping shots - teams shoot just .458 efg% against them, and they block a lot of shots - but the rest of their defense is below average. Still, Texas has the talent to play like a top-10 team, and can be a very dangerous opponent (particularly with an arena full of Heels fans egging them on).

Binghamton Preview and ACC Thursday Games

Every Duke fan with a functioning long-term memory is having nervous Belmont flashbacks right about now. The facial similarities are there - small school, lots of little guards, name starts with B, etc. I'm here to assuage some of those fears. Here are some key difference. First, Belmont was a very dangerous offensive team. They shot and passed the ball extremely well, and had three players - Hare, Dansby, and Dotson - with top 300 offensive ratings. They ran a spread-and-back-cut system that has historically given Duke problems. Binghamton, on the other hand, is one of the 5 worst offensive teams in the tourney and doesn't really have a single efficient, medium- or high-usage player. They don't shoot the ball well, and really don't pass it well. Mayben and Rivera mostly try to create for themselves - this is a team that can get bogged down in the half court. Second, Belmont had some size to keep Duke honest. 6'8" Mathew Dotson started and played 22 minutes and 6'9" Keaton Belcher played another 11. That's 33 minutes of at least one guy with size. Binghamton, on the other hand, starts no one over 6'6" and their two tall players got about 30 minutes total in the three AEC tournament games. Belmont was a very adequate rebounding team - Binghamton is poor, particularly on the defensive end. Third, Belmont had experience against decent teams and in the NCAAs. They played 3 top-100 squads in 2007-08 - Cincinnati, Alabama, and Xavier - and won 2 of the 3 (Xavier, on the other hand, destroyed them). They also had made the tourney the two years before, losing to Georgetown by 25 and UCLA by 34, but getting the novelty nerves out of the way. Binghamton has never been here before, and played a ridiculously easy schedule. Their non-conference games were against Masnfield (non-DI), Quinnipiac, Central Connecticut, George Washington, Utah Valley (twice), Rutgers, Bucknell, Manhattan, Rider, Tulane, and Marist. Their toughest opponent all year was Vermont. Unlike Belmont, which was exposed to high-talent teams before and during that season, Binghamton hasn't seen anything close to what Duke will roll out.

Everything about this matchup looks like a comfortable Duke win. Binghamton apparently runs a press, which has given Duke trouble this year. But if they can't turn the Devils over, they'll be in for a long night. Buckets will be difficult to come by, and they shouldn't get many second chances. Binghamton is going to be at a serious size disadvantage. Their starting lineup runs 5'11", 6'2", 6'3", 6'4", and 6'6" - every starter for Duke is 6'4" or better. Personally, even though Binghamton is a pressing team and filled with quick guards, I think Duke should try to aggressively press them early, force turnovers, and run them out of the building. I would also be surprised if Duke shoots a ton of threes - I think they'll exploit Singler's, Henderson's and Scheyer's size advantages and really attack the rim. Obviously every NCAA game creates the risk of a loss, but I can't help but think that this is a very good matchup for Duke.

I feel the same way about UNC's matchup with Radford, with or without Ty Lawson. The Highlanders have a very capable big man in Artsiom Parakhouski. He's been a superb rebounder - top 50 nationally both on offense and defense - he blocks shots, gets to the line, shoots well from the field, and is not turnover prone. He killed VMI in the Big South championship game. Of course, his ability to stay out of foul trouble against Hansbrough is uncertain - he's been relatively immune to fouls, but this assignment is very different. Aside from Parakhouski, though, this team is not good on offense. They trot out no less than five players who don't produce a point per possession on offense, including Amir Johnson, who leads the team in minutes. Like Binghamton, Radford just doesn't have the profile of a typical low-seed Cinderella. They'll try to control pace, and if they do, they might keep the final margin under 20. But there's just no realistic possibility of a win, or even a game that's interesting in the last 5-10 minutes.

Kansas City is ACC country tomorrow, as both Clemson and Maryland have their opening matchups there. Maryland plays first, drawing the Cal Bears. This is actually a reasonably favorable draw for the Terps. Cal's not a particularly big team - Jamal Boykin, of all people, gets the most minutes of anyone 6'8" or above (by the way, if he's 6'8", he's grown since his transfer). Cal's also not particularly adept at forcing turnovers, and they don't block shots. In general, the Bears don't play good defense. That said, their offense is very dangerous - 12th in the country in efficiency, and the best three-point shooting team in the nation (although they don't take full advantage of that skill, shooting just 26% of their attempts from downtown, 311th in the nation). Randle, Christopher, and Robertson are all deadly from outside. Vasquez will need to have a good game for Maryland to win, but Cal should give him every opportunity to do so. I can easily see him putting the Terps on his back and carrying them into the second round.

Clemson takes the court next, in what may be the biggest contrast in styles in the first round. Clemson presses the full court, seeks to push pace and force turnovers, while Michigan controls pace, falls back in the 1-3-1 zone and shoots a lot of threes. The Wolverines have been extremely good this season at avoiding turnovers - 16th best in the country and 9th best in the tournament. What they're not, however, is a particularly strong defensive team. The only thing they do well is avoid fouls - teams shoot well, rebound well, and don't commit turnovers against Michigan. Rivers and Oglesby are going to get to shoot a lot of threes tomorrow, and KC will be charged with locking up Manny Harris. Ultimately, I think this matchup falls in Clemson's favor - Booker and Rivers can neutralize Harris and Sims (Michigan's best players), and the Tigers can generate enough turnovers to get free points. In what's likely to be a low pace game, those free points will loom larger.

ACC in the NIT

Virginia Tech and Duquesne played one heck of a game. Double overtime, with all 5 Hokie starters playing over 40 minutes. AD Vassallo, Jeff Allen, and JT Thompson led the way, although none had the game Aaron Jackson had. Setting a career high in the final game of your career is one heck of a way to go out. For the Hokies, it was a great time to have their best offensive game of the season, including 31-47 on two point shots, a .648 efg%, 1.40 PPWS, and turnovers on just 1 of every 8 possessions. The Hokies will host breakfast with the Bears next - 11am local Saturday morning against Baylor.

Miami made it a clean sweep for the two ACC teams in the NIT, winning rather comfortably at Providence. Jack McClinton had a fantastic game, knocking down 7-14 from downtown. Lance Hurdle and James Dews played some nice complimentary roles, but this was was really all about Jack. Like Mills on St. Mary's, he has the capability of carrying his team to the Garden without much help. The journey continues this weekend at Florida.

Catching Up with the ACC Champs

It came to my attention last week that I neglected to do any write-up, post any stats, etc. on the last Duke-UNC game. I'll start by remedying that. Jon Scheyer had the best game of any Duke player since JJ Redick. His efficiency was quite simply ridiculous - 24 points on 7 shots from the floor, plus 5 assists without a turnover. He became the latest in a long line of ACC point guards this season to absolutely torch the Heels (as an aside, I had to chuckle when Jimmy Dykes went on (and on, and on) during the UNC-VT game about how much Carolina missed Lawson defensively. Bobby Frasor is a far superior defender to Lawson, and he did a nice job holding Delaney in check. If forced to choose, I might even favor Larry Drew's defense over Ty's).

Once again, Duke was in this game until the bitter end. They had another killer play where Singler hit the end line on a rebound - Duke would have had the ball down four with a chance to make it a one possession game, and instead UNC converted three points and essentially made the final outcome academic. Carolina basically won the game in the first 7:16 of the second half. After Elliot Williams hit a jumper to extend the halftime lead to three, Carolina went on a 17-7 run to take a 55-48 lead. For the rest of the game, Duke never had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead - they cut it to two twice, and Carolina immediately responded with scores. In the end, the analysis for this one was simple (Clark Kellogg, to his credit, nailed it) - Carolina had Ty Lawson, and we didn't. After Duke cut it to 65-63, Lawson scored or assisted on all of the next 13 Tar Heel points (basically everything they got for the rest of the game except Hansbrough's final FT).

Even though it was a loss, there was a lot for Duke to be optimistic about. They came in with a good game plan, and slowed Lawson down much better than in the first game. On offense, they largely got exactly what they wanted - Duke had some very, very good looks at the hoop that didn't go down; at the very least, they dictated what would happen on that end of the court much more than Carolina did.

Here's the HD box from that game. Again, this one illustrates the limited value +/- has when you're talking about players who don't sit much - Scheyer sat for 2 possessions that we won 2-0, which ended up giving him a team low -10. I think it goes without saying that he was not Duke's least valuable cog.



And, Carolina's plus/minus for the game.

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Ellington	31	26	5	37	29	8	68	55	13
Lawson	31	28	3	41	32	9	72	60	12
Thompson	25	25	0	35	24	11	60	49	11
Hansbrough	33	32	1	32	26	6	65	58	7
Green	29	33	-4	32	25	7	61	58	3
Davis	14	13	1	10	10	0	24	23	1
Frasor	18	21	-3	14	10	4	32	31	1
Zeller	2	4	-2	4	4	0	6	8	-2
Copeland	0	2	-2	0	0	0	0	2	-2
Drew	7	11	-4	0	0	0	7	11	-4
	38	39	-1	41	32	9	79	71	8

On to the ACCT. The Maryland game has already gotten coverage, but the BC box wasn't up in time for me to run the numbers before Day 2 started. Biko Paris had the game of his life against the Devils, hitting all 5 of his shots from the field and ending up with 15 (at least a season high). His production was extremely valuable to the Eagles - they were +17! when he was in the game. Those numbers, of course, reflect the "runs" nature of the game. Duke started out 11-2 and 17-11. BC then finished the half on an 18-5 run. Duke responded to open the second half with a 32-17 push, and then BC closed out with a 19-12 finish. Paris was on the court for every part of BC's runs and very little of Duke's. That's how you end up +17.

For the Devils, Kyle Singler carried the day - 26 points on 15 shots plus 9 rebounds (4 offensive). Henderson struggled with silly fouls early, but came in to hit the go ahead shot (and ultimately the game winner) down the stretch (side note - we should really post him up more, particularly when he has a size advantage). It was a real survive-and-advance game for Duke. I don't know what it is about BC this year - both on paper and to the eye during the game, they don't look that good. But they beat UNC, beat Duke, and took the Devils right down to the wire the second time around. Here's the HD Box:



And, BC's plus/minus:

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Paris	27	14	13	22	18	4	49	32	17
Roche	14	5	9	22	19	3	36	24	12
Rice	29	19	10	36	44	-8	65	63	2
Dunn	5	4	1	0	0	0	5	4	1
Sanders	13	5	8	36	44	-8	49	49	0
Southern	24	18	6	14	25	-11	38	43	-5
Trapani	18	18	0	36	44	-8	54	62	-8
Jackson	0	10	-10	0	0	0	0	10	-10
Raji	15	17	-2	14	26	-12	29	43	-14
	29	22	7	36	44	-8	65	66	-1

Finally, the ACC title game was Duke at almost its very best. They played excellent defense in the first half (and most of the second half too, really), holding FSU to just 2 field goals in the half's last 24 possessions. On offense, for the first time in a long time, Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer all had good games together (and Nolan Smith added valuable penetration ability). When those three are on like they were Sunday, Duke is very tough to stop. Duke won the game on the 3-point line (first time in a long while where that was really the case), but that doesn't mean they won by playing on the perimeter. They were at their best when they spread the court and played drive/draw/dish - guys got bettter looks, shot the ball in rhythm, and converted. When they shot 1-on-1 threes, or just passed the ball around the perimeter for jumpers, the offense was far less effective.

Most encouraging was the way Duke responded to an early second half push from FSU. The Noles cut a 14-point halftime lead to 6 in one heck of a hurry. Duke then scored 23 points over the next 8 possessions, scoring on each trip and getting the lead to the game-high 22. While FSU made it interesting down the stretch thanks to hot shooting, stupid Duke fouls, and poor free throw shooting on our part, the game was essentially over after those 8 possessions.

Jon Scheyer was awarded tournament MVP, and it was richly deserved (I would have had no quarrel with Toney Douglas being selected, as he was sensational). Scheyer posted offensive ratings of 134.6, 154.9, and 164.6 in the three games, hitting 4-6 from 2, 12-25 from 3, and 21-25 from the line. He was the Devils' steadying force throughout the weekend, and largely responsible for the miniscule number of turnovers (4) committed against FSU. Kudos to Jon for an MVP-caliber performance.

HD Box


And FSU's plus/minus

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Hoff	0	0	0	13	9	4	13	9	4
Gibson	3	2	1	0	0	0	3	2	1
Kitchen	13	17	-4	18	15	3	31	32	-1
Dulkys	0	8	-8	37	30	7	37	38	-1
Alabi	12	26	-14	23	11	12	35	37	-2
Singleton	19	22	-3	38	39	-1	57	61	-4
Reid	6	15	-9	19	16	3	25	31	-6
Douglas	21	35	-14	43	36	7	64	71	-7
DeMercy	10	15	-5	22	25	-3	32	40	-8
Loucks	8	18	-10	24	25	-1	32	43	-11
Echefu	13	17	-4	3	14	-11	16	31	-15
	21	35	-14	48	44	4	69	79	-10

ACC Semis Wrap and Finals Preview

One thing was clear from the two semifinal games today in Atlanta - don't expect an easy whistle. Officials in both games let guys maul each other in the paint - lots of contact on layups went uncalled, and lots of leaps over the back on rebounds went uncalled. From what I saw, each team suffered equally - everyone simply got beat up with near impunity. Part of me was yelling at the TV, watching things that were fouls all season go uncalled. Another part of me was thankful, knowing that the NCAA tournament tends to involve swallowed whistles, and thinking that it was good for the ACC's elite teams to get a preview for that kind of officiating. And, finally, part of me was disappointed that, on semifinal Saturday, I knew the first thing I was going to be writing about was the style of officiating.

But enough of that. Today's attendees at the Georgia Dome saw two extremely hard fought games. Toney Douglas was again exceptional for the Noles, leading the way with 27 points and a 132 offensive rating while using 30.5% of FSU's possessions. In case you're counting at home, that's 17 straight games of greater than 23% usage and an offensive rating of 108 or higher. In short, he's really, really good. Chris Singleton struggled with fouls and turnovers, but hit a couple of huge jumpers (the almost 3 to put them up 66-62, and then the actual three shortly thereafter), and Solomon Alabi showed how much he's developed since the start of the year. He's averaged 11, 6, and 2.5 blocks over the last 6, and consistently gives them positive minutes.

For Carolina, one set of numbers told me how much they missed Lawson - pace. In ACC play, UNC averaged 74.7 possessions per game. In two games in Atlanta, they let Virginia Tech and FSU hold them to 65 and 64 possessions, respectively. Carolina's offense was still strong - 149 points in 129 possessions. But they never showed the kind of speed they have when Lawson is in the game, and it cost them the easier transition opportunities they feast on when he's running the show. Tyler Hansbrough did pretty much everything he could (it's to his great credit that I was shocked when he failed to convert after given the ball with the Heels down 1 in the last minute - those are plays he always seems to make), but it proved to be not quite enough without UNC's motor in the game. Also, Danny Green never wants to see Atlanta again - 3 of 25 from the field, for his two worst offensive games of the entire season.

Here's the +/- from the early game. Drew's numbers surprised me, but Davis's didn't. He played much better than Deon Thompson. He's going to be a serious defensive force next season (if still a little raw offensively).

				Florida State
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Kitchen	27	20	7	44	38	6	71	58	13
Alabi	27	25	2	41	33	8	68	58	10
Dulkys	11	13	-2	17	13	4	28	26	2
Reid	21	23	-2	10	7	3	31	30	1
Douglas	24	29	-5	44	38	6	68	67	1
Singleton	10	11	-1	21	21	0	31	32	-1
Loucks	7	8	-1	0	0	0	7	8	-1
Gibson	2	2	0	3	5	-2	5	7	-2
Echefu	8	14	-6	34	31	3	42	45	-3
DeMercy	8	15	-7	6	4	2	14	19	-5
	29	32	-3	44	38	6	73	70	3
				North Carolina
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Drew	16	6	10	20	17	3	36	23	13
Davis	19	12	7	22	20	2	41	32	9
Ellington	31	27	4	36	37	-1	67	64	3
Zeller	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	4	0
Hansbrough	23	27	-4	36	37	-1	59	64	-5
Thompson	18	15	3	18	31	-13	36	46	-10
Green	26	25	1	30	42	-12	56	67	-11
Frasor	23	29	-6	28	36	-8	51	65	-14
	32	29	3	38	44	-6	70	73	-3

In the evening game, Maryland fought the good fight, but they just didn't quite have enough firepower to beat the Devils. They deserve a lot of credit for relentlessly attacking the boards in Atlanta - after putting up one of the worst offensive rebounding seasons in the league, they got over 40% of their own misses against both Wake and Duke. Vasquez again struggled against the Devils - 14 points on 17 shots plus 4 turnovers. On the season, he's produced just 32 points in 41.5 possessions used against Duke, and didn't post an offensive rating higher than 93 in any of the three games. Eric Hayes was ridiculous down the stretch to keep the game close - he hit a series of tough, well-defended shots off a variety of different moves from a variety of different places on the court - it had me saying "you've got to be kidding me" more than once.

Singler, Scheyer, and Smith had very nice games for Duke. Nolan played harassing defense and did solid point duty, hitting double figures for the first time in over a month. He also contributed three assists without turning the ball over. Scheyer was again a steadying hand at the lead guard and shot the ball well - in two games in Atlanta, he's 8-19 from 3, 2-2 from 2, and 8-10 from the line (yes, his two misses have come in key spots, but it's tough to blame a guy shooting 80%). And Singler showed that there are other ways to contribute when your shots aren't falling. On a day when he was just 3-12 from the field (and 1-9 from 2), he attacked the offensive glass and got himself to the line, ending up with a very solid offensive rating for his efforts.

K put the game in the hands of 5 guys. At the 12:05 mark, Henderson and McClure came in for Thomas and Williams, and that was Duke's last substitution. Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, McClure, and Singler played the game's final 20 possessions without a sub, and did enough to deliver Duke the victory. That lineup ended up just +2 on the game, but those five were clearly Duke's best players tonight, and they did what was necessary to deliver the win. Nolan proved especially valuable - the squad was +17! when he was in the game, and got outscored 16-5 when he was sitting.

Here's the HD Box, and the plus/minus for Maryland:

				Maryland
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Tucker	5	0	5	0	3	-3	5	3	2
Bowie	18	17	1	19	19	0	37	36	1
Dupree	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neal	28	24	4	20	25	-5	48	49	-1
Vasquez	30	29	1	31	35	-4	61	64	-3
Milbourne	25	28	-3	23	25	-2	48	53	-5
Mosley	21	23	-2	16	20	-4	37	43	-6
Gregory	7	12	-5	19	20	-1	26	32	-6
Hayes	16	27	-11	27	28	-1	43	55	-12
	30	32	-2	31	35	-4	61	67	-6

Tomorrow will be the third Duke/FSU matchup. Both games have been close Duke wins - by 8 at FSU and by 3 in Cameron in a nailbiter. The Noles have had difficulty stopping Singler and Henderson - the two have combined for 81 points in the two games and are a collective +39. The two games couldn't look more different. In the first, neither team could shoot, but FSU pounded the glass (47.92 ORB%) and turned Duke over (turnovers in 1 of every 4 Duke possessions). In the second, the Noles lit it up from the field (.567 efg%), but had no presence on the offensive glass (just 25.71 ORB%) and couldn't get the Devils to cough it up (turnovers in 1 of every 11 Duke possessions). Neither team needs this game for tournament reasons - I think Duke is locked into a 2 seed and FSU should have a 4 sewn up (although maybe they'd be a 5 with a loss, which is a bigger difference than one might think, since the 12s are usually the last at large teams, and the 13s are usually the first auto-bid teams, and there can be a substantial talent gap between the two). But both teams have played this weekend like they really want the title, and there will be zero punches pulled tomorrow afternoon.

ACC Day 2 Wrap and Day 3 Preview

Virginia Tech has no one to blame but themselves. They had every opportunity to win, and couldn't execute when they needed to. Plus, their foul trouble killed them. Vassallo had a terrific game, and the Hokies were +7 (56-49) when he was in. But his foul trouble forced him to sit much more than usual, and the team was -10 (20-30) when he was sitting next to the coaches. The numbers were somewhat similar for Allen - +2 when he was in, -5 when he was out. Those two were the only Hokies with positive +/- numbers, and they were the two who struggled with fouls all game. Now, they'll likely be heading to the NIT once again. The Hokies will look back on this season as one of near misses - the half court heave by Xavier, the loss to Wisconsin, the terrible loss to Georgia, etc., etc.

For Carolina, they just don't look like the same team without Lawson on the court. The post players all had very nice games, as they had size and skill advantages over Tech's big men - Ed Davis in particular played very well. And Hansbrough made all the key plays when the counted - the big layup, clutch free throws, the "jump ball." For UNC's sake, they need to stop him from showing off his jumper to the NBA scouts and get back down in the post where he's close to unstoppable at the college level. There's no reason he should spend so much time floating around 15-20 feet from the basket. As a bonus, here's the +/- from game 1:

				Virginia Tech
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Vassallo	23	15	8	33	34	-1	56	49	7
Allen	22	19	3	21	22	-1	43	41	2
Diakite	37	36	1	20	22	-2	57	58	-1
Thorns	17	20	-3	11	10	1	28	30	-2
Bell	11	13	-2	0	0	0	11	13	-2
Thompson	22	24	-2	27	28	-1	49	52	-3
Davila	3	7	-4	0	0	0	3	7	-4
Delaney	37	41	-4	34	36	-2	71	77	-6
Hudson	38	40	-2	24	28	-4	62	68	-6
	42	43	-1	34	36	-2	76	79	-3
				North Carolina
		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Davis	29	23	6	14	13	1	43	36	7
Drew	21	20	1	10	6	4	31	26	5
Frasor	39	34	5	30	32	-2	69	66	3
Ellington	40	38	2	32	31	1	72	69	3
Hansbrough	33	35	-2	34	29	5	67	64	3
Watts	17	14	3	0	0	0	17	14	3
Zeller	4	5	-1	4	3	1	8	8	0
Thompson	20	21	-1	20	23	-3	40	44	-4
Green	12	20	-8	36	33	3	48	53	-5
	43	42	1	36	34	2	79	76	3

In game 2, FSU played just well enough to win. Toney Douglas was again exceptional; 25 points and extremely good perimeter defense. Lewis Clinch scored a lot, but needed way too many shots - unlike Thursday, his points today were not efficient. For the second time this season, FSU and Georgia Tech played to a defensive stand-still. The collective offensive rating for the game was just about 90, which is over a point and a half per possession below the league average for the season. Also, memo to Jimmy Dykes: Gani Lawal does not miss free throws because he lacks "toughness" or a "big valentine"; he misses free throws because he's not a good free throw shooter.

FSU should be hungry to get another shot at the Tar Heels. They had them all but beat in Tallahassee, and then some questionable decision-making (and Ty Lawson playing Tyus Edney) had them walking away with the L. Hansbrough really struggled in that game, with 8 points, 5 boards, 2 turnovers, and 0! free throw attempts (and some foul trouble of his own). He can't afford a repeat of that kind of performance with Lawson out. Nor can Danny Green afford a repeat of today's shooting.

On to the evening session. Last year, Wake had a serious style problem. They had a team that did not shoot the 3 well but that loved to take 3s. They hit barely over 30%, but took about 20 a game. This year, as they got even bigger, Gaudio totally reversed course - they eschewed the perimeter and focused inside, inside, inside, taking a lower percentage of their attempts from three than any team in America. Coming into tonight, they had attempted 11 threes or fewer in half their games. Against Maryland, they have a huge size advantage - Johnson, Aminu, McFarland, Weaver, and Woods are all taller than Neal, Gregory, or Milbourne. And yet for some reason, as soon as Maryland dropped into a 2-3, the Deacs fell in love with the outside shot, to their great detriment. Wake took 25 threes, the most they attempted in any game this year, and made just 3, on their way to shooting under 30% from the field for the game. For Maryland, Vasquez had another solid game, and as a team, the Terps finally took advantage of their skill at the free throw line - 26 attempts tonight against just 2 when they played in College Park. Maryland also had a surprisingly effective day on the offensive glass - getting 45.4% of their misses was their best offensive rebounding performance in ACC play, and came against Wake's front line to boot.

In the nightcap, Duke and BC both struggled with shooting in the first half, heated up a bit in the second half, and came down with an exciting end to a day of close games. I'll have more on this one tomorrow morning when I get a chance to run the lineup numbers and see how the +/- turned out. But it was a good "survive and advance" win for the Devils. Maryland is going to be itching to beat Duke, and beating any team three times in the same season is difficult (I could be wrong, but I believe the last time we did that to Maryland was in 2001, and all three wins were classics). For BC, they shouldn't have to sweat too much - 22 wins, including victories over UNC and Duke (and a 1 point loss to Duke), plus 10 wins against ACC play. But you know they wish they could get those Harvard and St. Louis games back. If Baylor, Tulsa, Mississippi State, or USC wins their conference tourneys, bubble bids will get stolen.

ACC Day 1 Wrap and Day 2 Preview

Solid, but not spectacular day 1 for the ACC. Georgia Tech made the big headlines with its Clemson upset, and Virginia Tech made a good statement with a convincing win over Miami.

Games 1/5 - Virginia Tech over Miami, against North Carolina
The Hurricanes picked a very bad time to have their worst shooting and worst offensive rebounding game of the season. The Hokies held them to .404 efg% and just 19% on offensive rebounds. Nobody on Miami got to double figures. For Virginia Tech, Malcolm Delaney overcame a poor shooting performance from the field (1-10) with a huge night at the line (14-15). JT Thompson made solid contributions with 12 and 8 without missing a shot on the floor.

So now the Hokies have to deal with North Carolina. The game in Blacksburg last week was a closse one, despite the fact that Virginia Tech was ice cold from three and couldn't turn UNC over. The Hokies played even with Carolina on the glass and held them to a sub 50% shooting night. Lawson, who had 22 and 5 assists, will not play. Roy should look to Bobby Frasor as the replacement point guard, because Drew has been the single worst player in the ACC this season - he has an offensive rating of 53.86 and turns it over on more than half of the possessions he uses. If VT can capitalize on his absence with a win, their tournament profile looks a lot better.

Games 2/6 - Georgia Tech over Clemson, against Florida State
The Jackets had their best offensive game of the ACC and their best since dropping 92 on Winston Salem State in the first game of the season. The Jackets went 28-45 from 2, and hit the glass for 43% of their own misses, exploiting the interior defense that has been a weakness for Clemson all season. Gani Lawal - 20 and 14, including 7 on offense - and Lewis Clinch - 32 points on 20 shots - led the way for Georgia Tech. This is their whole post-season unless they win it all - it's nice to see them get out and just play good basketball. Clemson's now allowed 7 of their last 9 opponents to score over a point per possession.

The game between FSU and Georgia Tech earlier this year was, not surprisingly, a defensive struggle. The final was 62-58 in a 70 possession game, with both teams cold from 3 (a combined 6 of 38). Toney Douglas had his second-worst game of the conference season, with "just" a 108 offensive rating, and not racking up an assist. The Noles offense is playing much better since January - 6 of the last 9 with at least a point per possession (and 2 of the other three with 0.99 points per). This game is pretty much meaningless except for FSU's ultimate seed line. Advancing to the semis, or even finals, could make the Noles a 4.

Games 3/7 - Maryland over NC State, against Wake Forest
74-69 doesn't necessarily look like an offensive shootout, but it is in a 59 possession game. NC State did their work inside (18-32 from 2, plus 18 of 33 offensive rebounds), and Maryland did theirs on the perimeter (9 of 16 from 3, 8 steals). Eric Hayes was the Terps' spark, hitting 5-6 from downtown and leading the team with 21 points off the bench. Vasquez also had a solid double-double with 17 and 10 assists (and did it efficiently!).

Now Maryland gets another crack at the Deacs. Last weekend, they had Wake Forest on the ropes, but allowed them to escape with a 65-63 win. Maryland went to the line just twice and got hammered on the glass - only some decent outside shooting and Wake Forest turnovers kept them around. Vasquez had one of those games that looks good superficially (16 points, 7 assists) until you realize it took him 24 shots and 4 turnovers to get there. Al-Farouq Aminu was huge for Wake, with a 16 point 14 rebound (6 offensive) double-double. This game means a whole lot to Maryland - with the way the rest of the bubble has been performing, a win over Wake would do a whole lot for their chances of getting a bid.

Games 4/8 - Boston College over Virginia, against Duke
BC coasted against UVA (the ACC's worst team this season, regardless of whether they got more conference wins than Georgia Tech). Rakim Sanders, who has been their best player down the stretch, was the Eagles' best again last night. BC lived on the line, scoring 31 of their 76 points at the stripe. Recognizing that the calls were coming, they focused inside, inside, inside, making just 1 three. For Virginia, Diane had a nice finish to his career, scoring 24 on just 13 shots, including 4-6 from downtown. Why Leitao didn't let him play through his struggles this season is beyond me.

Now the Eagles will get Duke, who they beat in Chestnut Hill earlier this season. BC had their best shooting game of the season by a huge margin - 22 of 33 from 2 and 8 of 18 from 3, for a .667 efg%. They hit some contested shots, but the real key to the game is that they got a lot of uncontested shots. Duke hung around in that game by hitting the glass (18 of 37 offensive rebounds) and turning BC over (19 in a 69 possession game), but hit just 3 of 16 from outside and couldn't keep up with the scoring. This was the last game before Scheyer took over the point, and Duke will be hungry to get another shot at Boston College with their new look.

SOS and Tourney Preview

Let's start with strength of schedule. Like last season, I made a full home/road adjustment, so Duke only gets credit for playing Clemson as the Tigers played at home, and only gets credit for playing Virginia as the Cavaliers played on the road. To start, here's each team's home and road efficiency numbers:

Home

Duke		18.79
North Carolina		18.12
Clemson		14.17
Wake Forest		10.78
Florida State		8.11
Miami		6.38
Maryland		0.84
Virginia Tech		-1.19
Boston College		-2.28
NC State		-3.59
Virginia		-6.11
Georgia Tech		-7.40

Road

North Carolina		8.50
Wake Forest		-0.05
Florida State		-0.31
Clemson		-0.45
Duke		-1.02
Boston College		-2.01
Miami		-6.32
Virginia Tech		-7.28
NC State		-9.14
Georgia Tech		-12.12
Virginia		-14.03
Maryland		-15.26

Remarkably this year, only one team (Carolina) was on the plus side on the road. Duke had the biggest cap between home and road performance (helped by routs of Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Virginia, hurt by the blowout at Clemson). The top 5 teams in the league were top 5 both at home and on the road, while the bottom was a little bit more spread out. Boston College was the most road immune team - actually better on the road than at home, although by an extremely small margin.

So, next up, here's what everyone's schedule looked like.
Offense (ranked by best opponent offense to worst):
Georgia Tech - 105.43
Virginia - 105.41
Florida State - 104.89
Duke - 104.83
Miami - 104.82
Wake Forest - 104.57
NC State - 103.81
Virginia Tech - 103.77
North Carolina - 103.31
Maryland - 103.30
Boston College - 102.75
Clemson - 102.07

Defense (ranked by best opponent defense to worst):
Virginia Tech - 102.86
North Carolina - 103.09
Maryland - 103.23
NC State - 103.46
Duke - 103.52
Clemson - 103.76
Wake Forest - 104.16
Boston College - 104.27
Miami - 104.59
Virginia - 104.91
Florida State - 105.02
Georgia Tech - 106.97

The Jackets' offensive futility is remarkable considering their opponents' general defensive futility. Credit goes to Carolina considering they faced one of the stronger defensive tests in the league, and still were dominant offensively (their offensive numbers were actually suppressed slightly by their schedule).

Finally, here's the schedule, by best opponent efficiency margin (so toughest opponents) to worst:
Overall
Duke - 1.31
Virginia Tech - 0.92
Virginia - 0.49
Wake Forest - 0.40
NC State - 0.36
Miami - 0.23
North Carolina - 0.21
Maryland - 0.07
Florida State - -0.12
Boston College - -1.52
Georgia Tech - -1.54
Clemson - -1.69

The schedule adjustments moved some teams around, but was not too disruptive. By raw margin, here's how the team stacked up:

UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Florida State
Miami
Boston College
Virginia Tech
NC State
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Virginia

When the strength of schedule adjustments are made, Wake and Clemson swap places, Virginia Tech and BC swap places, and Virginia and Georgia Tech swap places.

On to the tournament. As you can see from the list above, UNC actually got a tough draw out of the 8/9 game - adjusted for schedule, Miami and Virginia Tech were the 6th and 7th best teams in the ACC. Wake's draw is much more favorable - neither NC State or Maryland was one of the 8 best teams.

As you can see from the odds report below, the top 5 teams are comfortably above the rest. FSU and Clemson have lower odds of winning because they have the prospect of facing each other on Friday, but all 5 are above 47% to reach the semis and the other 7 are below 10%. So, without further ado, here's the odds (derived from a log5 analysis using pythagorean winning percentage based on schedule-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency - yike, that was a mouthful):

			Quarters	Semis	Finals	Win
1	North Carolina		100.00%	86.53%	65.53%	41.86%
3	Duke		100.00%	88.98%	61.52%	32.24%
2	Wake Forest		100.00%	84.17%	33.56%	12.87%
5	Clemson		91.08%	47.90%	14.94%	5.79%
4	Florida State		100.00%	51.22%	14.96%	5.46%
9	Miami		60.83%	9.36%	3.41%	0.89%
6	Boston College		70.68%	9.29%	2.60%	0.42%
8	Virginia Tech		39.17%	4.11%	1.11%	0.21%
10	NC State		54.41%	8.03%	1.12%	0.14%
7	Maryland		45.59%	7.81%	0.95%	0.10%
11	Virginia		29.32%	1.73%	0.26%	0.02%
12	Georgia Tech		8.92%	0.88%	0.05%	0.00%

Player Awards

This year, for the first time, I'm going to go down to three teams, because there were a ton of highly deserving players in conference this season. Actually, the player spread didn't have a lot of middle this year - there were several players at the top, and several players who did very little besides play roles. As I was writing team previews this year, I kept finding myself saying things like "they only have 3 or 4 good players, and everyone else is very, very much behind." So, without further ado, here's how my first team stacked up:

5) Jeff Teague - Wake Forest
Teague started off hot, fading a little down the stretch, but still finished with extremely strong overall numbers. He scored nearly 20 a game, dished out just over three assists, and did a fantastic job getting to the line (where he shot over 80%). Teague ended up posting a strong 116 offensive rating while using over 25% of the Deacs' possessions. On a more intangible level, Teague was the guy who gave Wake Forest its attitude and its edge. He was the best player on one of the three best teams in the conference, and he deserves first-team recognition.

4) Gerald Henderson - Duke
Henderson was the highest usage player of anyone in the ACC, using just shy of 30% of Duke's possessions while he was in the game. Like Teague, he had his peaks and valleys. When he's on, he just might be the best player in the league. There were games this year where he was unstoppable on offense. When he's off, he had a tendency to dominate the ball and get jumper happy. His offensive rating faded down the stretch - at 111.43, it's the lowest of the 5 first-teamers. Henderson's raw stats were quite strong - almost 20 and 6 per game, while turning the ball over just 16% of his possessions. Not that this counts in the award calculation, but he's also the most vicious dunker in the ACC.

3) Tyler Hansbrough - UNC
The only post player and only repeat member of this first team. Hansbrough had less impressive numbers this year than last, dropping in his field goal percentage, recording fewer double doubles, eschewing the offensive glass, and getting to the line with less frequency. I think he tried too hard to showcase a perimeter game and spent too little time doing what he does best - putting guys on his back on the blocks and scoring over, around, and through them. Still, he scored nearly 20 points a game, rarely turned the ball over (just 11.9%), and posted the second best offensive rating in the league at 126.85.

2) Tywon Lawson - UNC
Lawson was ridiculously effective on offense. He put up a 130 offensive rating on the season, combining excellent shooting (55%/45%/86%, at a total of 1.29 PPWS - best in the ACC by a wide margin) with great ball control (2.68 A/TO ratio and assists on a full third of his teammates scores, best in the league) and almost nothing negative on the offensive end. His usage is the lowest of anyone on any of the all-ACC teams, but he very clearly paces the Heels and is the key to their success. Three of his four worst performances came in UNC's three conference losses, including his only two games with offensive ratings under 100. The only thing that keeps him out of his top spot is his defense. Matadors make more of an effort to stay in front of the bull than he does with opposing point guards. Opponents have lit him up all season long. Lawson completely dominates one half of the court, but is entirely disinterested on the other. That leaves him short of POY.

1) Toney Douglas - Florida State
Everyone in the league has up and down games, but Toney Douglas managed to turn even his down games into successes. He's the only player in the league not to have multiple games with offensive ratings below 100 (80, against Duke, in the first game of the year), and only had two games below 110. Douglas did this all while being extremely high usage in every single game. He had just one game where he used fewer than 25% of FSU's possessions (a "low" 23% at Virginia) and six over 30%. For as much as he controlled the ball, he never turned it over - just 11% of his possessions (a far more impressive number for a lead guard than a post player). He led the ACC in scoring by a wide margin, and produced 30 more points than his nearest competition. Plus, he might be the best on-ball perimeter defender in the conference. Toney Douglas was a star in every game he played. He was also the best player in the ACC this season.

Second Team

6) Jack McClinton - Miami
McClinton might be the most dangerous offensive player in the conference. He had the best combination of usage and offensive rating in the conference - in any 100 team possessions, he would produce more points than any other player. McClinton was the only non Tar Heel with any meaningful production who had an offensive rating above 120. The only thing keeping him off first team is his defense, which was not quite Lawson-level bad, but still highly lacking.

7) Trevor Booker - Clemson
Booker was a beast on the defensive glass this year, pulling down nearly a quarter of opponent misses all by his lonesome. For a relatively short post player, he was also an excellent shot blocker. Booker also excelled on the offensive end of the court after a slow start to conference play. He had a stretch of seven games where he averaged a 140 offensive rating. Booker had a tendency to disappear at times - 7 games where his usage was below 20%. He needs to have a mindset to want to dominate every game, because most often, he can.

8) James Johnson - Wake Forest
Of all the big men in conference, Johnson is the best NBA prospect. He's a 6'9" forward with a guard's ball control and a nose for the ball off the glass. He can score facing up, with his back to the basket, and occasionally on the perimeter (although his 3pt shooting is still poor). Johnson scored over 15 points a game on the year on the back of stellar 63% 2pt shooting. He put up an offensive rating of 117 for the conference season, and carried Wake in some of their key wins, especially the Clemson sweep.

9) Kyle Singler - Duke
Singler is Duke's most versatile player, and among the most versatile in the league. He was the team's leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, putting up a 113 offensive rating while using 25% of possessions. After a rough three-game stretch against Virginia, Clemson, and Miami, Singler finished strong, playing key roles in the victories over FSU and Virginia Tech. He has a tendency to be turnover prone (they come in bunches - 9 games with 0 or 1, 5 games with 4 or more); if he can control that, he can really dominate.

10) AD Vassallo - Virginia Tech
As recently as three games ago, I would have put Malcolm Delaney in this spot. But in the second half of the season, Vassallo played far stronger. Against Duke and UNC, he scored 51 points, hitting 22 of 38 shots (including 7 of 16 threes). Plus, I have a soft spot for seniors. Vassallo was a solid 36% from beyond the arc on 100 attempts, scored just over 19 a game, and put up a very solid 116 offensive rating.

Third Team

11) Greivis Vasquez - Maryland
12) Wayne Ellington - UNC
13) Tyrese Rice - Boston College
14) Malcolm Delaney - Virginia Tech
15) Jon Scheyer - Duke

Honorable Mention: Danny Green, KC Rivers, Sylven Landesberg, Gani Lawal, Rakim Sanders.

Final Weekend Update

The Maryland Terrapins really hurt their cause on Saturday, dropping a road game to the worst team in the conference and watching Mamadi Diane go off for more than a third of his total points in the ACC this season (more on that later). They put up almost identically poor offensive performances in the two games this week - against Wake, it was a 91.37 offensive rating, .442 efg%, 26.19 ORB%, and a 2.90 FT Rate (just 2 FTAs in the game); against Virginia, those numbers go 92.85, .4467, 26.32, and 9.09 (just 6 FTAs). Maryland never took advantage of its good free throw shooting this year - yes, they don't have a big guy to throw it to down low, but they have a variety of good slashers on the perimeter who should have been driving the ball and getting themselves to the line all year long. There's simply no reason for Grievis Vasquez to be averaging just 3 FTAs a game in conference play - he should be getting himself twice that number, particularly for how often he has the ball in his hands. Now the Terps will need to do a lot of work in the ACCT to put themselves in a position to receive an at large.

For Virginia, Mamadi Diane's senior season is emblematic of Dave Leitao's poor player management. I firmly believe that he has absolutely no plan for what rotation he's going to play at the start of every game. He throws guys out there, figures out who "looks" good, and then mixes and matches semingly at random. That he never let a guy like Diane, with career numbers as good as they were, try to play through his struggles and get back into a good flow (particularly on a team with so little experienced leadership) is just the most egregious example. Take Solomon Tat - he was a starter in 8 games this season, but played fewer than 10 minutes in 6 of those games. No one except Landesberg and Scott (and to a certain extent, Baker) had any idea how big of a role they would be asked to play in any given game. Lack of stability in the rotation was obviously not the only reason UVA struggled this year - they had a big talent deficit and a lot of youth - but it certainly didn't help anyone.

Georgia Tech almost did a perfect job of playing spoiler this week, but Rakim Sanders bailed the Eagles out with their biggest shot of the season. Over the last six games, BC's best player has been Sanders, and not Rice. He's had 95 points and 33 rebounds and posted a 121 offensive rating over that span. BC sits at 9-7 in the league despite being outscored by 23 points on the season.

Miami clung to their faint NCAA hopes thanks to Jack McClinton's performance at the line (memo to Maryland - this is what happens when you get free throws). On a day when he couldn't hit a thing from the field, he went 16-16 from the line to lead Miami to the win. For NC State, it's another frustrating season - they led the conference in shooting, but thanks to no offensive rebounds and too many turnovers had just average efficiency, and thanks to terrible defense ended up with a deserved 6-10.

Duke 84, Florida St 81

Like many of you (at least those many of you who don't live in Raycom country) I did not get to see the Duke-FSU game on Tuesday. It looks like I missed a great contest. Duke again didn't shoot particularly well, but hit the big shots when it counted and again valued the basketball - the Devils committed just 7 turnovers, including none from 8:38 in the first half until Singleton tied up Scheyer on a late rebound with 13 seconds left. Nearly 3/4 of the game was turnover free basketball. When you do that, you put yourself in a fantastic position to win. The Devils also got after it on the defensive glass, holding FSU to just 26% offensive rebounding and denying their big front line easy second chance points.

There are both encouraging and discouraging take aways from this game. On the plus side, Scheyer, Singler, and Henderson all seem to be playing at their best. Each of the three is executing at a high level and showing a willingness to take over when the team needs them. The offense is also very strong of late - comfortably scoring over a point per possession and missing some of the nonslaughts that hurt them earlier this season. On the downside, this is still a team with defensive issues. FSU shot over 50% from the 2 and 8-17 from 3. The overall scoring defense wasn't terrible, considering it was a 75 possession game, but Duke really needs to find a way to stop teams from making shots.

Also of concern is the injury bug. Smith is still out with the concussion, Thomas has a bum ankle, Zoubek may (does?) have a broken nose. Miles Plumlee may get called upon to play a meaningful role against the Heels on Sunday since there's no one else to go big with.

Finally, for FSU, I can't be more impressed with Toney Douglas. All they've asked him to do is be their best player every single time they take the court, and all he's done is succeed. He's used over 25% of FSU's possessions in 14 of 15 conference games, and has produced more than a point per possession in 14 of 15 as well (he's the only guy in the ACC to post 14 100+ offensive rating games). The only team to hold him under was Duke in the first conference game of the year, when he shot 7 of 23 and committed 5 turns. The Noles have become better as a couple guys have stepped up to help him (Kitchen, Alabi, and Echefu), but the reason they're any good in the first place is because of Douglas.

Here's the HD Box from Tuesday:

Duke 72, Virginia Tech 65

Duke finished off a solid week of road wins by valuing the basketball. Duke committed just 9 turnovers yesterday, and the last one came with 14:55 to play. By contrast, Virginia Tech coughed the ball up 19 times, leading to several easy baskets for the Devils. Duke is the hardest team in the ACC to turnover, and the best team in the ACC at forcing opponents to cough it up. That difference has been key for the Devils all year, and paid great dividends on Saturday.

Henderson and Singler led the way for Duke, one in the first half (Gerald) and one in the second (Kyle). Gerald had 21 points and 6 assists, but had to struggle to get it. He was looking way too much to take control and take his own shot. It ended up being his most inefficient performance in quite a while. He quite properly has been getting the largest share of Duke's possessions, but doing so within the flow of the offense. Yesterday, he dominated the ball to the point that it disrupted the offense at times.

Singler highlighted his versatility in a way that he hasn't done as often recently. He made some nice drives, displayed a variety of solid face-up moves, and knocked down the outside shot. He also looked solid at the line for the first time in a while. And special kudos go to Elliot Williams, whose harassing defense on Malcolm Delaney held the Hokie point guard to one of his poorest showings of the year.

There were some concerns. Duke had its worst rebounding game of the season, and got beat by a team that, on the whole, isn't that much bigger than the Devils. The offense stalled at times, and broke down into lots of dribbling, one or no passes, and jumpshots. We have a tendency to fall in love with the jumper (Henderson especially), which is fine if it comes after attacking the defense, but less fine if the ball never gets inside the free throw line on a possession. But on the whole, Duke handled a high effort game from a tough Hokies team, and walked out of Cassell with the victory. Here's the HD Box:


And, as a bonus, the +/- for VT. The numbers for Thompson reflect the quality of his play. He had a terrific defensive game. The numbers for Allen similarly reflected the quality of his play. It was a tough game for Jeff. Also, note that Delaney and Vassallo never sat, and Thompson played the whole second half.

		1st			2nd			Game
	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-	off	def	+/-
Thompson	15	15	0	40	36	4	55	51	4
Hudson	23	31	-8	38	31	7	61	62	-1
Davila	0	4	-4	0	0	0	0	4	-4
Bell	6	9	-3	10	12	-2	16	21	-5
Witcher	10	21	-11	16	11	5	26	32	-6
Delaney	25	36	-11	40	36	4	65	72	-7
Vassallo	25	36	-11	40	36	4	65	72	-7
Allen	21	28	-7	16	18	-2	37	46	-9
	25	36	-11	40	36	4	65	72	-7